*** Poll Shock -- Post Quinnipiac polls show huge debate bounce Obama now FL + 8 Oh + 8 Pa + 15

grantcart

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Wed Oct-01-08 09:57 AM
Original message

Edited on Wed Oct-01-08 10:33 AM by grantcart

Quinnipiac is showing a clear 2-5 point bounce and these swing states now going beyond the MOE into Obama's column

Quinnipiac University
9/27-29 (Post Debate) and 9/22-26 (Pre-Debate)
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Sample sizes listed below are from post-debate samples

Florida (836 LV, +/-2.9%)
Post Debate: Obama 51, McCain 43
Pre Debate: Obama 49, McCain 43
(9/9: Obama 43, McCain 50)

Ohio (825 LV, +/-3.4%)
Post Debate: Obama 50, McCain 42
Pre Debate: Obama 49, McCain 42
(9/9: Obama 49, McCain 44)

Pennsylvania: (832 LV, +/-3.4%)
Post Debate: Obama 54, McCain 39
Pre Debate: Obama 49, McCain 43
(9/9: Obama 48, McCain 45)

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/quinnipiac_fl_oh_pa_92729.php

edited to add cross tab discussion from quinnipiac

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1218

Florida

Even before Friday's debate, Florida voters had shifted from 50 - 43 percent for McCain in a September 11 Quinnipiac University poll to 49 - 43 percent for Obama.

Looking at post-debate numbers, Florida men likely voters back McCain 50 - 45 percent, while women back Obama 57 - 37 percent. McCain leads 50 - 45 percent edge among white voters.

Independent voters back Obama 52 - 40 percent, compared to 50 - 43 percent for McCain September 11.

Among the 79 percent of Florida voters who say they watched the debate, 49 percent said Obama did better, with 34 percent saying McCain won.

By a 58 - 33 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Obama, compared to 52 - 39 percent for McCain.

Palin gets a negative 36 - 39 percent favorability, down from 47 - 23 percent September 11. Democratic running mate Joe Biden has a 47 - 27 percent favorability, up from 38 - 28 percent.

The economy is the most important issue in the election, 60 percent of Florida voters say, and voters post-debate trust Obama more than McCain 53 - 39 percent to handle this issue, compared to 50 - 40 percent pre-debate.

Voters trust McCain more than Obama 52 - 41 percent to handle foreign policy, compared to 51 - 42 percent pre-debate.

Post debate, voters say 53 - 20 percent that Obama's role in trying to solve the economic crisis has been helpful more than harmful, compared to 45 - 31 percent for McCain.

Florida voters oppose 42 - 36 percent the $700 billion plan to rescue the economy.

"During the past three weeks, Florida voters lost their faith in Sen. McCain. His net favorability dropped in half and Sen. Obama's almost doubled over the same period. One look at independents shows the massive change. Three weeks ago, McCain had a seven-point edge among Florida independents. Today, Obama leads among that group by 12 points," Brown said.

Ohio

Post-debate, Obama leads 53 - 39 percent among Ohio women and ties McCain 46 - 46 percent among men. Independent voters go 46 percent for Obama and 42 percent for McCain, compared to 47 - 43 percent for McCain September 11.

The 64 percent of voters who watched the debate say Obama did better 49 - 33 percent.

Obama gets a 54 - 32 percent favorability in Ohio, with 49 - 40 percent for McCain.

Palin's favorability is split 35 - 35 percent, compared to 41 - 22 percent last time.

Biden's favorability is 38 - 27 percent, compared to 36 - 22 percent last time.

For 59 percent of Ohio voters, the economy is the biggest issue, and post-debate voters trust Obama more than McCain 50 - 39 percent to handle this issue, compared to 49 - 39 percent pre-debate.

Voters trust McCain more, 53 - 38 percent to handle foreign policy, compared to 51 - 39 percent pre-debate.

After the debate, voters say 50 - 23 percent that Obama's efforts on the economic crisis have been helpful more than harmful, compared to 43 - 33 percent for McCain.