Zogby poll numbers from Aug 12-14, 2004....

...Zogby is supposed to announce new numbers tonight and say that Bush has jumped 6 points????? Here are the numbers from two weeks ago:

Released: August 15, 2004
Kerry Favored Over Bush 47%-43% In Multi-Candidate Race; Voters With Passports Give Kerry 58%-35% Edge; Candidates in Dead Heat Among Investors; New Zogby America Poll Reveals

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry is favored over President George W. Bush (47%-43%) among likely voters when Ralph Nader, Libertarian, Constitution and Green Party presidential candidates are factored into the 2004 presidential race, according to a new Zogby America poll. The telephone poll of 1011 likely voters was conducted Thursday through Saturday (August 12-14, 2004). Overall results have a margin of sampling error of +/-3.1.

Presidential Candidates %
Aug12-14

Democrat -John Kerry 47

Republican-George W. Bush 43

Independent-Ralph Nader 2

Libertarian-Michael Badnarik 1

Constitution-Michael Peroutka .2

Green-David Cobb .2

Other .8

Undecided 7



The presidential ticket of Massachusetts Senator John Kerry and North Carolina Senator John Edwards gained two points since the Democratic National convention over President George W. Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney and now leads by seven points (50%-43%).

Presidential Ticket %
Aug12-14
July 27-29
July 6-7

Kerry-Edwards
50
48
48

Bush-Cheney
43
43
46

Undecided
6
8
5


President Bush’s overall job performance rating moved up three points to 47%, with more than half of respondents continuing to express their disapproval.

George W. Bush
8/12-14
7/27-29
7/6-7
6/2-5
5/10-13

Approve
47
44
49
46
42

Disapprove
52
56
51
54
58

Undecided
1
0
0
0
0


The majority of respondents say that the country is headed on the wrong track (51%), while 42% feel the US is on the right track.

US Direction
8/12-14
7/27-29
7/6-7
6/2-5
5/ 10-13

Wrong
51
50
48
50
54

Right (Correct)
42
41
47
44
40

Undecided
7
9
5
6
6


When asked if President Bush "deserves to be re-elected", 43% of likely voters responded positively, while the majority (53%) still says that it is "time for someone new."

George W. Bush
8/12-14
7/27-29
7/6-7
6/2-5
5/10-13

Re-Elect
43
42
43
43
42

Someone New
53
51
53
53
53

Undecided
4
7
4
5
6


As part of the Zogby-O’Leary Report Red and Blue States Monitor, in the Blues States, those won by former Vice-President Al Gore in the 2000 presidential election, Kerry receives 54% of support, as compared to Bush 37%. In the Red States, Bush is favored by 47%, while receives 41% support.

Presidential Ticket %
Blues States
Red States

Kerry
54
41

Bush
37
47

Undecided
6
6

<link> http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=851

Did he jump six points which means he is two point over Kerry or did he jump six points over Kerry....


The latter is much more disheartening than the former....

convention or anything very recent. Even the folks from Zogby say that! I heard Zogby on an interview during the Dem convention. He said no polling info is valid until several days after the convention. People need time to think about what they heard and saw, talk to their peers, family, and neighbors. He said they would start polling on Sat or Sun and finish up around Tues.

...but MSNBC reported about about an hour ago they expect Bush's number to rise 6 points, no further clarification was given, so if someone hears something please post.

Try to DU this poll: http://www.zogby.com/

Just wonderin...

Get a grip, folks.

...since end of July when Bush was trailing Kerry 43% to 47%, but now leads Kerry by 2%:

<Snip>

New Zogby America Poll September 2, 2004

President George W. Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney have taken a two point lead over Massachusetts Senator John Kerry and North Carolina Senator John Edwards (46%-44%), according to a new Zogby America poll. The telephone poll of 1001 likely voters was conducted from Monday through Thursday (August 30-September 2, 2004) during the Republican National Convention in New York City. Overall results have a margin of sampling error of +/-3.2.

Presidential Ticket %
Aug 30-Sept 2
July 27-29
July 6-7

Bush-Cheney
46
43
46

Kerry-Edwards
44
48
48

Undecided
9
8
5


Pollster John Zogby: “The President has had a very good convention following a good week where he also dominated the news with his own message: leadership, strength, decisiveness. Not only has he dominated the news but he also has thrown Kerry off his game. Last week I said the President’s top goal from the convention was to make sure his Republican ducks were all in a row. He needed to bring back and strengthen his ties with both wavering moderates (concerned about Iraq) and deficit hawks. His messages have clearly elucidated why the war and why the spending. This is the first time this year that the President has achieved 90% support among Republicans. He has also strengthened his numbers among investors.

“The President has widened his lead in the Red States and tightened things up considerably in the Blue States. For the first time in months he now leads among Independents and Catholics.

“While the President has improved his numbers, he still has a negative re-elect, job performance, and wrong direction.

“So the battle is now engaged. I have written before about the metaphor of the bouncing rubber ball. Take a rubber ball and bounce it as hard as you can. Then the laws of physics take over. The President has gotten three preceding bounces – each one shorter in height and duration. I think this week is the fourth bounce of the ball: this time only into the higher forties and perhaps only lasting a week or so.

“Remember that two weeks after the Democratic Convention of 2000, Newsweek’s cover story asked if Al Gore could be stopped. There will be leads and drops for both candidates and Kerry has to sharpen his message. At the same time, the economy is still the top issue and Friday’s unemployment figures will give us a hint as to whether the President will continue on the offensive or go back on the defensive.

Zogby International conducted telephone interviews of 1001 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from Monday, August 30 through Thursday, September 2, 2004. The margin of error is +/3.2 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, gender and presidential voter to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

<Link> http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=857

Again these poll numbers have a margin of error of +/- 3% so it's still anyone's ballgame.

it was a 6 point swing. And incumbent Bush can only get 46%. He is toast. incumbents should be over 50% at the very LEAST.
Kerry just rode out a very rough period. We are in great shape.
We just need to GOTV.