How nervous does the Bradley effect make you?

The Bradley effect is a well-known theory that nonblacks, embarrassed by their bigotry, lie in surveys by saying they will support the black candidate when in the end they support the white candidate. This effect has been at play in quite a few races in which the black candidate had a 10 point or more edge in pre-election polling and even an edge in exit polling, only to lose the election. There's more here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

Though I always intuitively wondered about such a phenomenon. My mom calls her take on it "the Bubba effect." Scary that it's been empirically established.

fraud.

Why should a racist PRETEND that he was going to vote for a black candidate?

but they just are, so they lie. Simple enough.

Duke

for the Republican.

I hope it is off-set by the under-polling of young first-time voters. It may already be beyond that.:-)

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/persistent-myth-of-bradley-effect.html


If there's an apparent massive swing to McCain on the day of the election, it'll be because of something more nefarious than the Bradley effect.

3. Confusing Exit Polls with pre-Election Polls. Unlike the normal, pre-election polls, exit polls conducted on the day of the election did substantially overstate Barack Obama's margins throughout the primaries. This is something to keep in mind at about 5 PM on November 4, when Matt Drudge and Jim Geraghty begin to leak exit poll results. It is not anything to worry about now, when we are trying to forecast the outcome from pre-election polling.

Because I had been worried when I heard about the exit poll thing.

So therefore most will outwardly exclaim that they would never vote for a black man. Okay.. they don't say this in mixed company, but given the slightest opportunity they are quite proud of their opinion. They are NOT embarrassed.

At times it makes me nervous, but then I remember that Bradley ran in the 80s, before the internet and before Rushbo emboldened people who are racists.

That anyone would be intimidated to tell a pollster they were voting for a black candidate just to seem as if they were not racist strikes me as a very 70s/early 80s sort of attitude that the right wingers of today have no reason to emulate. They have plenty of excuses for voting for McCant and in fact it is quite believable they would never have voted for a Dem anyway.

Then there's also the way Palin gives them an excuse to vote for mcCant without being charged with racism and so they charge us with sexism. Gives them no motive to be too embarassed to tell a pollster that are voting for McCant.

Tons of repugs are going to be closing that curtain and not admitting to anyone that they too voted for Obama...

I don't want it to be so, but we don't get to choose our own facts.

Recent polling result that I've seen on here seem to be saying to me Obama might get as high as 58% or so, but I don't think it will get that high. Between the electioneering going on now and latent racism, it'll probably be 52% and +40 or so EV.

:shrug:

Gut feeling.



This is interesting, from the Wikipedia article:

Little or no evidence of Bradley effect.

... but does it exist in Independents... that is the question.

Obama consistently did better in exit polling than he did in the real result. People lied about who they voted for. Also, New Hampshire was a good example - Obama led by 10 points on the eve of the vote, but ended up losing.

The "Bradley effect" is a real phenomenon and has to be taken into account. I don't believe it will be as dramatic as it has been in other elections, but it will happen.

People that are embarrassed to say they are voting for Obama, but when they get in the booth...

Stomache hurting....N/T

anymore.

Yes it did exist in the past, but I believe it's pretty much gone today. There's a lot of evidence to back up that contention; far more than there is to suggest that it still exists.

As a quick primer see FiveThiryEight - The Persistent Myth of the Bradley Effect

I'm worried about it Missouri and Virgina, also, if Obama were white I'd bet he would be up 15 points now.

let's face it, we live in a racist nation

and---social scientists know that people lie on surveys all the time

surveys of all sorts----including polls----are very unreliable

the good thing about them is they're cheap; but very unreliable

people will lie and say whatever they think the interviewer wants to hear, or they'll say whatever makes them look good.

then, in private and anonymously, they express their true feelings

or, they have a last minute emotional experience that affects their vote

bottom line: we need a big margin and we should not get complacent

They can use the "Bradley Effect" to cover up ANY amount of election fraud.
The final results could differ from the polls by 20 points, and they could
explain it all away as the "Bradley Effect" and most people would buy it.

Seriously. He has given much more doubt to people. and the Caribou Barbie Effect is real. When it comes down to it, I think that far more people will have cold feet about electing a frail and elderly man with a small town clown as his running mate, than have doubts about a black man. The racists are going to vote the way they vote, the religious extremists will vote their own way, but reasonable people will have doubts about McCain. And I suspect that there will be quite a few repubs who will vote for Obama in the privacy of the booth. Much more than a Bradley effect, sort of the opposite. I sincerely believe that Biden against Palin the other night sealed that secret republican vote.

there might be.

In addition, there will be the "Dumbass for picking Palin Effect"!
Watch for it at a voting booth near you.

voting for Obama. I've thought for a while that in some working class neighborhoods, some guys might be hesitant to say they're supporting the black law professor over the white war hero.

Al Giordano writes about this kind of experience he had in Pennsylvania this week. He went to the bowling alley that Obama visited during the primaries. He asked a group of guys who they're supporting, and they all said McCain. But away from the group, two different guys approached Al and told them they were supporting Obama.

http://narcosphere.narconews.com/thefield/theyre-out-here-altoona-mccain-country

Given this, and that the polls have underestimated the black vote all year along with the youth vote, and given the far superior Obama ground game, the final vote count will be at least two or three points better for Obama than indicated by the polls. And the polls for states with a strong black population were wildly off the mark during the primaries, sometimes underestimating Obama's total by more than 10%.

One month from today we will see an epic landslide, with Obama winning by 200+ electoral votes.

http://people.iq.harvard.edu/%7Edhopkins/wilder13.pdf">No More Wilder Effect


Of course, that's not to say it couldn't rear its head again -- especially if the McCain campaign managed to polarize the electorate along racial lines. But I don't see that happening.

should negate that problem. I believe Rasmussen and Surveyusa use those techniques. Nontheless, I believe any such effect will be cancelled out by all the first time voters with cellphones, who are not being reached.