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I like the idea that Obama is responding to McCain's plan to turn the campaign negative. It's good window dressing, but it's largely bullshit. Obama's been facing negative swift Boating shit since August, but he had to play the cool role because the undecideds were still up for grabs in large numbers. They cemented strongly after the two debates we've seen. That's not really going to change. Obama's holding steady at 48-50%, with McCain fluctuating between 41-43%. That means that about 7% are still "unaccounted for." McCain can't get 100% of those. Even if he takes 60% of them, Obama still wins big. These dynamics aren't going to change this late in the race. People were waiting for a signal that Obama was presidential material, and that mcCain/Palin weren't. That picture solidified during Obama's gentle performance, and during Palin's disastrous debate performance.
So, why launch the attacks now? Clearly, there's a feeling of striking back at the McCain/Palin attacks. But there's also something else, as follows:
1) A street fight now revs up the Democratic base. They still need turnout of the base to be large, and a month long slugfest gets everybody invested. 2) The independents who are not decided will tune out. Many of them will not vote. This isn't a bad thing given the polls. McCain needs a) erosion of the Obama brand (which simply isn't going to happen this late in the game) and b) high turnout among sudden indy converts, which is precisely what his decision to go hard negative will prevent.
It's a conundrum for the McCain people, because in order to accomplish a), you necessarily subvert b). They have to work at cross purposes to their real needs. They've opted to gamble on erosion. The fact that Obama is responding shows that he doesn't see erosion really happening, and the undecideds contest is already decided.
Finally, it's a money thing. The deeper McCain gets pulled into the slugfest, the more he has to spend on nit, rather than producing a positive plan. This is the key reason why erosion will not set it: Obama is the only one out there with a positive plan.
Two weeks ago attacking didn't make much sense. Today it makes plenty of sense. So get ready to rumble, brothers and sisters. But keep your shit together and hold the line.
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