The Daily Widget, Mon 10/6 – O-362, M-176 – Obama Leveling Off; Happy Bday, Lil Math Dude!

Happy 5th Birthday, Lil Math Dude! :party: :party: :bounce: :bounce: :hi:


1. ANALYSIS

Twenty-seven state polls have been released since last Thursday, showing five states strengthening for Barack Obama and only two states weakening.

Our Strong Obama column is filling up with states (see Figure 3c below). Four states moved into the Strong Obama category since last Thursday: Michigan (17), New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (21) and Washington (11). Obama now has 220 electoral votes from states in which he is leading by 10 points or greater. This is more than double the electoral votes John McCain is winning by 10 points or greater. McCain’s Strong column continues to lose states, as Montana moves into the Weak McCain column. Could Arkansas be far behind?

Minnesota and Virginia are still polling for Obama, but both states have weakened a bit since last Thursday. Minnesota moves from Strong Blue to Weak Blue, while Virginia moves back into the Lean Blue category.

Obama’s popular vote lead over John McCain climbs to 3.5%, or 4.5 million votes (see Figure 4a below). This is the largest lead Obama has held since late July. And Obama continues to widen his lead in the swing state polls by an overall margin of 50% to 42% (see Figure 5c below).


Note: Trend lines in graphs are only accurate up to five days in the future, so we need to view the trend lines with that in mind.




2. NEW STATE POLLS


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


Colorado Obama 44, McCain 43 (Ciruli Associates, 9/21, +/- 4.4, 501 RV)
Colorado Obama 44, McCain 44 (Mason-Dixon, 10/1, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Georgia Obama 44, McCain 50 (Insider Advantage, 9/30, +/- 4.0, 561 LV)
Indiana Obama 45, McCain 46 (Research 2000, 9/30, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Kentucky Obama 42, McCain 52 (Rasmussen, 9/30, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Maine Obama 51, McCain 46 (Rasmussen, 10/2, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Michigan Obama 51, McCain 41 (Public Policy Polling, 10/1, +/- 3.6, 731 LV)
Minnesota Obama 46, McCain 47 (Survey USA, 10/1, +/- 3.7, 725 LV)
Minnesota Obama 55, McCain 37 (Star-Tribune, 10/2, +/- 3.7, 1084 LV)
Montana Obama 44, McCain 52 (Rasmussen, 10/1, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Nebraska Obama 37, McCain 56 (Rasmussen, 9/30, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Nevada Obama 51, McCain 47 (Rasmussen, 10/2, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 49, McCain 37 (St. Anselm College, 9/30, +/- 3.5, 823 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 53, McCain 43 (Rasmussen, 10/2, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
New Mexico Obama 52, McCain 44 (Survey USA, 9/30, +/- 3.8, 698 LV)
New Mexico Obama 49, McCain 44 (Rasmussen, 10/1, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
New York Obama 58, McCain 36 (Siena College, 9/29, +/- 4.0, 631 RV)
North Carolina Obama 50, McCain 47 (Rasmussen, 9/30, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
North Carolina Obama 44, McCain 42 (Elon University, 9/30, +/- 4.6, 477 RV)
Ohio Obama 49, McCain 42 (Columbus Dispatch, 9/30, +/- 2.0, 2262 LV)
Ohio Obama 49, McCain 43 (Democracy Corps, 10/1, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 50, McCain 41 (Muhlenberg College, 10/1, +/- 4.0, 610 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 50, McCain 40 (Morning Call, 10/2, +/- 4.0, 602 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 51, McCain 39 (Muhlenberg College, 10/3, +/- 4.0, 597 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 50, McCain 40 (Morning Call, 10/4, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Virginia Obama 45, McCain 48 (Mason-Dixon, 10/1, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Washington Obama 53, McCain 43 (Rasmussen, 10/2, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)



3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)



^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.






4. POPULAR VOTE SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 126 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 4b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.



5. OBAMA’S SEVENTEEN



^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.



^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.



^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.



6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.






7. LINKS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Saturday Data Dump
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes


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:(

Ah well... good morning anyway!

:D

And if he takes his beating well, we'll throw in Idaho.

:donut: Good morning, Curtland! :hi:

Not 44-42. That was a question asked about the economy.

I'll double-check them. :D

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

I noticed it when I actually went to the questionnaire.

We went and saw Obama in Asheville, yesterday. Along with 26,000-30,000 other people!

:bounce:

NC has the motivation, and should strengthen. Everything is looking great!

We missed you of Friday, I was almost late for work waiting for the Widget! :P

And in North Carolina, too!

Don't be late :D

:donut: Good morning, tek! :hi:

Happy Birthday, Little Math Dude. I really missed The Daily Widget on Friday.

The widget missed you, too! :D

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

or

Not sure which, haven't slept yet.

Four weeks from tomorrow we'll have the final poll...the vote itself. Obama by 30+.

Such a short period of time, but soooo long in coming for us!

Get some sleep ... I'll be going back to bed soon, lol (playing hookey today)

Good night! :hi:

Thank you phrigndumass :hug: and :cry: for the Packers today.....

McCain +1 ... while other pollsters are showing at least a 10-point lead for Obama. :crazy:

I missed the Pack yesterday, I was traveling home. Good thing I missed it, lol

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

>full size:
>
>
>sized for avatar use:
>





Because the Pollitzer Prize is not for everyday use....



This art work was provided by radfringe, a talented cartoonist of DU. Why he agreed to do it, I will never know....but it sure suits you!

Events will conspire to put Obama on a wave that washes all the stench and filth and contamination of BushCo and their vampire crowd out to sea. Of course, we'll have to put some work into cleaning up the oceans after that, but it will be worthwhile and POSSIBLE!

Can we take Texas, please? It would be the cherry on the sundae.

It's a stop in a tall building to catch a different elevator that goes higher :D

If we win Texas, I'll serve it to you on a silver platter with a cherry on top, lol ... I'm series, I will!!1

:hi:

LOVE IT! :D

Please thank radfringe for me (I'm still giggling) ...

:donut: Good morning, Demeter! :hi:

Thanks for taking the time to do this! I'll use the avatar with tongue firmly implanted in cheek, lol

:hi:

I love it! Radfringe has outdone herself/himself!

for the record: it's "her"self :rofl:

but upthread referred to you as 'he'. Of course we all know that political cartoonists are male. :P

is there a slim chance that that might backfire?

C'mon Texans, wake up and smell the victory.

But all the stars would need to be aligned perfectly, and the Latino vote would need to be strong for Obama.

As always magnificent work, Phrig.

Btw, I shared a comment from one of my friends earlier:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7330027

Your Head Polar Bear Hunter is getting famous all over. :)

Hope she is getting razzed all over as well :D

:hi:

It ain't droppin'! :D

:donut: Good morning, Kukesa! :hi:

state. I was listening to NPR -- they were interviewing students at that college in Virginia that was founded by Jerry Falwell in regards to how hard the school is working to get out the vote. The school's population of 10,000 students is 80 to 90 percent Republican and they think they alone might be able to prevent Virginia from going blue. All the out-of-state students are being encouraged to register to vote in Virginia.

One student, a snotty-sounding girl, said she was from North Carolina but has registered to vote in Virginia because she is "confident" that North Carolina will go red regardless and that Virginia needs her vote more.

I want to make that bitch cry on Election Day. :evilgrin:

:rofl:

:hi:

+12 and +10... That should at least put it back in "Weak Obama" territory, yes?

I'm seeing VA +7 after inputting those polls :D

Foxmussen also has a new VA poll today, Obama +2 ...

:hi:

to see Arizona or Alaska go blue.. or both ...

I can dream can't I?

Unless Palin is taken to jail in shackles with Stevens ...

:hi:

It WILL happen, I believe, but it would be so poetic if it happened BEFORE the election....

Let's hope the shackles are conjoined, lol

from now on when I don't have anything really pithy to say I am just going to say Michigan.


Michigan.

There how can you not smile.


Oh and great move to give a negative speech in New Mexico John.


Uh Mexico is out of reach there John boy. Why not hop over to Hawaii?

:rofl: No way, no how, sir!

I didn't hear about McCain's New Mexico speech, I guess I'll have to look for it, lol

:hi:

Realistically Obama could only pick up another 30 to 40 EVs. To get over 400 would be unthinkable, in fact if he gets above 400 I don't think it would be at a number around 400 it would be more like 450 which would mean, TX, AK, MS, SD, ND, AZ.

Agreed on everything you said. And the next bubble that would burst (if it bursts) would tip Georgia, Montana, South Carolina, Arkansas and West Virginia as well, besides the states you listed. It seems unrealistic at the moment, you're right. But stranger things have happened :D

One month is a very long time in politics ... Things could still swing 100 electoral votes in either direction at this point.

:hi:

But I am already counting WV for Obama, too much blue around them to not get swallowed up! If Georgia falls it will be Katie bar the door time! If Texas switched it would be a 9.0 on the Richter scale!

West Virginia is the next state after Missouri and Indiana to tip. Missouri tipped today. Also, Kentucky is weakening for McCain, and that borders West Virginia as well. I wouldn't be surprised!

:hi: