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Summary Aggregate Polls, Projections and Graphs
Sensitivity Analysis: Five Undecided Vote Scenarios
National Polls, State Polls and Projection Tables
Election Calculator Model
Aggregate State Polls and Projections
National Poll Moving Average Projection Trend
Electoral Vote and Win Probability
Electoral Vote and Vote Share
Sensitivity Analysis: Effects of Undecided Voters
Battleground States: Win Probabilities
Monte Carlo Simulation: Electoral Vote Frequency
Monte Carlo Simulation: 5000 Election Trials
Uncounted and Switched Votes: Effect on Electoral Vote
Uncounted and Switched Votes: Effect on Vote Share
2004 Election Model Summary
Final State and National Polls, Projections, Exit Polls, Recorded Vote
Current Summary Statistics
State Model
Aggregate Average
Projection (2-party)
Electoral Vote
Monte Carlo Trial Wins
National Model
5-Poll Average
Projection (2-party)
Obama
49.37
52.73
358
5000
50.00
54.56
McCain
45.03
47.27
180
0
42.40
45.44
weighted average based on 2004 recorded vote
Base case scenario: 60% Undecided Vote to Obama
EV = ∑ state win probability (i) * EV(i), i=1,51 states
Simulated electoral vote (random number vs. state win probability)
Rasmussen, Gallup, Research 2000, Hotline, Marist
60% Undecided vote to Obama
Optimal Resource Allocation (Key States)A new feature of the model is a ranking measure of optimal allocation of resources for key states. The allocation will be highest for the most competitive battleground states (high electoral vote and low polling spread). These are the five highest ranked states and allocation percentages (see the State model):
1- FL (19.7),
2- NC (15.3),
3-MO (12.8),
4-IN (11.2),
5-OH (8.8). In other words, these states are where Obama should spend most (68%) of his money.
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