Sabato: "Is the electoral dam breaking for Obama?"

All season, political observers have been speculating when, if ever, the Electoral College and the state and national polls would reflect the basic pro-Democratic fundamentals of the presidential election year. Those fundamentals, historic true-blues (pun intended in this case), include presidential popularity (the Republican incumbent is at rock-bottom), a horribly weak economy, and a disliked foreign war. All point to a sizeable Democratic victory.

Yet the public opinion polls have often painted a very different picture. While the surveys haven't been as volatile as some have suggested, and Obama has usually been ahead, the bottom-line numbers were close. Most of the summer, Barack Obama led by a small margin, and then John McCain vaulted ahead of Obama with a sizeable convention bounce in early September. Some believed an upset by McCain was in the making---history be damned. Was Obama a flawed candidate? Was his racial identity preventing a victory? Was McCain running a brilliant tactical campaign that would enable him to cheat history?

On July 24th, the Crystal Ball published an essay by Alan Abramowitz, Thomas E. Mann, and this author, entitled "The Myth of a Toss-Up Election". Controversial at the time, it suggested that, sooner or later, the election fundamentals would be reflected in the polls, and Obama would assume a strong frontrunner's position. The meltdown of America's financial superstructure in late September was clearly the triggering event that re-focused voters on the two most likely motives for casting a Democratic ballot: the economy and President Bush's stewardship of it. When the history of the 2008 campaign is written, the most fateful words uttered may be John McCain's clumsy statement in mid-September: "The fundamentals of our economy are strong."

Through the first two presidential debates and the one vice presidential debate, Obama has been able to maintain his newly won lead, averaging about 5% in RealClearPolitics' poll of polls. And the instant polls have unanimously awarded both debate victories to Obama by sizeable margins.
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