Study: polls may underestimate Obama support

In a reversal, a new study today says that polls my be UNDERestimating Barack Obama's support by 3 percent to 4 percent nationally.

The study by two researchers at the University of Washington suggests the country may be witnessing a reversal of the so-called Bradley effect, in which support for African-American candidates is overstated when people talk to pollsters but then vote against the candidate in the privacy of the polling booth.

Using data from 32 Democratic primaries this year, psychologist Anthony Greenwald and political scientist Bethany Albertson said they did find a Bradley effect of polls overestimating Obama's support in three states: California, New Hampshire and Rhode Island.

But they found what they called a reverse Bradley effect in 12 other states.

"The Bradley effect has mutated," Greenwald said. "We are seeing it in several states, but the reverse effect is much stronger."

A key reason, he said, is social pressure.

"If you call people on the phone today and ask who they will vote for, some will give responses influenced by what may be understood locally as the more desirable response," Greenwald said.

"It is easy to suppose that these people are lying to pollsters. I don't believe that. What I think is they may be undecided and experiencing social pressure which could increase their likelihood of naming the white candidate if their region or state has a history of white dominance. They also might give the name of the Republican if the state is strongly Republican."

He noted that blacks and whites in polls underestimated their support for Obama in such states as Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Oklahoma and South Dakota.

http://washingtonbureau.typepad.com/election2008/2008/10/study-polls-may.html

"Obama Effect" new proposed wikipedia article (though likely to be deleted as, basically, too new):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obama_effect

I've been wondering if there is any concrete evidence of its existence.

Nate from fivethirtyeight.com did a similar analysis and reached the same conclusion. The problem is, it's not possible to extrapolate primary behavior to the GE.
Nevertheless, I remain cautiously optimistic that polls are underestimating Obama support slightly due to demographic reasons (many new young and African American voters, cell phone only voters, etc).

that the polls might not be accruate...


rocknation

People have little reason to lie, but asked face to face the situation might be different.
Not saying that they are wrong. Which I hope not.