Calling all DU polling experts. Check this theory?

Okay, Time / CNN has Shrub up 11 pts. Here are the possibilities:

a. This is the first of a wave of new polling showing the same thing, validating this poll. We all stick our heads in the oven.

b. The next wave of polls shows the race much closer, proving Time / CNN to be an outlier. We sigh a huge sigh of relief.

So, here is my pet theory du jour(not a prediction, mind you). Let's assume this poll is an outlier, and for the fun of it, assume malicious Rovian machinations behind putting out such a cooked poll.

Now here is my question? How much damage could this dirty trick, if that is what it is, actually do? I'm wondering if any of the mighty DU braintrust knows how potent the winning image factor is?

Apparently there must be some compelling research out there that shows a bunch of sheep like, relatively undecided voter, are deeply suggestable and will always go with the perceived winner, the guy everybody else seems to be supporting. So, again, here is my question, in more detail:

Let's assume a close fought, even race (45 / 45/ 10) and suddenly a rigged outlier poll shows a big improvement for one guy, to (50 / 40/ 10), and gets big play in the media.

Days later other polls are taken. If these unrigged polls would have shown it was still a tie race, how much influnce could the outlier poll have on the sheep voters who lack convictions of their own? 1%? 3%? 10%? Anybody know??? How many points is a well executed poll scam worth???

I'm just curious??

Stop reading so much into polls -- everybody.

No scamming is needed; all populations are inherently biased, so careful selection of a population does the dirty work.

Polls are good for analyzing trends. And that's all.

--bkl

Let's keep working hard, getting our own personal messages out to friends and neighbors on Kerry's behalf and we won't need to worry about what polls are saying what or what right-wing media outlet is saying or doing.


Let's stay positive and on track here.

Its time for all of us to stop complaing, and get down to the real work of putting the country back on track. I can't wait to see what the naysayers have to say on Nov. 2nd after Kerry wins the election.

Two other polls taken over the same time period as the Time Poll, Zogby and ARG, show pretty much what we have been seeing all along. Zogby has Bush ahead of Kerry by three point in a poll with a three point MoE, and ARG shows them dead equal.

The ARG polls is far more comprehensive, as it polls with and without Nader, and oddly enough, throw Nader into the mix, and Kerry is a point ahead of Bush. ARG also polls Registered Voters. Likely voters adn All adults and in REgistered Voters and All Adults, again, in ARG's poll, Kerry leads Bush by one point again, making the polls neck and neck, essentiall. I would view the Time polls as an outlier, just as the Gallop polls after Edwards Nomination which showed Bush ahead of Kerry even though all other polls shoewd Kerry a few points ahead of Bush, or equal with him.

"pull" could this new winning image Time / CNN poll have on the next ARG poll, all other things being equal?

In other words I'm wondering if there are any dirty tricks behind how CNN runs their poll, how damaging could this be??

The speech was shockingly good, probably his best ever, plus Bush already had the momentum and numbers inevitably surge immediately after the final convention. People who cite Dukakis's huge lead in '88 or Bush's commanding lead in 2000 conveniently fail to point out those leads were completely wiped out by the nominee of the 2nd convention, who suddenly had the lead. Even with extremely few undecided, it's hardly shocking an immediate poll gave Bush a sizeable bump. It will settle in two weeks or less, to a moderate Bush lead that is still easily overcome if Kerry wins the debates and makes the case we all know is correct.

On edit: I failed to mention the validity of your "jump to the winning side" aspect of your conspiracy theory, even if I reject a poll could have been manipulated to that outcome. In 2000, Bush was declared the presidential winner prematurely by all the networks, and that certainly led to a mythical position of rightfulness and inevitability throughout the chaotic month in Florida. Also, about one year after the election there was a study indicating a significant number of Gore voters denied ever voting for him, because they did not want to be associated with a "loser."

That will be a good time to assess where the race stands. With the staggered conventions dictating Kerry's spending limits in August followed by the GOPCON, I figured that Bush would hit his high water mark between 9/1 and 9/15. At that time we can see where the horse race stands taking an average of the better polls. If Bush is +3 or less (i.e. 48-45-2 w/5% undecided), Kerry should be in good shape to close strong and capture "momentum". If Bush is +5 or more it's gonna be tougher but not out of reach. But you always gotta remember the bottom line is the Electoral College. Kerry has to hang on to the Gore states, add NH and NV for 269. One more state wins but if Bush starts pulling away nationally it will be hard to flip that "one more" state.

sociologist, and, basically, in this political climate, the undecideds go to the perceived winner of the dogfight.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=659221