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Has anyone heard anything about Obama's internal polling?

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mvd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-12-08 04:01 PM
Original message
Has anyone heard anything about Obama's internal polling?
I was down at Obama HQ in Collegeville, PA today, and someone told me that Obama's internal polling only has him up 2-3% nationally. This seems low to me so I wanted to see what other DUers have heard.
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ThePhilosopher04 Donating Member (435 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-12-08 04:03 PM
Response to Original message
1. I'm sure they poll conservatively...
better to err on the side of it being close than the other way around.
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Bicoastal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-12-08 04:04 PM
Response to Original message
2. This "someone"...did he look like this?
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sunnybrook Donating Member (986 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-12-08 04:06 PM
Response to Reply #2
8. I almost lost my soda!
:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
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Richardo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-12-08 04:15 PM
Response to Reply #2
18. That's the funniest thing I've seen in a long while...
:rofl:
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Scooter24 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-12-08 04:33 PM
Response to Reply #2
26. LMAO!
:rofl:
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vanderBeth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-12-08 04:38 PM
Response to Reply #2
28. ZOMG!
:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
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Median Democrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-12-08 04:05 PM
Response to Original message
3. Do campaigns conduct national polls? Or, just targetted states?
I was wondering what is the utility of a national poll for a campaign? For example, why spend resources polling Utah or Hawaii? We all find the national polls interesting, but isn't the real value of polling for strategic purposes is to know which states to target?
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mvd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-12-08 04:14 PM
Response to Reply #3
16. He seemed to be saying nationally, but next time..
Edited on Sun Oct-12-08 04:14 PM by mvd
I'm going to ask him where he got these numbers from.
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rainbow4321 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-12-08 04:05 PM
Response to Original message
4. Thinking if we all knew what their internal polls said
They couldn't all them "internal"
:-)
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RichGirl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-12-08 04:32 PM
Response to Reply #4
24. Exactly...if anybody walking into the office could find out what those....
...numbers are, we'd be hearing them on the news everyday.
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THUNDER HANDS Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-12-08 04:05 PM
Response to Original message
5. I doubt it
If that were true, McCain would be getting similar numbers, and he's not running the campaign of a guy who's neck and neck. He's running the campaign of a guy who's really far behind.
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mvd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-12-08 04:12 PM
Response to Reply #5
10. Yes, that's why I don't believe it
Maybe this guy got old numbers or was misinformed.
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Bicoastal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-12-08 04:14 PM
Response to Reply #10
17. Well who was it--someone in an official position or just a grunt?
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mvd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-12-08 04:16 PM
Response to Reply #17
20. He was just a volunteer, but says he is working..
full time on the campaign. Lots of supporters came in, though, which was good news in this area.
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Bicoastal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-12-08 04:21 PM
Response to Reply #20
21. Oh pfft--what would he know?
Honestly, that's the LEAST type of credible source--a low-rung footsoldier who claims to know the Internals of the most massive campaign in the country.
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mvd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-12-08 04:29 PM
Response to Reply #21
22. That's why I posted this thread
The info. certainly didn't seem infallible from him.
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nsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-12-08 04:05 PM
Response to Original message
6. What's so great about internal polling anyway?
I've often heard people refer to campaigns' internal polling as some kind of gold standard, always to be trusted over public polls. But why? How are they different?
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lwcon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-12-08 04:06 PM
Response to Original message
7. If you've ever been internally polled
You know just how painful that can be.

(Old Letterman gag).
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FrenchieCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-12-08 04:09 PM
Response to Original message
9. Does Obama's camp do national polling?
I tend to doubt it.....
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Bicoastal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-12-08 04:13 PM
Response to Reply #9
12. You know, mvd, I'm becoming more and more convinced this person, who meant well...
...was obviously trying to get you guys fired up, to keep y'all from getting complacent.

But yeah, that makes no sense unless they were talking about a particular state.
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RichGirl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-12-08 04:30 PM
Response to Reply #12
23. I tend to agree with that.
Edited on Sun Oct-12-08 04:34 PM by RichGirl
I've worked on campaigns and they always tell you to work as if we are 10 pts behind. In my experience, internal poll numbers are not shared with staffers and volunteers. If they shared poll numbers with EVERYBODY...then we'd be hearing about them all the time. I've never heard from anyone or any media outlet what a candidates internal poll numbers are. They only speculate based on the candidates behavior.
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Hansel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-12-08 04:13 PM
Response to Reply #9
13. Good point. It's a waste of money. They're smarter than that. n/t
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-12-08 04:13 PM
Response to Original message
11. I hate to say it but campaigns love a "sense of urgency" among volunteers and staffers.
That urgency...er "anxiety"...is likely to be more palpable if the word at HQs is a 2-point lead than..say...8 points.

We don't know what the internals are but surely they are looking at state-level and not national data.
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Occam Bandage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-12-08 04:13 PM
Response to Original message
14. It's possible the guy was bullshitting.
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-12-08 04:14 PM
Response to Original message
15. the Obama campaign specifically pays no interest in national polls

Want to see what the internal polls are saying - look at where they are speaking.

For the most part all of the principles are appearing in swing red states.
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dbmk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-12-08 04:15 PM
Response to Original message
19. Maybe he was just trying to keep you focused and working :)
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graywarrior Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-12-08 04:32 PM
Response to Original message
25. Whenever I ask the Obama people at my local campaign office
they always tell me it's close. Then they ask me if I want to stick around and make as many calls as I can, or canvass or do something to turn out every voter. AND...they are always working a fever pitch, as if Obama is behind in the polls. I think they keep the real polling results close to the vest so that we all work hard at getting every voter. They will never EVER tell us the real results.
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RichGirl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-12-08 04:37 PM
Response to Reply #25
27. They probably don't know what they are.
I think ONLY the top strategists know.

Imagine if they shared...if they were high people would become complacent, if they were low, people would become discouraged. No good can come from sharing internal poll numbers!
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graywarrior Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-12-08 04:49 PM
Response to Reply #27
29. Exactly.
I think that's why McCain is acting out of desperation....because he knows.
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