Simple Electoral Vote Math

When it comes to elections, there are facts and then there are FACTS. And one fact of this election is, Barack Obama is going to win certain states, and along with them, their electoral votes. Another fact is, Obama will have to fight, tooth-and-nail, for some states with John McCain. While not a fact, it is likely that Obama will not win some states dues to voter fraud by the Republicans.

But, let's not get worried. Go to 270towin.com and set the entire interactive map to neutral.

Then, fill in the states you KNOW Obama will win.
(I picked: IL, NY, CA, MD, DE, MA, VT, RI, NJ, DC, HI, and CT, which total 168 electoral votes)

Then, fill in the ones he is almost certain to win, based on today's polls.
(I picked PA, ME, NH, MI, MN, IA, OR, and WI, bringing Obama to a total of 259 electoral votes; or only 11 from victory)

See what happened? He's at 259 electoral votes. Without Florida. Without Ohio. Without Missouri. Without Colorado. Without New Mexico. Without Virginia. Without Nevada. Without North Carolina (OK, I added the last two because I'm a dreamer).

If Obama wins Virginia, where he is up by 8 points, according to the latest poll (fivethirtyeight.com), then he wins the presidency.

If Obama wins Florida, then he wins the presidency.

If Obama wins Ohio, then he wins the presidency.

If Obama wins Missouri, then he wins the presidency.

If Obama wins North Carolina, then he wins the presidency.

If Obama wins Colorado AND either New Mexico or Nevada, then he wins the presidency.

IT'S ALMOST INEVITABLE THAT OBAMA WILL WIN.





For John McCain to win (and fivethirtyeight.com gives him a 5% chance right now), he would have to:

WIN every state Obama is not currently leading in the polls (basically the entire Deep South and Great Plains)
AND WIN Florida (doubtful)
AND WIN Ohio (doubtful)
AND WIN Indiana (even money)
AND WIN Virginia (doubtful)
AND WIN Colorado (unlikely)

And then, even if he could do those things, he would win the presidency by only 3-8 electoral votes. That's his ceiling, his absolute max.

If Obama banks one more state with 11+ electoral votes, it's over.

Simple Electoral Vote Math.

Cheating. They do that you know.

But the point is that Obama holds such a strong hand that he cannot be cheated out of all those states. He is almost at the point of only needing one.

McCain's people would have to rig 6-10 states. They don't have it in them.