Political Science Electoral Model Predicts Obama Landslide (O = 55.7%, M = 44.3%)

The new edition of PS (a journal written by and for Political Science professionals) includes a bunch of mathematical models that predict the outcome of election 2008. Professor Holbrook, of the University of Wisconsin, proposes a model which focuses principally on incumbency and national conditions.

The upshot: Holbrook’s predicted outcome is 44.3% of the two-party vote for McCain and 55.7% for Obama (See page 3 in PDF linked to below).

A couple caveats: First, the model does not consider the candidates' personality characteristics which, as we know, matter quite a bit. Second, the model does not consider wildly irrational voting behaviors, which are rather common. Nonetheless, Obama is in good shape, based on the objective scientific realities of the current electoral environment.

PDF -- http://www.apsanet.org/imgtest/PSOct08Holbrook.pdf

Ya. What's up with that? Bring Back Alvarez!