Is Mississippi a toss up? At least one EC site thinks so

http://www.270towin.com/

Please remember that a good non-white (AA, Hispanic, Asian, other) turnout of say 40% or more of total voters combined with just 21 - 22% of the white voters (liberals, students, professionals, union, and retirees from the Midwest) equals a very close race in MS. This is my pick for the election night shocker.

Mississippi Demographics (2006)

White 58% Black 37.2% Hispanic 2.5% Other 2.2%

Total non-white population: about 42%

Do the math:

22% x 58% = 12.76
95% x 37.2% = 35.34
60% x 4.7 % = 2.82

Obama wins at 50.92 to 49.08 not counting assorted third party like Bob Barr

The ground game and the constant informational ads are doing well in this area.

I haven't seen one McCain ad in 2 weeks. I see Obamas ads about 4-6 times a night.

Although we live almost on the state line near VA and the state is in play. I'm hopeful TN might go at least a little purple this year.

From the hard work that many are putting in on the ground here in Eastern TN and the shift in demographics, I believe that things are going to be interesting on election night. The media or polling firms haven't conducted a poll here in months and it's assumed that the stats from 6-8 months ago still hold true today.

I know a lot of GOP'ers that are voting Obama and that's exponentially more than I saw in 2000 or 2004.

Seems like the deep south is being written off by most. I'd love to see some southern states surprise the hell out of corporate media.

The repub office on Stone Drive only had two cars in front of it. I thought it odd since it normally has several.

I went in to have lunch at Amigos a week or two ago, and they were on the sidewalk telling people to come over and learn about Palin (not McCain - Palin). I politely told them that I knew all I needed to know about her and that I'm sure the owners of this restaurant really wouldn't like to hear that you guys are turning people away from their restaurant by associating themselves with it.

They beat a quick retreat to their doorway. I enjoyed my lunch. :)

I'd love to see it happen here.

Bake

Kerry got 14%, and it is hard to imagine that in a state that has had a dark racial past (and still has high amounts of racism today), Obama will get 3 white votes to every 2 that Kerry got. However, it will be closer than 04, since blacks will vote in large numbers for Obama.

He could probably get much closer if he had numerous visits but his time is more valuable elsewhere like Georgia.

I would still love to see a visit to MS by Obama if for no other reason than to force McCain/Palin to visit there too.

Or was it AL? I am quite sure he won just 14% of the white vote in one of those 2 states...

For example, CNN exit polls had the white vote at 65% and the non-white as ALL AA and 35%. It did not exit poll any of the other non-white vote besides AA. These are the proportions they modelled their exit polls on. It could very well be that the white vote exceeded it's demographic share of the population and the AA undervoted. For example whites may indeed average older than the AA population... thus a greater proportion of voting age. Plus there is still the issue of AA voter suppression in some areas.

Taken at face value... yes, Obama will have to improve his percentage of both the white and non-white vote. The non-white vote will have to show up at the polls as I said to make up at least 40% of the total vote. Obama has a organized presence in the state in both registration and GOTV and is advertising there.

Kerry made zero effort in MS in 2004 and Bush's popularity rating was about 50% nationally and quite a bit higher in the Deep South. Not so much now and McCain is not an incumbent favorite as Bush was then. The state government is controlled by the GOP and that damages our chances but the gambling, resort, and retirement industries have also changed the white demographics (ie, more newcomers) to a degree since 2004 as well.

Will all this add up to a toss up race? Hard to say. The last poll I saw (no reference...sorry) was from a couple of months ago and Obama was polling at about 18% among whites.
We shall see.

Donate to Ronnie Musgrove, Democrat for Senate

This seat is rated a toss-up. Musgrove is a former Governor of MS and he's got a good shot at capturing this seat for the Democrats. Rasmussen has Musgrove only 2 pts down. One more seat for us, one closer to a filibuster proof majority and a Senate that supports President Obama fully.

Any amount you can give will help, but NOW is the time to give it.