Waiting for "Good-Poll:" Dean Downs Dems Down. The Beat Goes On.

For almost a year, the Dean Campaign has engaged the most vicious attacks in NH and IOWA against the leading Democrats. Sadly, the Jan. 6th poll suggests, with significant effect.

In April, USA Today reported “his attacks on fellow Democrats have been so cutting that sometimes the Republican National Committee e-mails them to party members.” And “Dean has reserved his sharpest thrusts for Kerry, repeatedly accusing him of selling out Democratic principles” (April, 28). With his star rising with the Media, Dean cranked up his rhetoric on even futher, saying that if he won, members of Congress were ''going to be scurrying for shelter, just like a giant flashlight on a bunch of cockroaches” (NYT, Oct. 14).

It is simply fanciful to imagine that a year of onslaught on the “Washington Democrats” magnified as they have been by the Media, has not resulted in the denigration of Dean’s more progressive competitors in the arena of public opinion.

The Jan. 6th poll results from USAToday/CNN/Gallup suggest that Dr. Dean’s efforts may have brought up the unfavorability the numbers of other Democrats most notably of Kerry (13% to 32%) and Gephart (26% to 33%).

At the same time, the USAToday poll numbers show that despite enormous media exposure and nationwide advertising Howard Dean still trails George Bush 37% to 59%, that is, by 22 points. And attacks on Dean from all sides are just beginning.

USAToday/CNN/Gallup (Likely voters)
01/06/04
-----------------------------------Bush--59-----------Dean----37


It is most important to note that last September, both John Kerry and Wesley Clark were beating Bush in head-to-head matchups. Dean has effectively been co-opted by the Right Wing in the destruction of credible progressive leadership.


USAT/CNN/Gallup
9/21/03
-----------------------------------Bush--49-----------Dean----46
-----------------------------------Bush--46-----------Clark----49
-----------------------------------Bush--47-----------Kerry----48


History shows that at this point in the campaign process the Democratic front runner could be expected to be leading Bush by 10-20 point, much like Bush and McCain led Gore in Dec 1999 by 8-13 points.


USAT/CNN/Gallup
12/13/1999
-----------------------------------Gore--42-----------Bush-------55
-----------------------------------Gore--44-----------McCain-----52


The failure of Howard Dean, with the full war-chest of the progressive movement, to dominate even a disaster of a President such as George Bush is a bad omen for the Democrats.

I wish new poll data or voter study would appear to show a Democratic triumph on the horizon. However, no study or analysis shows how Dean is in a position to survive and triumph in the face of the withering Republican onslaught that can be expected ahead.

Still Waiting for "Good Poll."

if your favorite candidate is losing ground, then blame his or her own weak campaign, not Dean. the rest of the candidates have been attacking Dean, and it'd make just as much sense to interpret these polls as saying that their attacks have backfired.

remember, it's the other candidates who are trying to say that attacking Dean is the right thing to do because Bush/Rove will attack him even more strongly. well friend, the same argument applies to them.

Would have loved if the existing electoral dynamics were different.
Was great to see Dean being coached by Begala and Carville and doing well in the debates.

But the essentials of who Dean is and his campaign strategy over the last year and the results as they show in the polls and various
focus group studies are very worrisome for thoses of us whose business it is to spend time looking at these things.

Good luck in the GE if Dean is you favorite. I think we will all need it.

Many of us are with you on that!

the polls and the pundits wrong? Love to read your opinions though.

They're pretty much worthless at this stage of the game, and of questionable merit even when it's close to election time.

yada yada do... drums keep beating rhythm... oops sorry, off track there for a minute.
A question for you Wise Men, does your head ever hurt from beating it against the same wall, day after day after day? ...And the beat goes on yada yada do....

I feel your pain...and totally agree with you...it's too bad Dean and Trippi's dirty wedge politics somehow were able to outflank the true class of the field...Kerry...the most electable and experienced true liberal in the field

We'll see what happens in Iowa and NH...

I posted the following and it was pretty much buried by Barney threads and vanity posts...who cares...DU is just a mote in God's eye

esterday I saw this post by thebigthink and thought it very astute:


"I should point out that while national polls can be useful as a rough barometer of the national mood, they are worthless for predicting election results, since we don't have national elections in this country. Presidential elections are actually a series of 50 statewide elections that all happen on the same day (due to the electoral college).

If you want to get a feel for someone's "electability" in the general election, look at New Hampshire. New Hampshire is a Republican-leaning swing state the went for Reagan twice, Clinton twice, and for Bush I in 88 and Bush II in 2000. Right now the people of the Granite state are as familiar with the entire Democratic field as anyone in the country is likely to be with the eventual Democratic nominee by next November, so looking at how they stack up against Bush in NH could actually tell you something useful.

In the most recent NH poll (a real one, by American Research Group) that pitted Democrats versus Bush:

- Kerry and Lieberman both lose to Bush by 15%
- Clark and Gephardt lose by 19%
- Howard Dean loses by 25%.

Remember to double the margin of error when looking at margins in polls. The MoE for that poll was +/- 4% so it could be said that Bush has a solid lead over Kerry and Lieberman, a commanding lead over Clark and Gephardt, and gives Dean a painful spanking.

I don't know about you guys, but I'm tired of getting spanked by Republicans."

end of quote

I went to ARG's NH poll and found this data:

President Bush Dean Undecided
December 2003 57% 30% 13%
Republicans 94% 6%
Democrats 14% 67% 19%
Undeclared 63% 11% 26%

President Bush Democrat Undecided
December 2003 51% 34% 15%
Republicans 88% 6% 6%
Democrats 5% 76% 19%
Undeclared 47% 32% 21%

Notice the diferentials between dems and undeclareds...I couldn't find the data for Bush vs the other candidates..maybe thebigthink or someone else can post a link.

I also found similar thoughts at John Ellis blog

"Mr. Kaus asks the following question: Given all the good news at President Bush's back, why is he only leading former Governor Howard Dean by 51%-46% in the latest Time/CNN poll? The more relevant question is this: Given that President Bush now leads Gov. Dean (and all the other Democratic presidential candidates) by wide margins in New Hampshire (30 point lead), Texas (35 point lead), Florida (12 point lead), Ohio (double digit lead), Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, etcetera, etcetera, how is it possible that he only leads former Governor Dean by 5 percentage points nationally? Maybe one or two of these private polls in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Tennessee, Missouri et alia are wrong. But they can't all be wrong.

The political situation reminds me of Reagan-Carter 1980. The national polls said it would be close. The state-by-state polling pointed toward a 10 percentage point win and an electoral college landslide."

http://johnellis.blogspot.com/2004_01_01_johnellis_archive.html#107331076612267475

I'm thinking that the recent CNN poll showing Dean only 5 points behind Bush is bunk...

How long has Dean been campaigning in NH?

How much $$$ has he spent there?

Doesn't look like a name recognition problem to me.

and he was my original pick.

Dean made a calculated ploy to win the primary with a false anti IWR stance...if he had been in Kerry's position he would have voted yes too...I forgive Kerry...he recieved bad intel from a prez that had 80% approval...Dean is a poser...not a true liberal...

I'd rather support an honest man with true ideals than a faker seeking power.

Make your own judgement

Bush 52, Gore 39

…
ATTACKS BY FELLOW DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES ON GOVERNOR DEAN

STARTING SEPTEMBER 1

Democrat hopefuls rip chief rival Dean; Kerry, Lieberman turn up heat on front-runner - AP, 9/1

Kerry slams Dean - Boston Globe, 9/1

Democratic White House Hopefuls Focus Attacks On Dean - The Bulletin's Frontrunner, 9/2

Kerry launches campaign, takes aim at Bush, Dean - Seattle Times, 9/3

Kerry Changes Stance, Takes On Dean New Campaign Tactic Highlights Differences Between Candidates - Boston Globe, 9/4

Rivals rip surging Dean - on paper; Democrats blast him in debate handouts - Dallas Morning News, 9/5

Lieberman Leads Attacks On Dean In First Debate - WSJ, 9/5

Dean's Quick Rise Makes Him Target Of His Own Party - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, 9/7

Lieberman Criticizes Dean About His Remarks on Israel - NY Sun, 9/8

Taking a risk, Lieberman takes on front-running Dean - AP, 9/9

Edwards Critical of Dean Over Race Remark - AP, 9/10

Lieberman, Kerry rip Dean; Dems turn feisty in 2nd debate - Boston Globe, 9/10

Gephardt rips into Dean on health care - AP, 9/12

Presidential Candidate Congressman Gephardt Unleashed A Stinging Attack On Rival Howard Dean - FOX News, 9/12

Gephardt Attacks Dean on 2 Social Programs - NYT, 9/13

Gephardt accuses Dean of backing GOP policies - Baltimore Sun, 9/13

Gephardt criticizes Dean for past positions - Des Moines Register, 9/13

Gephardt plays hardball with front-runner Dean - Manchester Union Leader, 9/13

Gephardt Shifts Attacks to Dean - WP, 9/13

After Climbing To The Top, Dean Discovers He's A Target Rivals Set Sights On Front-Runner - Boston Globe, 9/14

In A Shift Of Strategy, Kerry Takes On Dean - Boston Globe, 9/14

Gephardt is latest to attack Dean - Chicago Tribune, 9/14

Gephardt Aims At Dean, Linking Him To Gingrich - St. Louis Post-Dispatch, 9/14

Kerry rips Bush but adds Dean hit - AP, 9/15

Gephardt Steps Up Criticism Of Dean, Says He Agreed With 'Gingrich Republicans' - Frontrunner, 9/15

Gephardt: An Attack A Day Keeps The Doctor At Bay? - Hotline, 9/15

Dean becomes a target - Newsday, 9/15

Gephardt Uses Web Site to Criticize Dean - AP, 9/16

Gephardt: Moredeanbashing.com - Hotline, 9/16

Kerry Openly Criticizes Dean's Stance On Tax Cuts For Middle Class Families - Frontrunner, 9/16

Still under attack, Dean goes easy on his rivals - AP, 9/17

Kerry Steps Up Attacks On Dean Over Trade - Frontrunner, 9/23

Kerry Attacks Rival Dean Over Protectionism - NYT, 9/23

Despite interest in Clark, Dean is still top target of other candidates - Philadelphia Inquirer, 9/25

Among the 10, Two Are Tested the Most; Newcomer Clark Avoids Serious Gaffes; Dean Withstands Sharper Challenges - WP, 9/26

10 Democratic rivals debate national woes, attack well-financed Dean and ignore newcomer Clark - Knight-Ridder, 9/26

Democrats spare Clark in his first debate and go after Dean - AP, 9/26

Democratic Candidates Focus Attacks On Dean In Primary Debate - Frontrunner, 9/26

Clark survives debate, as hopefuls target Dean; Candidates' attacks include a comparison to Gingrich - Dallas Morning News, 9/26

Debate Rivals Target Dean - Hartford Courant, 9/26

Debate: All Eyes On The General, All Attacks Aimed At Dean - Hotline, 9/26

Gephardt, Kerry attack Dean over prior views - Washington Times, 9/26

Dean Is Targeted by Rivals - LA Times, 9/26

Bush, Dean under attack in 10-way Democratic debate - Myrtle Beach Sun-News, 9/26

Fellow Dems Diss Dean As Sparks Fly In Debate - NY Post, 9/26

Attacking the Leader; Debate barbs aimed at front-runner Dean - NY Newsday, 9/26

Party unity? The candidates were united, in going after Howard Dean - Phila. Inquirer, 9/26

Dean Takes The Heat From Rivals - Baltimore Sun, 9/26

Clark Debut Doesn't Change Democrats' Focus on Dean - NY Times, 9/27

Democratic rivals target Bush -- and Dean - Salon.com, 9/27

Gephardt attacks Dean Medicare record - AP, 9/29

Democrats: Candidates Criticize Dean's Record On Medicare - American HealthLine, 9/29

Gephardt Compares Dean's Record On Medicare To Gingrich's - Frontrunner, 9/29

Gephardt: Takes His Sparring With Dean To The Sunday Shows - Hotline, 9/29

Attacks on Dean may leave voters dizzy - St. Petersburg Times, 9/29

Dean Rivals Try To Turn His Comments On Key Issues Against Him - Frontrunner, 10/2

Kerry Attacks Dean For Bush Pact - NYT, 10/2

Rivals Target Dean's Blunt Comments - WP, 10/2

Kerry Attacks Dean Over '93 Nuclear Waste Accord - Frontrunner, 10/6

Kerry maintains attacks on Dean over Medicare - DMR, 10/7

Kerry: Still Hammering Away At Dean On Medicare - Hotline, 10/7

Clark, Dean Are Targeted in Debate - LA Times, 10/10

Gephardt roasts Dean on past political moves - Myrtle Beach Sun-News, 10/12

Mutual Threat Unites 2 Rivals Opposing Dean - NYT, 10/12

Gephardt and Kerry unite against Dean - IHT, 10/13

Dean Continues To Draw Fire From Rivals At Des Moines AARP Forum - Frontrunner, 10/16

Other Candidates Again Target Dean; At Iowa Seniors Forum, He Is Chided for Views on Medicare, Bush Tax Cuts - WP, 10/16

'Divers' Dedicated to Dig Dirt on Dean - AP, 10/21

Edwards raps Dean on health plan - Manchester Union Leader, 10/21

Kerry Criticizes Dean Oversight of Vermont Egg Farm - AP, 10/22

Posted by Joe Rospars at 03:45 PM
http://blog.deanforamerica.com/archives/001964.html#more

He's been very effective in creating the impression that he's the Democratic frontrunner, to the detriment of the other Democrats and the party as a whole. In the process, he sidelined those who made a real difference in public opinion against Bush. But as he's risen in the polls, it's clear his opinions of Bush do nothing to hurt Bush. He has just been a disaster all the way around.

It's not too late though. I expect when Clark or Kerry win the nomination, all these numbers will quickly turn around and Bush will start falling again and then we'll clean his clock in November.