There's one result in the NYT/CBS poll that's disappointing: only 81% of Obama supporters

say that their mind is made up. 85% of McCain voters say their mind is made up.

Of the 53% who said they would vote for Obama if the election were today, 81% say their mind is made up and 19% say it's too early to say for sure. That means only 42.9% of respondents say they support Obama and won't change their mind. This number is about what Obama's floor has always been when his polling is at his lowest, no matter who the pollster and when it was taken.

As a comparison, last week the same poll showed Obama at 48% x 82% certain = 39.4% . Two weeks ago it showed Obama at 49% x 86% certain = 42.1%.

What this all means is that the electorate is still more fluid than it has appeared to be. While most of the poll is obviously very good news, the election is not a foregone conclusion. I would have hoped that after two debates and the events of the last couple of weeks that Obama's support would solidify behind him. The repugs will see this hesitancy on the part of Obama's voters and try to peel off this support with a steady stream of smears and negative ads.

btw, this doesn't mean that I'm fretting that Obama will lose. Even when he was behind in early September, I thought he would win by at least 100 electoral votes, and now I think he'll win by at least 200.

Here's the link to the full 34-page pdf of the poll. I've been discussing Question 7 on page 6:

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/politics/20081015_POLL.pdf

:eyes:

:shrug: and he has no money,

Can we have a new smilie for the ConcernFaction????? :slapshead:

Just kidding. Just get out and vote and make sure those Obama supporters around you do the same.

I agree with you.

People feel the need to hedge their bets. Personally, I've already voted, so this doesn't reflect my position, but some people want to always have an out, just in case, something crazy and unexpected happens.

Same point we already know we're at. Unless Obama makes some massive misstep, at this point, all is as good as it could be.

Biggest point:
Get out, vote, and Get out the vote!

=)

:eyes: :think: :crazy: :silly: :boring: :wow: :nuke: :scared: :shrug: :cry: :bluebox: :redbox: :daily: :weekly: :tv: :radio: :web: :*

That 19% will solidify for Obama just because they now know they are in the majority. It's like when people are in a room participating in a show-of-hands poll. Some people sit around and wait to see how many others put their hands up and if it is a good amount, they will too.

There are 2 things to think about. 1) If you are insecure about your opinion, when you discover that most other people have that same opinion it validates it's okay. 2) People want to go with the winner. Historians claim that undecided voters tend to move to the person who is ahead in the last couple weeks of a campaign.

I think Republicans tend to solidify faster because someone has already told them what to think. They tend to look to authority figures to tell them how to think because it eliminates their responsibility for the decision they make.

McCain supporters were skewed toward people who had no mind. Hence, the ones with their "mind made up" did not reflect the entire McCain demographic.

..... that prob. explains it.

for Obama.

if McCain only had his base and was at 30 percent in the polls the numbers for those supporting him that made up their mind would be 100 percent.

this is the same polling organization that show the race at just 3pts one week ago, if I recall. So the OP is right that the number of people who have not definitely made up their minds is a measure of potential fluidity.
That's a perfectly valid point and the fact that we've had such "movement" in a single week is further evidence of the same point.

There's nothing wrong with a little objective and dispassionate analysis. Actually, I think DU could use a LOT more of that.

Obama has a 10 point margin among those who won't change their mind.

Of all my worries, this is 23rd on my list. :eyes: