The Daily Widget, Wed 10/15 – O-386, M-152 – Wisconsin Strong; SUSA’s Ethnic Crosstabs

1. ANALYSIS

It was a nice, slow day for state polls yesterday as only twelve state polls were released. Barack Obama is leading in eleven of them. The one exception is Survey USA’s South Carolina poll, but there’s something very interesting about that poll’s crosstabs and a slow day gave me the time to dig down and notice it.

The topline for Survey USA’s South Carolina poll shows John McCain with a 14 point lead there. Looking at the crosstabs, though, McCain’s lead drops to +13.06 points when gender is considered, and it drops to +12.33 points when age is considered. These differences could simply be due to poll noise and rounding.

But when ethnicity crosstabs are considered, McCain’s lead drops to only +6.09 points in South Carolina. I’ve noticed this discrepancy in most of Survey USA’s polls for a few months now: Their crosstabs for ethnicity seem to throw their polls out of whack. Do they know something that other pollsters are unaware of? Or are they terribly off-the-mark with ethnic weighting this year? Most, if not all, of their state polls show more than 10% support for McCain among African American voters, well above the national average of around 5%.

Below are a few more states where Survey USA seems to show major discrepancies with ethnic weighting. The topline result in each poll was closest to the gender crosstab:

Alabama – Gender McCain +27.26, Age McCain +27.28, Ethnicity McCain +20.84
Georgia – Gender McCain +7.22, Age McCain +6.83, Ethnicity McCain +1.66
Illinois – Gender Obama +14.28, Age Obama +14.30, Ethnicity Obama +19.42
Maryland – Gender Obama +10.17, Age Obama +11.00, Ethnicity Obama +18.22

Don’t get me wrong, I believe Survey USA’s polls to be more accurate than most. But based on the information above, I firmly believe Survey USA has a serious weighting problem with their state polls this year in regards to ethnicity.

Meanwhile, two states change columns today. Quinnipiac University is showing Obama leading by 17 points in Wisconsin, moving that state on average into the Strong Obama column today. Quinnipiac is also showing an 11 point lead for Obama in Minnesota, but Minnesota moves one column to the right today due to older polls falling off and the ARG poll from last week with Obama leading by only one point in Minnesota staying in the mix.

The national polls continue to soar for Obama (see Figure 4c below), and it is becoming almost commonplace to see a double-digit lead for Obama in these polls. Also, Obama’s national popular vote lead is closing in fast on the 7 million mark (+6.8 million).


Note: Trend lines in graphs are only accurate up to five days in the future, so we need to view the trend lines with that in mind.



2. NEW STATE POLLS


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


Colorado Obama 52, McCain 43 (Quinnipiac, 10/12 +/- 3.0, 1088 LV)
Colorado Obama 47, McCain 43 (Suffolk University, 10/11 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Delaware Obama 56, McCain 41 (Rasmussen, 10/10 +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Michigan Obama 54, McCain 38 (Quinnipiac, 10/12 +/- 3.0, 1043 LV)
Minnesota Obama 51, McCain 40 (Quinnipiac, 10/12 +/- 3.1, 1019 LV)
Missouri Obama 48, McCain 46 (Public Policy Polling, 10/12 +/- 3.1, 1009 LV)
North Carolina Obama 49, McCain 46 (Public Policy Polling, 10/12 +/- 2.8, 1196 LV)
Ohio Obama 50, McCain 45 (Survey USA, 10/13 +/- 4.2, 575 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 55, McCain 40 (Survey USA, 10/13 +/- 4.4, 516 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 51, McCain 38 (Muhlenberg College, 10/13 +/- 4.0, 602 LV)
South Carolina Obama 41, McCain 55 (Survey USA, 10/13 +/- 4.2, 561 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 54, McCain 37 (Quinnipiac, 10/12 +/- 2.8, 1201 LV)



3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)



^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.






4. POPULAR VOTE AND NATIONAL POLL SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 136 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth and new voter registration totals for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 4b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.



^ FIGURE 4c. This chart compares each polling agency’s latest polls with their averages for each candidate this year. The top section of the chart compares the Daily Tracking polls and my own projected popular vote for each candidate. The bottom section of the chart compares the National Tracking polls (usually released monthly). Each section is totaled and averaged, and an overall average is shown at the very bottom of the chart. The latest polls released for each polling agency are displayed in the center columns for each candidate, as well as Obama’s current lead in those polls (a negative number denotes Obama trailing McCain in that poll). The columns on the right show each polling agency’s averaged results since May 1.



5. OBAMA’S SEVENTEEN



^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.



^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.



^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.



6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.






7. LINKS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Saturday Data Dump
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes


.

I don't think that Obama will win ohio any way

And make it an unmistakable mandate ...

:donut: Good morning, oviedodem! :hi:

I think on November 5th, people will be talking about the "Obama Effect". About how the polls undervalued him.

NC needs to get it in gear and make some movement! We are just hovering within the MOE. Early voting starts here, tomorrow, and we will put some votes in the bank for Obama, I still think NC will go Blue.:hi:

Polls showed NC a tighter race than the outcome. I don't think the pollsters have learned from that yet :D

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

Interesting ruminations on cross tabs there. I'm learning more than I ever wanted to know about polling by your instruction....

No matter what, this will be an election for the history books and many a doctoral thesis will result analyzing all aspects. I wouldn't be surprised if polling advanced into new regions of accuracy---first from eliminating the frauds and slanted pollsters, second by expanding the knowledge base and tools of the conscientious ones.

And of course, the public benefits in the real world trickle down of information, the only trickle down that actually works as advertised!

And your ability to express them.

We really need to separate the wheat from the chaff in the polling field, and laughing away the jokers in the mix would definitely increase accuracy ... if the MSM has the balls to do it. The "good" pollsters need to be more transparent with their methodologies to help that along.

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

You're my inspiration, P-Man! You make us all look good!

Thank you for all you do.

:donut: Good morning to you, gademocrat7! :hi:

thanks

:7

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

LMD says your off to the greatest! :D

Nice digging on the crosstabs!

:hi: :bounce:

Or is he still busy canvassing? Say hello to him for me! :bounce:

And Good Morning to you! :donut: :hi: :hi:

It was quite traumatic. There was a substitute bus driver. I had to cheer him up by letting him "talk" to you before getting on the bus this morning. :)

Hope the trauma doesn't last long ... :(

Your last sentence made my day, though :)

:donut: Good morning to you! :hi:

Thank you and love the deep dark blue of Wisconsin :thumbsup: :hug: and always GPG.

:hi:

Great job as always Phrig!

I sure do like starting my day by looking at the Widget. Thank you for posting!

Seriously, every time some concern troll posts something about "OH NO, X POLL SAYS OBAMA IS DOWN IN X!" I just go to the daily widget to calm my nerves. :hug:

What a dumbass this guy is:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7445257

btw, what a nice thing to say! :blush: :hi: :hug:

LOL on the dumbass concern troll. :)

This is looking better almost every day.

Can you explain what you mean by Survey USA's ethnic weighting problem? Do you mean that they are undersampling for black voters, or does it have something to do with under-estimating their likelihood of voting?

It could be one or the other, or both. I would guess both, given that new voter registrations among African American and Latino voters are much higher this year, and the turnout should also be at an equal or higher rate than what has historically been shown.

:hi:

expertise and insight, is the back and forth you have with other DU members. It's like being in a warm and friendly conversation. I remember a few weeks ago, being frantic that Missouri was polling poorly, and you went an extra step to soothe my fears. It was greatly appreciated.

Many, many thanks.

:yourock:

Wow, what a nice thing to say :blush:

We're like family here, it seems ... even though a few arguments break out here and there, we all want similar things! I wouldn't dream of posting the widget anywhere else :D

And I'm happy it has been good news for us this year! Imagine the tomatoes being thrown if I brought bad news every day, lol

:hug: :hi:

It's more like shooting the horse from a helicopter this year ...

Always appreciated :patriot:

I would never have thought that states like CO NV IA NH would be so high.

And Indiana has been playing jump rope with it. :7

Colorado 762 LV, 3.5%
Obama 51, McCain 47

Florida 765 LV, 3.5%
Obama 51, McCain 46

Georgia 718 LV, 3.5%
McCain 53, Obama 45

Missouri 763 LV, 3.5%
McCain 49, Obama 48

Virginia 698 LV, 3.5%
Obama 53, McCain 43

Insider Advantage. It'll be blue on the map tomorrow unless another poll comes out today with differing numbers ...

The entire east coast north of South Carolina is blue now.