JAW DROPPER: Obama Crushing Battleground States With Early Voting

From fivethirtyeight.com http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/obama-dominating-among-early-voters-in.html :



More at the link.

:wow:

:wow:

the results tell more about those voting than it does about where the results will end up.

Of course it's great to see numbers like that, but they are unlikely to hold-up.

The numbers won't directly track into the general election, but they really are little canary warnings to the Republicans that there's a groundswell coming right at them.

people will vote for a winner. If Obama is clearly going to win, it will attract more votes because people like to be on the winning side. This all depends on the polls being reported accurately (and the vote not being stolen).

Why vote for a winner? What an idiotic waste of the franchise.

In general I would prefer that those so easily swayed stay home. If you don't have a strong opinion after the last 8 years, you aren't capable of making a responsible choice and you should let those who are better informed determine the outcome.

That said, in this election I'll be happy to have them vote for Obama because there is another effect (coat-tails) that people tend to vote for the same party at the top of the ticket all the way through the other federal, state and local races on the ballot. I'd like to see a huge mandate for progressive politics so we can set about undoing all the damage AND I'd like to see the GOP so thoroughly crushed at all levels in this election that they can't ever come back. It's the least they deserve.

that Hillary banked it is possible that she would have lost CA and TX. Both were strongly trending towards Obama towards the end (closed a huge gap) but it was not enough to overcome the early votes she banked.

If he still loses, we know that the election was stolen. With up to 30% of all votes expected to be cast in early voting, Obama should a sizeable lead before election day in those states.

I get to vote next week!

This survey must be absentee ballot numbers.

"Early voting is simple, safe, and convenient. It's also a vital part of our strategy.

The more supporters who make their voices heard now, the more energy and resources we can devote to our Get Out The Vote efforts closer to Election Day.

Vote early today and see if you can get five or more friends to vote early with you."

:wow: :toast:

be about absentee ballots in my state.

Now that is a jaw dropper!

I signed my grandparents absentee ballots about 3 weeks ago. All 4 voted for Obama! I expect his domination of the early vote to grow even further over the next week.

An Oregon voter here- where everyone votes by mail, is it basically the same deal? or are there actual polling places?

around each county for Early Vote, all courthouses and sub courthouses, plus other locations as needed. You can vote at any of these locations, regardless of the precinct you are in, so I could vote in Arlington if it were more convenient even though I live in Fort Worth since it is the same county.

We start the 20th and run through Oct 31st, including weekends. The last full week and the last weekend the polls are open 12 hours each day.

In addition, one can obtain absentee ballot if elderly, homebound, out of town during voting period etc.

I do not early vote if I know I will be able to vote on Election Day because it is electronic and Election Day is paper ballot. Also I LOVE marking in those Democratic names, one by one.

My husband will early vote this year because he will be coming in for his home cycle from the field this weekend and we don't know if he will still be here on Nov 4. I will probably vote election day.

I've printed out my list of early voting places and you betcha I'll be there on the 20th!

Having just moved to Waco, I was surprised to see that the local shopping mall is not one of the early voting places. I am used to Austin's early voting at the malls and grocery stores.

I haven't, unless my husband brought in the mail and stuck them somewhere I haven't seen yet.

Per the SOS' Election Division, he're the schedule:

October 15-17 voters' pamphlet delivery of volume 2 (candidates)

October 17-21 ballots mailed to voters other than long-term and out-of-state voters

http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/nov42008/

:hi:

I thought that they arrived earlier some years, but I could be wrong.

is in the letters to the editor. Not one letter backing McCain has been positive. Not one letter has said what a great person McCain is or what a great platform he has.

Every single anti-Obama letter is a smear -- regurgitated talking points from Faux Noise. Even when Poppy Bush was pushing Willie Horton he had platform that his followers could resonate with. McCain has nothing bu smear and threats of violence.

I voted for Obama and Biden yesterday. This was my 12th presidential election and I have never voted with such enthusiasm as I did this week.

I really think that the GOTV effort with this long period early voting is going well. The lines are on the local news almost every night and I've heard people interviewed talking about getting registered at church and then gotv in groups making sure people are transported to the polls early.

WOOHOO!

They say "no, I want to march proudly into the voting booth on ELECTION DAY and cast my vote for Obama"

They also express concerns about early votes being like absentee vote and not really being counted. I say an early vote is probably safer, but what do I really know.

I have worked on election day and I think early voting is better. There are many people who come in who have moved within the county and not updated their registration. This necessitates a call to the election center to verify if the person can indeed vote at that precinct (some precincts have different things on the ballot) or if they have to go to their new precinct. The phone lines are incredibly busy and you may have to wait for quite a while. If you go to early voting, you can clear up any problems, or come back if you need to bring your ID or voter's registration card.

state has a lengthy early voting period, is that if you go one day and the lines are hideously long, you might be able to try again on a different day. If you wait until the 4th, your choices are reduced to waiting 'til Hell freezes over or not voting at all. Also, if you vote early, you can possibly go on a day when the weather's nice, instead of a day when it's cold/icy/raining like hell or you or a family member is ill. Shit happens, so vote early.

So maybe those being polled lied? Or did they submit absentee ballots?

Years ago we were told to avoid voting absentee, because they generally did not bother counting them unless the vote is really close. So if all of Obama's supporters vote early leaving the polls full of nothing but McCain supporters on election day, the election day votes will show McCain so far ahead that election officials will see no need to dig out the absentee/early votes.

I am waiting for Nov 4 because I thought early votes don't get counted until after FoxNews announces the election results.

and when i was there, just about EVERYONE voting had the Dem sample ballot! :bounce: