National Pew Poll Registered Voters: O 50 M 40. Likely Voters: O 49 M 42.

DemsUnited

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Wed Oct-15-08 10:07 AM
Original message

National Pew Poll Registered Voters: O 50 M 40. Likely Voters: O 49 M 42.

Either way, trend for Obama is up since Pew Poll last reported.

http://people-press.org/report/458/economic-crisis

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HughMoran

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Wed Oct-15-08 10:11 AM
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1. Looks like the Dems really need to get people to the polls

I don't like how McCain voters are more likely to turn out.

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TheDonkey

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Wed Oct-15-08 10:13 AM
Response to Reply #1

3. Yes, I think age is a factor

that is showing up in RV versus LV. Hopefully McTroll voters are discouraged and stay home.

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HughMoran

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Wed Oct-15-08 10:23 AM
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5. Well, I was 18 when I first voted and I was extra motivated due to the bad economy.

I was concerned that I wouldn't be able to get a job after college, so I voted for Reagan. Don't hurt me, that's the last Republican vote I ever cast :D Just shows how economic concerns can motivate the younger voters though.

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berni_mccoy

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Wed Oct-15-08 10:13 AM
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2. Wow, those numbers look backwards! More Likely McCain Voters and Fewer Likely Obama Voters? WTF!

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AllentownJake

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Wed Oct-15-08 10:15 AM
Response to Reply #2

4. Makes sense

Likely Voters use turn out in the last Presidential Election as one metric. Since Obama's voters include lots of new registrants it is understandable that people who just became elligible to vote and people who are voting for the first time would be deemed less likely to vote.

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alcibiades_mystery

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Wed Oct-15-08 10:26 AM
Response to Reply #2

6. No, that's exactly what is to be expected in the face of massive registration disparities

The likely voter numbers cancel new registrations to some extent, since it is always assumed to be much easier to register than it is to vote. So, while Dems have tended to hold leads in registrations, GOPers have tended to be better at GOTV, as they were in 2004. The X-Factor is Obama's organizational innovations, which are to some extent untested. Can Obama's neighborhood organizational strategy, which is largely an extension of former GOP strategies, actually get these people out on November 4. I suspect that they can, but it is not worked into the likely voter calculations.

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