From Newsweek Poll--interesting stats for end of both conventions

Bush/Cheney Kerry/Edwards Undecided
9/2-3/04 54 43 3
7/29-30/04 44 52 4


http://pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

Pardon the expression, but it flip-flopped from the DNC convention to the RNC convention. I don't know what that means, but I do remember that one of the polls taken for Kerry on the last night of the convention showed a huge lead--as does the one for Bush--54 to 38 on Sept 3 compared to 49 to 43 on Sept 2 (Newsweek also pushed leaners--like Time--so I don't know if this is again comparing apples and oranges).

And, as you'll recall, any momentum Kerry had after the convention was squelched by the conveniently-timed terror alert that weekend. I don't know if the news this week will do the same for Bush--it's not really the same thing because the alert played on people's fears and what the Bush people perceive to be his strengths.

Another thing I was wondering about is the convention scheduling. I know that they wanted it close to Sept. 11, but I also wonder if they wanted it close to Labor Day to take advantage of all the conventional wisdom that says a candidate leading by Labor Day generally goes on to win the election.

Like I said, I know nothing about polling and statistics or what any of this means. But I do think polls taken in the heat of the convention -- when your candidate is presented in the best possible light and given national exposure-- can't possibly be the best gauge for judging solid support. It all goes back to what Zogby said--Bush has had a few bounces in the past year, based on outside events, and has always come back to the same level--or lower.

It would be interesting to see if there have been other elections in previous years where pollsters have actually polled on the final two nights of the conventions--and what those results were.

at Labor Day. I think that shows these holiday polls are not reliable.

Or at least that maddening 'middle' which needs more wake-up calls from Kerry and Edwards.

I am in the camp not worried about the polls. Lots of wasted energy, and I say that even when Kerry is leading in them.

I have observed too many elections to be worried with TWO MONTHS to go. :-)