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WeDidIt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 02:33 PM
Original message
My HUGE MAJOR Surprise State For Obama Prediction...
South Carolina.

Yeah, call me crazy, but as far as early shockers in teh evening go, when they call South Carolina "Too Close To Call" after the polls close, you're going to remember this post.

Carry on...
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droidamus2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 02:36 PM
Response to Original message
1. How about?
I would love to see Obama take both South Carolina and Georgia for no other reason than we could say he took both coasts. Of course also because with these two early on election day we would pretty much know that there was no way McCain could win.
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WeDidIt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 02:39 PM
Response to Reply #1
8. I want a total and complete shocker where Obama runs the gamet on the South
:evilgrin:

From the Norternmost tip of Maine to teh Southernmost tip of Florida.

Let's make BOTH COAST TRUE BLUE!
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Brotherjohn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 02:36 PM
Response to Original message
2. I won't call you crazy. The turnout for Obama in SC for the primaries was huge.
If he takes NC, and then SC, the election is over!
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KingFlorez Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 02:37 PM
Response to Original message
3. Not really crazy
South Carolina is a Republican state, but it's completely conceivable that it could flip and I don't think it is completely outside the realm of possibility.
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TornadoTN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 02:39 PM
Response to Original message
4. I keep saying Tennessee and people just poo-poo it
Edited on Wed Oct-15-08 02:45 PM by TornadoTN
I think it will be closer than most expect at any rate.
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asjr Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 02:42 PM
Response to Reply #4
14. Well, I keep hoping TN joins
the human race again.
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TornadoTN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 02:45 PM
Response to Reply #14
15. We're trying really hard
Well, at least some of us are.
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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 04:06 PM
Response to Reply #15
25. Thank you down in that really
pretty state, Tornado!
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msallied Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 04:08 PM
Response to Reply #15
28. Well I have to say, TN is one of the most beautiful states in the country.
I'd sure love to see it turn blue. :)
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TornadoTN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 05:56 PM
Response to Reply #28
31. It wasn't that long ago when Tennessee was blue - solid blue!
We had a Democratic governor, Democratic house and state senate, and two great American's serving in the United States Senate. This was just in 1992, but it somehow seems like a lifetime away given the events of 2000.

I think it will happen, sooner rather than later. Look at our state now and the demographics. It's just around the corner!
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a la izquierda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 06:27 PM
Response to Reply #31
38. Good luck! Oklahoma's not blue yet...
TN is very pretty, but really, what's the deal with Hungry Mother State Park? And don't you have a Frozen Head State Park too?
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TornadoTN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 06:35 PM
Response to Reply #38
40. Hungry Mother is just over the border in Virginia, we can't take credit for that one!
I haven't heard of Frozen Head State Park, sadly to say. Sounds like a charming place, really! :)
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a la izquierda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 06:48 PM
Response to Reply #38
41. here you go...
i know tn is a big place...
http://www.state.tn.us/environment/parks/FrozenHead/
the park looks nice actually, which makes sense because the area where i saw the sign was pretty.
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occe Donating Member (558 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 04:09 PM
Response to Reply #4
29. I agree about Tennessee
And I've been slammed for saying it, but why not?
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Kdillard Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 07:40 PM
Response to Reply #4
43. I don't think you are wrong about tn at least if an informal carwash poll
is to be believed. Obama and McCain were surprisingly close in a red state.
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Bicoastal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 02:39 PM
Response to Original message
5. I have a prediction too!
Well, this is what it is - my prediction that I have, that is to say, which is mine, is mine.

This is it. My prediction that belongs to me is as follows. AHEM!

This is how it goes. The next thing I'm going to say is my prediction. Ready?

My prediction by Bicoastal--Mr. Bicoastal. This prediction goes as follows and begins now.

On election, all states which are not blue will be red, and vice versa. That is my prediction, it is mine, and belongs to me and I own it, and what it is too.
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MamaDem Donating Member (222 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 02:39 PM
Response to Original message
6. My husband thinks I'm crazy because I'm saying GA, SC, WV, and IN...
but we still have a few weeks so putting the chickens back in the pens so as not to count any unhatched eggs!!!
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blue_onyx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 06:08 PM
Response to Reply #6
35. I agree about IN and WV
I'm more unsure of GA and SC....I think those 2 are unlikely to go for Obama. I would love for Obama to win both of those so I hope I'm wrong :)
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morillon Donating Member (809 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 06:18 PM
Response to Reply #6
36. I'm virtually certain about Georgia.
I know several 30-somethings who've never voted in their lives but who registered this year AND voted, just so they could cast a ballot for Barack Obama. My friends know others with the same story. My mom and my sister are out putting up signs in their very rural, very Republican county, and Mom is also phone-banking. My husband and I have contributed more money this year than any other year, and we're volunteering in our Republican county this next two weeks. One of my closest friends has never contributed to a political campaign or volunteered, but she has been signing up dozens of new Obama voters every week for the last two months -- in a Republican stronghold, too.

And the Republicans I know who live here are sitting this one out. They hate McCain and Barbie. These are people who donated quite heavily to W. in 2000 and 2004, and this year, they're letting McCain twist in the wind.



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musicblind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 02:39 PM
Response to Original message
7. It is not impossible. BUT SC and GA are totally different places than NC
It isn't impossible given the crazy early voting numbers we are seeing... but it isn't likely :(

STILL! I'd be thrilled if it happened!
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WeDidIt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 02:40 PM
Response to Reply #7
10. The other thing is, they ahven't done a poll in SC ina long time.
Ya never know...
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musicblind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 02:49 PM
Response to Reply #10
19. You are right. You never know. Maybe we should start pushing for some polls from SC?
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Hamlette Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 02:52 PM
Response to Reply #10
22. there is a 10/13 poll in SC showing McCain ahead by 14% n/t
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WeDidIt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 02:57 PM
Response to Reply #22
23. Yup, just saw that on EV.COM
I spoke too soon.

But still, I think it'll be a shocker.
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CatBO Donating Member (713 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 02:40 PM
Response to Reply #7
11. Sadly SC does not allow early voting...
If SC allowed early voting, I'd say yes, it's possible. But we are a state run by and highly populated by inbred morons so no early voting allowed. :(
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musicblind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 02:50 PM
Response to Reply #11
20. What I meant by that was that early voting is showing higher motivation and turn out trends than
expected or indicated in any of the polls. If that is the case it could mean that a LOT of states we don't think are close will be closer than they appear.
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HPULiberal Donating Member (13 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 08:12 PM
Response to Reply #11
46. We sort of do allow early voting in SC
We call it "absentee in-person", which can be done at various local election offices. Still, I have lived in both NC and SC, and NC is in a way better situation than we are in SC. NC has three major metro areas with influence from a growing populations of outsiders. SC only has three small metro areas with most of the state under the control of fundies. This is why within the next year I plan on attending graduate school in NC which could easily become blue soon (hopefully in 20 days!) to get out of this very red state.
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LSK Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 02:40 PM
Response to Original message
9. Montana, North Dakota, Georgia
I can dream.

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codjh9 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 02:41 PM
Response to Original message
12. I want him to win here (TX) ... but I really doubt it'll happen - but it COULD! :^)
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bunnies Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 02:42 PM
Response to Original message
13. I'm sticking with Mississippi.
Love to see that happen. :)
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featherman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 02:46 PM
Response to Reply #13
16. I'm with you, Bunnies, as far as election night shocker
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bunnies Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 02:48 PM
Response to Reply #16
18. We'll gloat together after it happens! :)
:toast: :hi:
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 02:47 PM
Response to Original message
17. SUSA has Obama down 14 as of yesterday
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ronnykmarshall Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 02:51 PM
Response to Original message
21. Arizona!
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Robbins Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 04:04 PM
Response to Original message
24. My Upset Prediction
Obama will pull an upset In West Virginia.The economy will help Obama pull a narrow victory as
part of his electoral Landslide.

If things keep going the way they are there could be a upset In Georgia.Obama Is doing well In
early voting,and It Is tighting there.Even If he doesn't capture It don't be surprised If
Mccain just barely wins Georgia.
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msallied Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 04:07 PM
Response to Original message
26. I think South Carolina and Arkansas could both possibly turn.
Edited on Wed Oct-15-08 04:11 PM by msallied
Edit: Noticed the S.C. polling data from Monday doesn't look great, but there is potential for spillover from the blue states bordering it, which is why I think Indiana is turning purple.

I should also add that there are so many racists down there. At least where my family lives. That and a state that was still flying a confederate flag on its capitol building in the 21st century still has its work cut out for it, but they have a pretty big AA population that could help turn the tide.

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occe Donating Member (558 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 04:07 PM
Response to Original message
27. I've never thought of SC
As a state Obama could snag, but hey, why not?

I *really* think Obama will win WV and Tennessee as upsets. Possibly Georgia as well.
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alcibiades_mystery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 06:29 PM
Response to Reply #27
39. You forgot about Utah and Idaho
...

Transparent.
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CitizenPatriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 04:13 PM
Response to Original message
30. he is winning so far in early voting here in GA
and what is really interesting is the early voting demographics -- most votes: white women, white men, then african american women and men.
he's winning among those early voters by 6 (damn, I don't have the link -- is it 6 points or 6 percent? anyone?)

I don't expect that to hold - but MAN. What a cool thing to see.
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terrya Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 05:58 PM
Response to Original message
32. Indiana and Missouri.
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anneboleyn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 06:04 PM
Response to Reply #32
34. I agree with you -- I think Indiana will be the first be shocker of the night.
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Blarch Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 06:00 PM
Response to Original message
33. Looks like McCain is up ...
by at least 10. Thats a pretty bold prediction.

SurveyUSA 10/12 - 10/13 561 LV 55 41 McCain +14
Rasmussen 09/18 - 09/18 500 LV 51 45 McCain +6
Research 2000 07/22 - 07/23 500 LV 53 40 McCain +13
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/sc/south_carolina_mccain_vs_obama-624.html
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RagAss Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 06:19 PM
Response to Original message
37. Nebraska !!!
HAHAHAHAHAHAA

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
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iceman66 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 07:44 PM
Response to Reply #37
45. Maybe the one EV from Omaha
but Western Nebraska is redder than Utah!
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apocalypsehow Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 07:38 PM
Response to Original message
42. I think it will be a lot closer there AND in Mississippi than people think.
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iceman66 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 07:43 PM
Response to Original message
44. Hope you're right!
SC is possible, given the primary turnout numbers.
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