Political scientists give Obama 80% chance of victory

Political scientists give Obama 80% chance of victory
Nick Juliano and Muriel Kane
Published: Thursday October 16, 2008

Models predicted Bush win in '04

Even before the current economic turmoil steered more voters towards Barack Obama, political scientists were predicting the Democratic candidate would win the presidency.

Election forecasts completed this year give Obama an 80 percent chance of victory. Just one of nine forecast models being published this month predicts John McCain will win, and that model relies heavily on poll results inflated by the substantial bounce that running mate Sarah Palin briefly provided the Republican ticket.

Between January and September, political scientists began comparing statistics including economic data, the candidate's poll numbers, President Bush's approval ratings and other figures to create statistical models aimed at forecasting the 2008 election results. Nine models are being published this month in the journal of the American Political Science Association.

Of the nine models, six predict an Obama victory, with three of those predicting a landslide. Another two are too close to call. The models also weigh the probability of their predicted outcomes; the median result predicts an 80 percent chance Obama will win.

http://rawstory.com/news/2008/Survey_6_out_of_9_early_1016.html