The Daily Widget, Fri 10/17 – O-382, M-156 – Ohio Still Close; Virginia Getting Stronger

1. ANALYSIS

Only six state polls were released yesterday, a brief break for the pollsters as they wait until after Wednesday night’s debate to gather more data. No states changed columns today.

Rasmussen released a poll for Ohio showing the race there a tie, 49 for each candidate. Unlike other pollsters, with the exception of Rasmussen’s last Ohio poll, Rasmussen has always shown John McCain leading there this year. It is still a close race in Ohio, but Rasmussen showing it as a tie is good news for us!

Virginia is continuing to poll at an average lead of Obama +6.5, beyond the margin of error. Christopher Newport University’s new Virginia poll gives Obama a 53.2 to 46.8 lead without considering third party candidates.

Rasmussen is also showing Barack Obama leading by 20 points in New York in a new poll conducted on October 14. In contrast, Survey USA polled New Yorkers on October 12, just two days earlier than Rasmussen, and found Obama leading by 33 points. That’s a 13 point difference. The two polls are averaged to Obama +26.5, and this accounts for Obama’s small drop in the popular vote since yesterday (see Figure 4a below).

Comparing the two New York polls’ crosstabs, Rasmussen has the male vote at McCain +1 while SUSA has the male vote at Obama +27. For the combined Latino, Asian, Native and Pacific Islander vote, Rasmussen is showing Obama +27 while SUSA is showing Obama +79. Rasmussen seems to have the edge on these results. But Rasmussen is also showing young voters polling at Obama +7 in New York while SUSA is showing them at Obama +42, and I would give that edge to SUSA. Sometimes averaging the polls balances these discrepancies, and this would be a good example of that.

It should be a busy weekend for state polls as many pollsters will want to measure the standings after the final debate this week. THE MATH Weekly post on Sunday morning should be quite interesting, and so should the Saturday Morning Data Dump results for this past week’s national poll crosstabs. Eighteen days remain!



2. NEW STATE POLLS


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


Connecticut Obama 56, McCain 39 (Rasmussen, 10/14 +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
New York Obama 57, McCain 37 (Rasmussen, 10/14 +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Ohio Obama 49, McCain 49 (Rasmussen, 10/14 +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Oregon Obama 54, McCain 41 (Rasmussen, 10/14 +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 53, McCain 37 (Muhlenberg College, 10/15 +/- 4.0, 595 LV)
Virginia Obama 53.2, McCain 46.8 (Christopher Newport Univ, 10/14 +/- 4.4, 500 LV)



3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)



^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.






4. POPULAR VOTE AND NATIONAL POLL SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 136 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth and new voter registration totals for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 4b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.



^ FIGURE 4c. This chart compares each polling agency’s latest polls with their averages for each candidate this year. The top section of the chart compares the Daily Tracking polls and my own projected popular vote for each candidate. The bottom section of the chart compares the National Tracking polls (usually released monthly). Each section is totaled and averaged, and an overall average is shown at the very bottom of the chart. The latest polls released for each polling agency are displayed in the center columns for each candidate, as well as Obama’s current lead in those polls (a negative number denotes Obama trailing McCain in that poll). The columns on the right show each polling agency’s averaged results since May 1.



5. OBAMA’S SEVENTEEN



^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.



^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.



^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.



6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.






7. LINKS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Saturday Data Dump
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes


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So much for McLoser pulling out of Maine. :( They are Robocalling up here. Guess where? The 2nd district from what I have heard.

LMD says "hi" and :bounce:

Still a loss :D

:donut: Good morning to you :hi: :hi: and :bounce: :hi: Hi to LMD!

Someone mentioned that he is up 7pts in the 2nd dist. (I've got to stop and breathe.) ;-)

:hi:

If I run across one, I'll PM you with it :D

Good morning Widgeteers!

I'm starting to sound like a children's book popular with the pre-reading beditme story set....

Thanks again for a lovely update. The gut-shot country looks like it's healing at last (map under Fig. 3c). May it be so!

Are you kidding?! LMD and the twinkies would probably dig little Widgeteers shirts or a secret decoder ring. :D

:donut: Good morning, Demeter! :hi:

Have a good weekend... Falcons owner Arthur Blank is doing a fundraiser for Obama..

Especially now, with only two weeks left and the race tightening there ...

:donut: Good morning to you, gd7 :hi:

Thank you, as always, for your insightful analysis. I love how TEN of 2004's "red" states are in the blue column now, but NONE of 2004's "blue" states are in the red column. These 10 states represent 117 electoral votes, and Obama only has to win 18 of them to secure the Presidency (assuming that he holds the states that Kerry won, which looks likely). Not to mention that IN and ND are on the verge of going blue! Obama's chances are looking better and better every day! :)

Have a great weekend! :hi:

All the Kerry states are polling at Obama +5 or greater. I didn't notice the number of red states polling blue, so thanks for pointing that out ... that's one-third of the 2004 red states. Who would have guessed we could dig so deeply into red territory?

:donut: Good morning, racaulk! :hi:

:donut: Good morning, mucifer :hi:

:hug:

:hug: GPG! :hi:

Great work, THX !

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

:evilgrin: Sorry, just kidding, had to be done.

Unless either Obama is found in bed with a dead hooker or McCain brings a dead kid back to life, it's over.

lol ... or Obama would need to eat a baby smothered in swampg8r sauce on live television :7

:hi:

+11.

A dramatic turn around in a district where Republicans have a + 11 advantage.

Intrade continues to reinforce out polling side and the sharp increases in IN and NC are very encouraging. Indiana going Blue is of course a game ender for McCain and a bellweather indicator of a landslide.

The difference between a solid win and a landslide at this point is Indiana. Makes sense.

:hi:

is a very good sign - that people have basically decided and are firm in their opinion.

Wild swings at this point - even if they were going up - would not be helpful.

Already seeing that in the crosstabs ... McCain gaining a point here and a point there, nothing really significant.

At this rate, by Nov. 4th, he'll be down to only 364. :P

:spray:

You must have read the Oh NOOO thread, lol

:hi:

or rather PFC thanks. I'm more like Radar O'Reilly with a teddy bear than Major Frank Burns who would vote for Hotlips Palin :7