I was getting ready for work this morning so I didn't totally hear on Scarborough-but he was talking

Robyn66

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Fri Oct-17-08 07:39 AM
Original message

I was getting ready for work this morning so I didn't totally hear on Scarborough-but he was talking...

Edited on Fri Oct-17-08 07:39 AM by Robyn66

about a poll showing a 2 point difference between Obama and Mc-Same? And Joe was all " I KNEW IT COULDN'T BE SUCH A WIDE SPREAD BLA BLA BLa" Did any one watch it and can you tell me which poll it was?
Thanks guys

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Sebass1271

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Fri Oct-17-08 07:40 AM
Response to Original message

1. Gallup Poll

but Obama is up in all others by six points.

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Mike Daniels

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Fri Oct-17-08 07:42 AM
Response to Original message

2. Gallop daily tracking poll of likely voters

Edited on Fri Oct-17-08 07:42 AM by Mike Daniels

Incidentally, Morning Joe spent the entire morning talking like Joe the Plumber was still completely legitimate.

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PRETZEL

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Fri Oct-17-08 07:43 AM
Response to Original message

3. CNN is joining the party,

woke up at 4 this morning. Was watching a replay of Low Dobbs and they were saying the same thing.

Can't have the election over this early, can they.

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HughMoran

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Fri Oct-17-08 07:45 AM
Response to Original message

4. Oft repeated panic posts here

nothing to worry about yet - this one was alyways lower than their reported number of Obama up 6.

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Robyn66

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Fri Oct-17-08 10:19 AM
Response to Reply #4

11. I am far from panicked I was just curious where the poll came from

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Ilsa

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Fri Oct-17-08 07:58 AM
Response to Original message

5. Yeah, Gallup sampled 1200 voters in Ignorance, Texas where I live.

I hope we can get that many voters for Obama out.

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asdjrocky

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Fri Oct-17-08 08:00 AM
Response to Original message

6. Two words-

National poll.

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Higher Standard

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Fri Oct-17-08 08:05 AM
Response to Original message

7. He was cherry-picking yesterday's Gallup Daily

He picked the numbers from the traditional Likely Voter model, which is not generally the one that they promote. The other likely voter model they use showed Obama up by 6 and their registered voter model (which is the one they generally promote) showed him up by 6, as well.

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Thrill

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Fri Oct-17-08 08:07 AM
Response to Original message

8. Let them. It keeps our people energized. They won't take actually voting for granted

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WeDidIt

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Fri Oct-17-08 08:08 AM
Response to Original message

9. Gallup Daily Tracking Likely Voters "Traditional Model"

This means they throw out anybody who has never voted before and weight according to the 2004 turnout.

I'll take a e point lead in that model any day of the week.

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yardwork

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Fri Oct-17-08 02:13 PM
Response to Reply #9

15. That would seriously undercount all the new voters for Obama.

That's nonsense just based on demographics. Young people favor Obama and there are more of them than there were four years ago.

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CoffeeCat

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Fri Oct-17-08 08:14 AM
Response to Original message

10. I think it's good to have a close poll...

...come out, because I think some Obama supporters may have become complacent--because
many believed it might be a landslide.

We need to constantly be reminded that this is a close race. We need to behave as if
we're 5 points behind.

With that said, national polls mean something--but they are secondary to what's happening
in the swing states. Those are the polls that mean the most.

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Pattib

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Fri Oct-17-08 10:23 AM
Response to Reply #10

12. I agree. Glad he said just that yesterday. We need to stay vigilant. We can win this!

I know it's killing the media to have Obama to far out. They want a close race, damn it. They will spin this to death to get people hyped up and watching. They need those dollars and ratings.

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grantcart

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Fri Oct-17-08 10:25 AM
Response to Original message

13. here are the spread on Gallup - basically he is at 6 points as well

Gallup Poll
10/13-15/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National

Registered Voters (2,786 RV, 2%):
Obama 49, McCain 43

Likely Voters-Expanded (2,312 LV, 2%):
Obama 51, McCain 45

Likely Voters-Traditional (2,143 LV, 2%):
Obama 49, McCain 47

By Eric Dienstfrey on October 16, 2008 1:19 PM | Permalink

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Robyn66

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Fri Oct-17-08 02:07 PM
Response to Original message

14. The basic facts have not changed

We have to get out the vote like we are 10 points behind. It doesn't matter what the polls say!

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Phx_Dem

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Fri Oct-17-08 03:10 PM
Response to Original message

16. Chuck Todd (yeah, I know) and some other pollster gave an

Edited on Fri Oct-17-08 03:11 PM by Phx_Dem

easy-to-understand explanation. Gallup conducted 3 polls using different samples and getting different results for each.

The 2-point poll was based on the 2004 voter model, meaning that they assume the same turnout as 2004. They did another poll which widened the voter turn out to include the newly registered voters, showed Obama leading by 6 pts. (I can't remember the 3rd poll)

Both Todd and the other guy said the 2 pt poll was likely not accurate because of the landscape (voter turnout).

In short, it's bullshit. Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com said the same thing. It's bullshit.

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