Obama's lead is probably 4-5% bigger than the polls say ... here's why ....

When you add in these factors:

1. Obama's extraordinary ground game- I've read many reports about Obama having many times the number of volunteers canvassing in swing states than McCain. Plus, the organization of Obama's staff is unmatched in US political history, with leaders running things at the neighborhood level- neighbors convincing neighbors. Conventional wisdom among politicos is that a very strong ground game is worth a couple of percentage points on election day.

2. The underpolling of cell phone users, which is a much bigger factor this year than in 2004.

3. Many polls are not accounting for the historic levels of African-American turnout, as evidenced by what has occurred in early voting in Georgia. Anectdotal reports I have seen show a similar surge in campus voting areas.

4. Many polls are not accounting for the huge numbers of new voters that Obama has registered.

And properly so.

It may suppress their totals in key Congressional districts and add to Obama's totals and elect many down-ballot Dems.

I just want him to win.

In fact, it would be very fun to win in a 2000 scenario. Just as long as the election was never in any doubt.

I want to win BIG, in a LANDSLIDE with 60 Senate Seat Coattails.

The 2000 scenario is a nightmare, the pukes will challenge some states and drag it to the neo-con Supreme Court.

I would love to get those fuckers back for 2000 and make them feel just as much pain as we did then.

Sorry to be so blunt, but why the hell would you want that to happen? Just to say "hahahaha, we got you this time!"?

In case you haven't noticed, the Supreme Court isn't exactly in our corner.

A win is a win, but that would be nightmarish to contemplate.

I think Obama needs at least +5% in the polls in order to win.

plus, a lot more cell phone users now.

Here in northern Europe the use of mobile phones has not changed much in four years, but maybe in America.

HUGE difference between now and 2004.

We don't know how many newly registered will actually vote, we don't know if scare tactics actually work and we don't know how much the race factor really matters.

We have to win big or they will steal it and send us home.

Then maybe people would stop talking about who Obama would pick for his cabinet and put efforts into GOTV. We are behind as far as Im concerned.

I want people scared out of their socks. It's the only way everybody will get out and vote.

But I'll settle for 270 too. :)

EVERYBODY NEEDS TO VOTE FOR OBAMA. You can't not vote, because you live in California, etc. No matter where you vote and how safe your state is, you can't use your vote to make a statement and vote for Nader, Kucinich, etc. (If you want to make statement then write a letter to the editor. Don't waste the ONLY VOICE you have in this election on a meaningless vote.)

The popular vote is IMPORTANT. 1) As mentioned, it gives Obama mandate. 2) If, God forbid, the election is very close, popular vote will be important.

The Supreme Court would act just the opposite that they did in 2000, even if it makes them seem mega-hypocritical. They would allow recount after recount until McCain won.

That was true in the past....this is NOW.

First, they have never been enthusiastic about a candidate, because the young are smart and they have good bullshit detectors and are not impressed with politicians. Obama is not your run-of-the-mill politician. They are very enthusiastic.

Second, we have all discussed this and have decided that they need a stake in an election in order to get involved...like the draft. Well, we don't have a draft but they do have a stake. They know that after they graduate it won't be a given that they immediately find a great job and start living the good life. If things continue as they are, after school they'll be moving back with their mommy and daddy...which may be worse than the draft.

Third, there's talk that if dems feel Obama is a shoe in, they might not vote. Wrong. This is a historic, once in a lifetime, election...people WANT to be part of it. They don't just want Obama to win, they want to cast that vote for Obama. The young crowd especially, many who are voting for the first time want to be part of it. They love to interact, whether it's video games, computers, etc...casting their vote on that touch screen is interacting...being part of it. Who wants to say 10 years from now, yes, it was an exciting time, but I didn't vote because I had to do my laundry that day.

Fourth, if people are willing to stand in line for several hours just to see Obama, I don't think they'll mind standing in line to vote for him. The registrars across the country know better than any of us the huge increase in voter registration and they all expect huge turnouts and are planning for that event as we speak.

If they were motivated to do THAT, I can see this carrying through to the general.

While they can't be 100% accurate, reliable pollsters like Rasmussen or Gallup do take into account some of the factors you just mentioned .Look at their party ID breakdown and compare it to the actual numbers of the 2004 elections.

We tend to discredit pollsters everytime they don't show the numbers we want to see and that's ridiculous IMO .