TPM Track Composite: Obama Ahead By Six Points (49.9%-43.9%) -- No change since pre-debate.

TPM Track Composite: Obama Ahead By Six Points
from TPM Election Central by Eric Kleefeld

Here's our daily composite of the five major national tracking polls. Barack Obama is holding a sizable lead over John McCain, and has slightly expanded it after a momentary dip yesterday:

• Gallup: Obama 51%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 50%-46% Obama lead yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 50%-45% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 48%, McCain 41%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, compared to a 49%-42% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 50%, McCain 43%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Zogby: Obama 48%, McCain 45%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 48%-44% Obama lead yesterday.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 49.9%-43.9%, a lead of six points, compared to the 49.5%-44.3% Obama lead from yesterday.

Note that this is the first day of polling taken entirely after Wednesday's debate. The pre-debate baseline was an Obama lead of 50.3%-43.7%, meaning that McCain has barely made a dent since then.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/tpm_track_composite_obama_ahea_3.php

The longer it has lasted, the more cemented it is and the less likely it is to change, right? (I hope.)

If nothing else, it means good news for us because of the existence of early voting.

This will either go two ways: Obama will pick up and expand his lead, or they'll stay stable for the next two weeks.