My theory about why McCain has doubled down on my state, PA

McCain needs to win all six of the following states to win the election. ALL six:

NC, FL, PA, OH, MO, NV


If he loses even ONE of them, he likely will lose the election - because he's pulled out, or is pulling out, of all of the other battleground states.


Of those 6 states, ALL are close except PA. So McCain's gambit is this:

1. Win the 5 of 6 states that are within range.

2. Pour everything into turning the tide in PA.


Why PA?

1. There is no early voting in PA. Not a single vote (except for absentee) will be cast in PA until 7am on November 4th. That means that McCain has two weeks to change the narrative. The other states listed above have early voting - and McCain has less ability to create a sea change there.

2. PA is second only to Florida in average age of the voting public. We're chock full of old people here. Old people are more susceptible to fears about Obama being an "other". Ayers and Wright and "socialism" will tend to work more with older whites than with any other Demographic.

3. The McCain camp has already filed a lawsuit against ACORN in PA (similar to the one that was dismissed in Ohio last week). This is to lay the ground work for a challenge.

4. McCain will lose the Philly area by 500,000 to 700,000 votes. He will probably win the rest of the state by 300,000 to 400,000 votes. Where is ACORN *MOST* active in PA? In the Philly area. If he can successfully challenge a few hundred thousand votes in the Philly area in the courts, he can win the state.

5. Because PA has a Democratic Governor and Democratic Sec. of State, the McCain campaign can argue for the lawsuit to be expedited to the courts because of "bias" in the governing agencies.

If McCain can pull off a win in the other five states in the six listed, then he will be within 21 electoral votes of 270.

At that point, PA gets challenged by McCain in the same way that Florida was challenged by Gore. They'll claim that ACORN's "corruption" in Philly is too difficult to measure and that PA's results should be invalidated. Will a court made up of conservatives Roberts, Alito, Scalia and Thomas... and liberals Breyer, Stevens, Ginsberg, and Souter... and "swing" vote Kennedy.... rule in McCain or Obama's favor?

Even if they ruled in Obama's, the right would claim the win was "illegitimate". 2000 in the mirror.


In any case.... *THAT* is what is behind the "PA Gambit". How do we stop it?


Win in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri, OR Nevada. A win in any of the five would invalidate McCain's strategy.

Certainly MO and NV.

I don't think he'll let him get away with stuff.

I was furious at him for how he rolled over back in 2000. He was almost immediately urging Gore to "move on" and give up.

He was a very good mayor, and is an OK governor, but he STUNK as DNC Chairman.

You win PA, you pick up the 9 you would lose in CO plus 12 more.

And i think No. 2 on your list is the most important point here. Never been to PA, or OH, for that matter, but from gut feel I get the impression W. PA is a lot like Ohio. Old, broke and chock full of "values voters" who would rather live in a box than vote for someone who is pro choice and black.

Now, if Obama can hold on to a 6-8 pt. lead there none of this matters.

Obama is more than likely to pick up a few of the other states which would make McCain's win in PA pointless.

And like in OH, McCain has to go against Democrats in positions that count in PA. They would have to steal it as the whole Philly area is very strong for Obama.

it went red in 2004

and had been trending red for much recent time

whereas in 2004 it was a tossup

The Nevada GOP corruptly made sure that Ron Paul didn't have any delegates from that state. I guarantee you that they haven't forgotten about it.

...all of which he is behind at the moment.


BUT! From his point of view:

5 of the 6 are "red" states from 2004.

The one that is a "blue" state, PA, has a lot of racist whites in the central, western, and northern parts of the state.

ACORN is active in PA, which gives him a groundwork for a "challenge".



I think Fast Eddie will make sure that disenfranchisement in Philly is kept to a minimum. If Obama can win PA by 400,000 or more votes, it becomes unchallengeable.



But keep this in mind: In most of Western PA, the voting machines are Diebold touch screens with no paper trail.

if he 'wins' Pennsylvania it will be considered a theft. And with Ed Rendell as governor, Fast Eddie won't let McCain get away with it. This isn't Ohio or Florida where the repukes were in charge.

Yeah... I know.

Scary.


I'm photographing my vote.... but that doesn't mean the internal computer will count it properly.

Doesn't PA have secretary of the Commonwealth? So Rendell doesn't have to be the only one watching.

Good news.

Good night! :hi:

If someone could manage to videotape an instance of vote-flipping on one of those machines in the context of an actual election (such as been already reported to happen this year in West Virginia), it would go a long, long way toward forcing our leaders to correct the problem!

I actually think the ones where the "flip" is visible (in WV) are actual BUGS.


A person programming the machine to flip votes wouldn't have it show up visible on the screen.

Except that there were reports of this happening in various states in 2004 as well.

If it was simply "bugs", you would expect that there would have been instances when the reverse was true as well - people voting for the Repug candidate having their vote 'switched' to the Democrat. I don't think anyone ever reported that happening.

Perhaps the 'bug' is not the vote flip, but that it shows up on the screen!

(plus the non-touch-screen computer screen (you use a wheel to navigate through the screen and press the buttons on the console) which is supposed to be for voters with disabilities (though it's WAY more complicated than filling out the paper ballot, IMHO).

I don't think it will work though. PA has been pretty set in the polls for awhile. I don't think Obama is that vulnerable there.

I don't think McCain was ever ahead in the PA polls and he darn sure isn't now.

Just fyi

We also have paper ballots or touch screens, your choice. MO is always close. ALWAYS. And St. Louis and KC are ALWAYS last to report. So, if Obama is down early on in MO, it's because St. Louis or KC has not reported yet. But if you look at Clair McCaskill's race, she was down all night, late into the night, until St. Louis came in and put her over the top.

I was just pointing out the error in the OP's post. My partner works for the MO Sec State's office, and Robin Carnahan is one of the best ever. Thanks to her, we're probably not going to face the problems we had in 2004. I do hope St. Louis is better prepared this time though...they had huge lines in '04 and it will much more intense this time. If all the votes in St. Louis get properly counted, I think they will boost the state for Obama.

Yea, McCain will TRY to rile up the sticks into a crazy racist frenzy, but the sheer amount of votes coming out of Philly and the suburbs will put him over. Plus, Biden is the third senator from PA.

then I don't think he has a leg to stand on. If no ineligible voter actually casts a ballot, then WTF would he be challenging? Lawful votes? Does he really want to go out like that? You would have every major civil rights organization filing suit on behalf of minority voters in Philly. This ACORN mess is nothing but CAMPAIGN fodder, not a real basis for a legal challenge.

to an Obama win. These people would not be newly registered for McCain.

Obama is either leading or statistically tied in all those states (NC, FL, PA, OH, MO, NV). So let's say that he has a 50% chance of winning in each of those 6 "toss-up" states. Even that's being quite conservative since his lead in PA and NV are pretty big right now. The likelihood that he will win NONE of those states is 0.5^6, which comes down to about a 1-2% chance. Also, if you consider NV and PA in that "toss-up" bunch, there's also a few states where McCain is leading by less than Obama's margins in PA and NV.

Gonna get REALLY ugly. And I think the worst of it will come during the last few days, so that the Obama campaign has limited time to counter. I'm thinking after Obama's last 30 minute TV buy on Oct 29...

PA is the biggest of the states involved, with the most EVs. Winning PA would have the same effect as, say, winning two out of VA, NC and CO.

So, given that the McCain campaign is pretty much on the ropes, what makes more sense: investing your time, money, and effort in two states where you have to win both to have a chance, or trying for the same EV benefit in a place where you only have to win one?

It's a crapshoot from a craps player. That's all there is to it.

I think you're onto something. Nicely done.

<http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7534721&mesg_id=7534721

..during the last few days. I'd just keep them in 3 corners of that state. Then have Rendell take the 4th corner. If anything happens, get all of them together for a huge rally.

Chances are Pennsylvania voters' affection for them will counter any stupid tactic the McCain camp unleashes.

A lot can change. Unlikely it will, but let's see McCain try it.

This is an important post.

They have canvased HARD around here. I think they have a sign everywhere possible.

My theory is despite all the McCain signs - everyone that has no sign is an Obama voter!

The local GOP here is in a schism...this is really a dying gasp...

We might even get rid of Shuster!

I'm sure the NRA will run tons of ads saying that Obama will take away your hunting rifles. PA. has an extremely high number of hunters.

but he will continue to campaign hard here, especially in the last week.

I grew up in the Pittsburgh area. As long as things haven't changed it will be a solid blue. These are the core working class people that Obama has been targeting all along. There may be a very slight Bradley effect here, but that would be negated by the contempt many moderates feel about the McCain/Palin (especially Palin) ticket.

The city of Philadelphia itself is again very blue. The ACORN challenge isn't going anywhere. Having Joe Biden on the ticket was a good move since alot of Philadelphians have known Joe Biden for a long time (almost as well as Arlen Spector) given the close proximity to Delaware. Again as in the Pittsburgh area, many moderates will vote Obama for the same reasons given in Pittsburgh. The Inquirer's endorsement, and for what it's worth, conservative Mike Smerconish's endorsement of Obama, shouldn't be overlooked. They may not know him and his views directly, but they would read his op-ed and agree with him in general. The center-right of the GOP here in Philly was given a very good endorsement of Obama. They have their own talking points now. That may help more than peopel realize.

Lots of racist Dems in Pennsylvania - older white voters who are "afraid" of Obama.

The good news? I can't see any the of the 3 racists Dems I know standing in any sort of line to vote McCain. The motivation is just not there. The fear level is just not that high.

The Obama supporters? Whole 'nother story - they'll be in line until midnight if that's what it takes.

(One of the few benefits to being the Democratic Committeewoman for my little area who gets up early and oversees the opening of the polls with Republican Committeeman - no long line to vote!)

it'll be interesting to see the early exit polling. From what I've seen over the years is that the tendency is for older voters to vote early. If there's a drop in those numbers then I think that's a good sign for Obama as "closet racist" have chosen to sit on their hands. And you're absolutely right that there isn't the motivation for them to vote McCain.

We'll also have to see what effect the Obama ad's concerning the taxing and cutting of medicaid benefits that McCain has proposed will have on those fears. That could be a negating effect.

this election because our candidate is black, has decided to hold his nose and just do it. Obama impressed him in the debates and McLame is worse than anyone could have imagined. He can't get around so good so he's voting (or already voted) absentee, but he told my MIL he just can't let McShame get in there, he's looking out for his kids and grandkids and doing what's right. NE Philadelphia, btw. I'm hoping there's a lot of those older Dems coming home in the end.

Which is a GOP strong hold and I still cant see McCain winning PA. I never seen this much support in this area for a Dem running for President. Obama will do better then Kerry or Gore in these parts. I say Obama wins PA by 8+

this year. And a lot more Obama signs all over the place!

P.S. Did you feel those two earthquakes in York County (Dillsburg)?

Anyone who thinks we have PA in the bag should not be so cocky, and be out there phone banking and canvassing.

I don't think McCain can pull it off, but this theory does explain his strategy. Well done.

:dem:

-Laelth

If McCain wins those five and challenges PA, Barack simply needs to insure McCain doesn't get PA's electoral votes. Barack won't need them so long as McCain doesn't get them.

Barack wins in the House.

McCain is running the longshot strategy. This is like a gambler down to his last buck who buys a lottery ticket because winning the lottery is the only way to pay off the loan sharks before they come to collect.

His possible strategies are flying out the window and he has no more wiggle room. Even though he is far behind, he really doesn't have any other choices to go after.

:kick: and r

I kept wondering why they had Palin skulking around Philly so many days...this makes sense now especially your first point...no early voting...makes sense that they are going to campaign now where they can actually change votes.

McCain will tap into. Listening to the largest radio station in W PA (KDKA) I heard a caller to a talk show say that he ordered hundreds of bumper stickers that say "Vote Right, Vote White". I don't know whether McCain offices are distributing those.

By the way - a lot of people are saying "demand a paper ballot". In Allegheny County, "paper ballots" are either (1)the "provisional ballots", which may take up to a week to be checked and verified before they are counted; or (2)"emergency ballots". However "emergency ballots" can only be used in the case of a specified emergency, such as prolonged power failure, and only then if the Judge of Elections at your polling place receives personal instruction to use them from the County Election office.

If you want your vote counted ON election night, you have to have voted an Absentee Ballot, or you must have voted on the machine. (If emergency ballots are authorized, they will also be counted on election night.)

The key thing to remember when voting in Allegheny County, is that at the end of the whole process, you press the red Vote button above the top center of the screen of your voting machine. The machine then asks you to verify your vote and you must EITHER press the red vote button a SECOND time, OR press a "confirm" box on your screen. Then the machine will flash a "thank you for voting" message on your screen (but only for a few seconds) and the screen will go blank. If a voter leaves without following the last step, the machine will NOT count your vote. After some 10 or 15 seconds, the machine sounds a beeping alarm, which signals "fleeing voter" to the election board. Unless the voter is still in the area to be brought back to the machine and complete his/her vote, two members of the election board will have to cancel the vote.

It's going to be long day and night for those of us working the polls. I'll be leaving home at 5 a.m. and have until the following 2 a.m. to close down the polls; open, count and record the absentee ballots; print out the vote count tapes from the machines; close up and seal the machines and turn in the votes and all the back up material from my polling place to the county collection point. Anyone in line by the closing time of 8 p.m. must be allowed to vote, and it is up to the discretion of the election judge whether to allow anyone showing up AFTER 8 p.m., but while people are still voting, to vote.

IF YOU'RE VOTING AT A NEW POLLING PLACE AND/OR ARE NEWLY REGISTERED - BRING PHOTO ID WITH YOU.

They even have a rally now and then. Lots of Confederate flags on cars. Lot of pinheads.

I spoke to a Obama supporter (a transplant from Georgia to S.E. PA the other day who said she's met way more blatant racists here in PA than she ever did in Georgia!

PA is very heavy union and so many of the big ones are out continually talking to their membership state-wide in support of Obama. That's why McKKKlan is trying to scare people with nonsense about the Employee Free Choice Act.

but I don't think it will work. It's some kind of crazy hail mary pass perhaps and it may just be the only card they have to play at this point.

No matter what he does!!!

Another one of his stupid stunts.

PA is surrounded by blue states and the O Campaign is clever enough to use volunteers from us to work on PA. Delaware used to be part of PA and we will make them part of DE for this election! They will go our way!!!!

Since no early voting, will there be independent exit polls on Nov 4?

... in the border areas.

(and, sadly, I think he believes that the "otherness" issue can be more effectively leveraged in PA & OH, which is the only thing he's running on, now)

Race baiting will backfire in CO, and IA. Iowa loves Obama, and CO has Hispanics that McCain has already lost due to the racial undertones of his campaign. I think they are going racial full-scale, and they are only focusing on states where they think that will work and not backfire.

meeting tonight some volunteers mentioned mccain's thugs were moving into Philly and Pittsburgh to organized voter supression in the big populace cities.

We had about a hundred peeps there who were all excited about phone banking and traveling to PA on the weekends:bounce: to do whatever Obama offices has layed out.

and just got a call from Maryland for my daughter who is in the military, wanting her to vote for McCain. I told the woman that she's in the military and stationed elsewhere. She asked if my daughter was voting for McCain and I told her no. Asked if I was voting for McCain-I laughed and said "no." Then she asked me if I had read this book-I asked her if it was Corsi's book-she said "no." She gave me the name of the book, unfortunately, I forgot the name. Something titled "The Obama Deception". Oh hell, can't think of the name. Anyway, she said I should really read it because it shows that we can't have Obama in the WH--she's really afraid. I asked her about the author-was he a member of the PNAC, was he a neo-con? She didn't know, but the whole nation is lost if O wins. I told her I wasn't for deregulation and we have already had almost eight years of hell!!! She said McCain isn't Bush. I told her Mccain is for deregulation and I am not!!! I mentioned Charles Keating who served five years in prison for the S&L and that he was a main contributor to McCain. She said, well some things must be deregulated. I told her the government has cut employees from FDA, USDA-we have more recalls on food and other items than I've ever seen. I told her my daughter is in the military and her fiance is in Iraq, and we do not need to be there for another 100 years. Then, I told her look how the Republicans treated Kerry--three purple hearts, a bronze star, a silver star--it was a disgrace!!! She said that he went against the soldiers. I told her my father was in Vietnam, my friends were in Vietnam-they witnessed the stacking of bodies for the bodycount. Kerry came home and did the right thing--I told her "WE ARE NOT GOOD GERMANS-WE ARE AMERICANS!!! (sorry about the German thing, I got carried away) Then, to my surprise, she mentioned Obama's birth certificate--I told her he has a valid HI birth certificate, and if you want to bring that up-McCain was born in Panama and not on the base. Finally, I asked her if anything happened to McCain, do you think Palin could handle the job? She stated that Palin has all the fundamentals to take his place. I told her, yeah a fundie for fundamentals.

Didn't know I was going to get into a debate tonight over the phone. But, what bothered me, is she mentioned the BC--very deceptive. There was more back and forth, I didn''t mention, but the woman had time to debate with me--is she desperate????

He's broke and a LOT of GOP money comes out of the Philly burbs. I don't think he believes he has a chance in hell of winning PA but he is desperately in need of money and they won't cough it up if he doesn't practically camp out here until the election and significantly close the gap. There's a reason why Bush was here nearly 50 times while he's been in office.