There will be suprise result in PPP Indiana poll tomorrow-- Obama doing better in IN than FL

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/10/florida-and-indiana-clue.html


Florida and Indiana Clue

Here's one to let your heads spin until tomorrow: Obama is doing better in our Indiana poll than our Florida one.


edited to add

that 12 out of the last 13 polls show Obama ahead in FL although it is still tight so a single bad poll in FL should not be taken as too signfificant

http://www.pollster.com/polls/fl/08-fl-pres-ge-mvo.php

While virtually all of the polls taken in the 10/12-10/14 range had Obama with a solid lead, only two polls have been taken since then, and both of them show McCain up: SUSA with M+2, and Rasmussen M+1. Narrow margins, of course, but the trendline isn't good for us.

Gallup, Zogby and Rasmussen tightened last week. My guess is some of these numbers are residuals from that 3-4 days where McCain got a micro bounce.

I would expect FLA to trend back our way this time next week as there is typically a lag on the state polls when one candidate makes a move nationally. A rising tide lifts all boats.

He's campaigned there a lot.

How many new registered Dems do we have in Indiana?

They hadn't yet counted the month of September. That's really when our local small town Obama group started reeling them in.

He could be doing extremely well in Indiana or could be doing extremely bad in Florida.

If you look at 538.com, IN has been steadily but narrowly red pretty much the entire polling cycle. FL was looking good for Obama until about a week ago, but the only two polls taken after 10/14 have shown McCain up by a handful of points. My guess is that FL flipped over the past week, and is heading into solidly McCain territory. :-(

And so far, Obama is still in the lead, however narrow it may be.

There is NO evidence whatsoever it's "heading to solidly McCain territory."

IF he wins the pop vote nationally by eight or nine he is not losing Florida...Florida is only a couple of point more Republican than the rest of the nation; not six or seven...

Obama does have comparative weakness in certain states. That was not a myth in the primaries. States like Florida, Ohio and Nevada may demonstrate an apparent red shift in the partisan index (state margin compared to national margin).

In 2004, Nevada and Ohio were slightly blue compared to the nation, with Florida about 2.5 points red. It wouldn't surprise me if all 3 moved red in partisan index this cycle. For example, you might remember in 2004 I was very confident Ohio would virtually mirror the national margin. And it did, very slightly blue. This time I would expect perhaps 2 points red. That's not necessarily an indication of a fundamental shift, as much as Obama weakness in that specific state. IMO, Hillary would have kept Ohio where it was in 2004, virtually identical to the national margin. Whether she would have this type of national margin is obviously up for debate. The vast majority here will want to shout no, but that's more a residue of naturally wanting to have handicapped correctly, than any basis in reality.

Of course, shift in the partisan index doesn't matter as long as Obama maintains this type of national lead. It's offset by better partisan index expectations in states like Colorado and Virginia and New Hampshire. That's not necessarily due to Obama. Those states were obviously trending Democratic regardless of the nominee. I'll be most interested in Virginia. For several years I've expected about +2 red this cycle in the partisan index. A state with a large move will likely be Indiana, although I still expect something in the neighborhood of +8 to +10 red.

The spin hints that he's doing GOOD in Indiana, not that he's doing bad in Florida.

He could be up 3% in Florida and 5% in Indiana.

I'm telling you, we are working very hard here against the red tide that has befallen us most of my life! They are breaking, I tell ya! They are breaking!

She said the Republicans in that state are willing to give the Governor another term. But they just don't feel comfortable with McCain. Thats whats going on there

Can't think of one thing that would cause a big game changer in Florida, expect a two or three point lead in Indiana with a one or two point lead in Florida.