10/21 - A look at the polls and Election Day Scenarios (McCain is gaining)

October 21, 2008
Current poll numbers from Pollster.com
Days Remaining: 14


Candidate - Electoral Votes
Obama-Strong - 247
Obama-Leaning - 39
Obama Total - 286

McCain-Strong - 137
McCain-Leaning - 20
McCain Total - 157

Toss-Up - 95


Significant changes today
- Florida moves from Obama-Leaning to Toss-Up.
- Obama slips 1 point in Ohio. (Now a dead-heat with Obama's lead at 1.7)


Current Toss-Ups (Electoral Votes) Obama Advantage/Deficit
Nevada (5) 3.3
Montana (3) -3.7
North Dakota (3) 3.6
Missouri (11) 1.3
Indiana (11) -3.1
Ohio (20) 1.7
North Carolina (15) 3.6
Florida (27) 3.3


Current Obama-Leaning (Electoral Votes) Obama Advantage
Washington (11) 7.5
Colorado (9) 6.7
New Mexico (5) 7.5
Minnesota (10) 6.9
New Hampshire (4) 6.6


Scenario
(Based on current numbers)

McCain wins all McCain-Strong and McCain-Leaning, plus all Toss-Ups.
Obama - 286
McCain - 252

While the above scenario still results in an Obama victory, Obama has less wiggle-room than he did yesterday with Florida now included as a Toss-Up and McCain's slight gains elsewhere. The good news is that all Obama-Leaning states have him with a 6.6 percent advantage or more. Assuming Obama keeps all of his "strong" states, let us consider the Obama-Leaning states that could - in addition to all of the Toss-Ups - bring McCain to the White House. Greg Palast exposed voter-suppression in New Mexico in 2004 and has reported on a massive voter purge in Colorado this time around (http://www.gregpalast.com/obama-doesn%E2%80%99t-sweat-he-should/">link).

If we assume New Mexico and Colorado are thrown to McCain in this fashion, the totals come to:
Obama - 272
McCain - 266

Obama still wins, but must hold all other states, including tiny New Hampshire.


Interpretation
- McCain has gained in significant, albeit small ways since yesterday. And with established vote-suppression operations in Ohio and Florida, the tightening polls in those states are bad news indeed.
- Despite being in New England and surrounded by solid Obama territory, New Hampshire remains as the state in which Obama's lead is the lowest for any state not considered a Toss-Up.
- Many people on both sides are scratching their heads at McCain and Palin campaigning in Pennsylvania. If they know something we don't know, the state's 21 electoral votes could be a death blow.
- McCain is still very much in this fight.

... deny Americans our rights (voting, due process, privacy, etc.) for causes they consider superior is very real and demonstrated fact.

He seems to know what's going on, when compared to Gore who seemed completely blindsided and Kerry with his supposed legal team who did little after Ohio was thrown under the bus.

We win WITHOUT OH, VA or FL

Wake me when there is some change beyond or even close to the MOE.

Does anybody really believe that any of these polls has the resolution to detect a 1 point shift?

But, I admit, it's very interesting to wankers.

Red States are getting redder=the polls shift right..Theres no change in Battlegrounds and Blue.

OH and FL in particular are slightly trending back to McCain.

They needed to shore up their red state support before they could even think about going after a blue state like PA.

Of course the polls were going to tighten. The economy panic has calmed down somewhat, the media is lamenting about "poor widdle McCain", the race card has been dealt, etc.

But I really think this is the death rattle of the McCain campaign. This is where silly season ends and advertising and ground game advantages take over. That favors Obama in the coming days.

Makes about as much sense as your Colorado proposition.

Remember bush's smug comment re: Florida in 2000, after the networks declared it for Gore?

that they have at least 5% in the bag for a number of states. That is why we must get our margins over 10% to avoid the possibility of theft.

Unless he basically concedes, he has to claim that the win will come later. As it's gotten farther away from him, he has to make the time to close that bigger gap a longer time period.

Too bad for him, two weeks ain't near enough. Even if things were slowly moving his way on the electoral map. Which they're not.

a "concern troll" for posting this.

What we are seeing is that the state polls are catching up to the national trend , a narrowing of Obama's lead we've observed this past week.
Obama is still in a great position tho.

If McCain is banking on PA he has lost. He is not going to win PA and still hold unto states like North Carolina and actually I don't see him winning PA even if he spends all his remaining time and money there. In fact, he appears to be losing ground in PA in spite of being there almost nonstop.

like Reagan got in 1980 and Clinton in 1992. It's a change election. Registration and turnout favor Dems. Blue states are very blue and red states are not as red. Obama will win. Just get out and vote and help get others to vote and we'll be fine.

I guess no one else thinks that maybe.. just maybe.. Fox News (because they're paying for the poll) might not be HONEST? C'mon, the network is run by Roger Ailes for god's sake. And SURVEYUSA? I remember them from 2004, not impressed. Quite a few of the polls people are using on these sites are owned by McCain cronies (like Insider Advantage)

I have found that in the scheme of things, it's the newspaper polls that seem the most accurate when all is said and done. And I'd pretty much stand by what I'm seeing in the newspaper polls in Florida.

Oh, and the media stories now are talking about the "unreliability of exit polling" Which is total bullshit. Exit polls were completely reliable, until the repukes starting stealing elections in 2000 with their voting machines and voter caging.

It isn't just fox. Florida is very much in play. Obviously it is possible for Obama to hold his small lead and win it but I don't think anyone is calling it right now.

According to RCP, Obama's lead (averaging 10 polls) is WIDENING slightly(+5% over the weekend, 5.3% yesterday, 5.7% today), and the only place that has ANY positive trend for McCain is FL. ND and MT are slipping away from McCain, he's lost CO and NM, and he's slipped from a 3% lead to a 2.7% deficit in the past month in bellwether MO. Given the states that RCP and CNN put in obama's column at this point, McCain has to RUN THE TABLE of tossup states to have a chance, and even then, RCP says he can't make it.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

For Florida Obama +2 on RCP average of polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_mccain_vs_obama-418.html

More info here about electoral votes/ changes:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

A 1 point shift in a poll is meaningless...