Election day primer.

Two weeks from today, DU will probably be the busiest its ever been in the history of the site. I think we'll all be excited, nervous, cautious, optimistic, fearful and happy, but we'll also be looking for any information on the election, from exit polls to turnout. I want to just throw this out there for those who weren't here four years ago (or lurked).

Four years ago, on election day, a few internet blogs leaked exit polling data from a few key states. They indicated a landslide Kerry victory. They were premature.

These numbers were released at 2:00 EST, a good number of hours before polls closed back east. This is what they predicted.

Arizona: Bush 55, Kerry 45
Colorado: Bush 51, Kerry 48
Pennsylvania: Kerry 60, Bush 40
Ohio: Kerry 52, Bush 48
Florida: Kerry 51, Bush 48
Michigan: Kerry 51, Bush 47
New Mexico: Kerry 50, Bush 48
Minnesota: Kerry 58, Bush 40
Wisconsin: Kerry 52, Bush 43
Iowa: Kerry 49, Bush 49
New Hampshire: Kerry 57, Bush 41

http://www.mydd.com/story/2004/11/2/135756/299

These were huge numbers that quickly spread throughout message boards and blogs. Unfortunately, they were way off. Especially the results in Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin and New Hampshire.

Now I know there are many here who believe Ohio was stolen and there is ample evidence to suggest this. However, that isn't the point of this post. What it showed was that early exit polls, all of which were leaked long before work hours were over, showed Kerry doing better than he ultimately did, nearly across the board. The general belief, which is debatable, is that the Democrat was aided by early voters, much like Obama was in the primaries. This inflated early results, but by the time the networks went live, their exit polling done from morning until the polls closed showed it a far different race in both instances (primary '08, general '04) than the earlier exit polls suggested. Why? Well the general acceptable belief is that Democrats traditionally vote earlier, while Republicans do it after work. That changed the dynamics of election night 2004 and turned what looked like a Kerry victory into a stunning and heartbreaking loss.

The lesson we learned from 2004? Do not trust early exit polling data. Even if it shows Obama up in key states, it's likely false and should not be taken as anything more than just a minimal glimpse at election day from early morning until afternoon. Those numbers don't mean anything if they don't include late voters, voters who can't vote until after 5:00, which is when the polling places generally pick up.

So ignore exit polling data. It won't be easy and I'm sure someone will post the early numbers on DU around 2:00-5:00 EST. However, they will most likely be wrong and it'll either depress us or get our hopes up.

That doesn't mean, however, there aren't ways to figure out whether Obama is performing well or not. During the primaries, DEMOGRAPHIC data was released by the networks in the afternoon and early evening of the election and those are far more accurate than the exit poll numbers (the head-to-head) that were released not by the networks, but by blogs online.

Generally, the blogs at ABC or TIME will release these demographic polls later in the day, maybe a few hours before polls close back east. I'm sure they will show some key states like Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina and maybe even Indiana. They will show you the breakdown of voters based on certain demographic aspects like gender, religion, ethnicity and age. They will also probably show which candidate is winning each group.

So let's say ABC's blog releases NBC's exit polling demographic data at 4:00 EST. In that data, it shows the black vote making up 35% of the Virginia voters and Obama is winning that 95-5 (they made up 21% of the voters in 2004, Kerry won with 87%). Then they have the white vote, which McCain carries by only 55% (Bush carried it by 68% in 2004). You're looking at a possible Obama landslide. There won't be any direct numbers from the head-to-head results to support this, but you could gather based on the demographic breakdown Obama is over performing among white voters and the black voters are getting the vote out, which would equal a probable Obama victory there.

Beyond the demographic polls that will inevitably be released throughout the day on Nov. 4th, look at voter turnout. If voter turnout among the youth and black population is high, we're in good position. If voter turnout in Democratic strongholds are high, we're in good position. If there are hints that it might not be as high as expected, things could be closer than we'd like. That will be known by reports made from the ground by the media, bloggers, people on this board, local television, campaign officials and other means that I can't think of right now.

So when November 4th does roll around, you're probably going to be like me, looking for any hint of an Obama victory. Just be careful and don't take exit poll head-to-head results at face value, because you will probably be disappointed. Instead, look at voter turnout, the polls prior to election day, the demographic numbers that will be released throughout the day and if you're still not feeling it, head down to your local Obama or DNC headquarters, because they'll be directly linked to the official headquarters and the Obama campaign. They could probably tell you how things are looking.

Hopefully this post wasn't too long for you guys.

:P

thank you :hi:

I want the hard results.

We're going to an election night party here in Philadelphia and I'll have my laptop. I hope I've got an internet connection there. Otherwise I'll be nuts.