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Obama holds lead, but will race tighten?

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GinaMaria Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-21-08 04:16 PM
Original message
Obama holds lead, but will race tighten?
Edited on Tue Oct-21-08 04:19 PM by GinaMaria
For the past four weeks, Barack Obama has held a consistent lead over John McCain in the polls. This morning, the Illinois senator is up by 5.9 points on the Yahoo! News dashboard, based on Real Clear Politics poll averages.

Nevertheless, a lot of people in the political world are waiting for Obama's poll lead to shrink. Any movement in the polls could be a sign. An example: his poll average is down about 2 points after leading by 8 points just last week. Headlines began cropping up "Is McCain narrowing the gap?"


snip

With these relatively stable numbers, why is it that many pundits are now asking, even anticipating: When will the lead start to shrink?

Because -- if history is a guide -- it definitely could.

We talked to the Editor in Chief of the Gallup Poll, Frank Newport, who gave us some examples of previous presidential polls that showed a candidate with a significant poll deficit closing drastically in the last weeks of a campaign.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ynews/ynews_pl101#full

This just made my heart skip a beat. I'm having flashbacks to 2000. I hope the Repukes are not priming the way for another theft.
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Whalestoe Donating Member (928 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-21-08 04:17 PM
Response to Original message
1. Chill out.
Obama's lead is EXPANDING this week.
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BlooInBloo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-21-08 04:17 PM
Response to Original message
2. Yes, we're doomed.
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AlCzervik Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-21-08 04:18 PM
Response to Original message
3. his lead will shrink like that 14 point lead he has in the Pew poll?
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Mz Pip Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-21-08 04:19 PM
Response to Original message
4. Then again
it might not!

McCain is running out of weeks here. We are down to under 2.
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styersc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-21-08 04:20 PM
Response to Original message
5. The race will absolutely tighten. We must prepare for a squeaker.
Volunteer, make calls, convince like minded friends to vote. Drive people to the polls. Offer to cover for co-workers who need off to vote for OBAMA!!!! We must all act like this election will be decided by one single vote and work to make sure that we get that voter to the polls. Everyone says the same thing but we must make it a reality!!!!!
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Beetwasher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-21-08 04:21 PM
Response to Original message
6. Lotsa Polls Out Today Showing O Holding Or EXPANDING His Lead
W/ under two weeks to go, we are in terrific shape.
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GinaMaria Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-21-08 04:37 PM
Original message
I'm starting to see a lot saying the opposite
or suggesting a shift will happen. It seems to be hitting the airwaves and print at the same time. like a marketing blitz.
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Stephist Donating Member (557 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-21-08 04:22 PM
Response to Original message
7. Fuck The Damn Polls.
And Look at the map. McCain has one shot to win. PA.
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melody Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-21-08 04:32 PM
Response to Original message
8. We've never had an election like this one. All bets are off.
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-21-08 04:34 PM
Response to Original message
9. The national polls are meaningless


The national polls could tighten three points and it could all be in 'safe states' and Obama could pick up another 50 EVs because he still increased his lead in the battleground states.

If McCain adds another million votes in Texas AZ AK and MS it doesn't mean a thing.

If he loses 100,000 in Indiana it turns into a landslide.

Stop worrying about the national polls


This is a 51 state contest.
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-21-08 04:35 PM
Response to Original message
10. I still think Obama's over/under is 51.5%
I posted that months ago and I'm stubborn so I'll stick with it. Hopefully I'm several points low. The economic news provides not on a boost but more teflon, and the GOP looks asinine relying on the typical fear tactics. I'm not as convinced as I used to be, that the margin will drop to 3-4 points.
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BlooInBloo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-21-08 04:37 PM
Response to Reply #10
12. lol - put your money where your mouth is on intrade, then.
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Compline Donating Member (57 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-21-08 04:37 PM
Response to Original message
11. Sure Mccain can win...
If Obama manages to lose all of the following: Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and New Hampshire. I'm not saying I'm over confident, but I've already chosen the bottle of wine I'll be popping open to celebrate on election night.
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SKKY Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-21-08 04:45 PM
Response to Original message
13. I keep waiting for the race to tighten, but it keep moving toward Obama...
...by increasing percentages.
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