SurveyUSA North Carolina Poll: Obama 47(+2), McCain 47(-1)

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll two weeks ago: McCain is down 2 points, Obama is up 1; Dole is up 1, Hagan is up 3, Libertarian Chris Cole is down 2; McCrory is flat, Perdue is down 2, but Libertarian Mike Munger is up 3. In the presidential race, most demographic sub-groups are stable, but there is movement among the less affluent to Obama and among the more affluent to McCain. In the Senate race, the contest is in single digits in greater Charlotte, Raleigh and Greensboro, with McCain up by double digits only in the less densely populated Southern and Coastal parts of the state. In the Governor contest, McCrory has lost striking ground to the Libertarian Munger among men and among the less affluent.


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http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=73cdcb54-f808-4353-adb7-2fd69b8e66aa

They're consistant outliers and the only major pollster that was calling North Carolina a McCain leaner in the last go-round of polling. SUSA can and should be ignored by serious poll readers.

...if you open the crosstabs, a nice surprise... with what will probably end up being about 10% of the vote already in, Obama leads 6% to 4%.

AA vote... 87/10



They have John McCain winning 10% of the black vote in North Carolina.


Mark my words... if McCain takes 10 percent of the black vote, I will never post here again!


Any state poll where Obama doesn't hit at least 90 percent of the AA vote is not credible.

They seem to be fairly sucky in Southern states and in NC.

Which is good news for Obama. SurveyUSA is using 51% females, 49% males. That's a good sample breakdown in a midterm but not in a presidential year. Presidential years are normally about 54% female, and nigher than that in North Carolina. I think in 2004 is was about 58% female in North Carolina.

Otherwise, some of the criticisms are poor. SurveyUSA has a great track record. And blacks in the South do not vote in the same percentage as the rest of the country. That's what some posters are missing when they are asserting that blacks will put Obama over the top in Southern states via massive turnout. The turnout will be much higher but you won't get 96-4 in those states. A 10% betrayal is very common. According to the 2004 North Carolina exit poll, 14% of blacks voted for Bush. It won't threaten that number this year but it will be above McCain's national percentage among blacks.