Polling 101 And The Bush "Bounce"

I am just back from an Orlando area hotel where I sat out Hurricane Frances with my 86 year old mom....


I got to watch more tv in the past three days than in the past three months....


Of course much of the coverage focused on the hurricane but much was made out of the Bush bounce...


Here's the reason for my post.....

When viewing any poll it is imperative that you know what percentages of independents, Republicans, and Democrats comprise the poll...

If your assumptions about the percentages of Republicans, Democrats, and independents who will be voting is wrong than your whole poll is wrong...

That is why Gallup had such wild swings in Election 00 and Zogby was consistent to the end... Zogby hardly wavered in the percentages of Dems, Indys, and Pugs he expected to show up at the polls


P. S. I expect the polls to tighten once again but we do ourselves no favor by believing the models that show a 99.9 percent of a Kerry victory...


Let's keep working...

Polls should really have no effect on commitment in this race. If we slack off whenever a poll shows Kerry up we're toast (remember, those are the polls that motivate the OTHER side)

I would love nothing more than a Kerry landslide and the feeling I worked TOO hard and donated TOO much money to the campaign...

You are measuring emotion more than commitment...


In any case those polls woke people up which is a good thing...