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It hurts the Republicans more if the narrative is that Obama will win in a landslide.

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Drunken Irishman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-23-08 10:53 PM
Original message
It hurts the Republicans more if the narrative is that Obama will win in a landslide.
Edited on Thu Oct-23-08 10:55 PM by Drunken Irishman
Don't let anyone tell you otherwise. If the storyline is set that Obama is going to walk to victory, you're going to see low turnout by Republicans, since they lack enthusiasm anyway. I know, complacency and I agree, Obama supporters shouldn't get complacent. But these people aren't going to not vote because Obama is up 10. They're going to still vote because of how historical this race is and how energized the Democrats are.

Remember, the landslide talk in 1984 didn't hurt Reagan, in fact, it helped him, as polls did not indicate he would win by as big of a margin as he actually did. No one thought going into election night Reagan would carry nearly every state.

The best thing we have going for us right now is that the Republicans are nearly to the point of giving up and if that's the case, I don't see why their supporters would all come to vote, while Obama voters stayed home thinking victory was guaranteed. At least at a number large enough to change this election.

But I agree, Obama supporters need to get out the vote. However, I do not believe being told this race is in the bag is going to change that. We'll vote. We'll vote a lot and maybe we'll win like Reagan in 1984.
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Clio the Leo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-23-08 10:55 PM
Response to Original message
1. Very valid point, McCain supporters are not motivated the way that....
... Hillary supporters were in New Hampshire.
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CaliforniaPeggy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-23-08 10:56 PM
Response to Original message
2. I like how you think!
I see it happening this way too...
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melody Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-23-08 11:01 PM
Response to Original message
3. I agree 100%
The air of inevitability won't damped the enthusiasm of most voters for Obama but since most McCain supporters are lukewarm about him at best, they are much more likely to stay home if they sense the inevitability of an Obama win.
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Drunken Irishman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-23-08 11:02 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. Right.
We want to vote! We're going to vote regardless of what the polls say. This is our moment! You better believe we won't become complacent if the polls show him up 7-10 points on election day.

McCain supporters, though, they may feel it's a lost cause and may just sit it out.

I mean, Democrats did in 1984 and 1988.
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Historic NY Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-23-08 11:04 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. me too...the GOTV must continue for Dems. we must overwhelm
by numbers unseen in years for our candidate
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DrToast Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-23-08 11:04 PM
Response to Original message
5. Good point. Republican apathy is a much bigger problem than Dem complacency
People WANT to be able to say they voted for Obama. It's a historic election. Even if it's expected to be a blowout, Dem turnout will still be high.
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unpossibles Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-23-08 11:52 PM
Response to Original message
7. agree for three reasons
1 - the chickens are coming home to roost! They've been told for years that McCain is a liberal and even longer that "government is evil" and "they're all the same" as a last dodge excuse when one of them gets busted doing something. Result: GOP supporters becoming more apathetic or voting third party, which is even better.

2 - Conservatives are followers, not leaders! I would bet $5 that at least some number of them will change their minds and vote for Obama if they think he is going to win in a landslide. They want to be able to say they "won" I just know it. Come on; we all know the type.

3 - I think for the ones with some common sense and intelligence, they really are having second thoughts about Palin. Do they really want her in the White House? Whether it's from old fashioned misogyny (which I bet will hurt them a little) or just last second guilt, or even relatives and friends badgering them, some will flip at the last second I think. I know very few who are out and loud proud McCain/Palin supporters, and those who are are impossible to win over anyway, as they tend to be basing their arguments on blind ideology and bad reasoning (he's a Muslim Marxist Christian!!1!).

Most importantly, we need to win by a margin so large they cannot steal it, or even claim we stole it, although you know they will do just that. I expect every single person who screamed "GET OVER IT!" and "SORE LOSERMAN!" to be the first ones whining.
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FLyellowdog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-24-08 01:07 AM
Response to Original message
8. Repubs are clearly moving toward giving up.
We'd probably feel the same way if it looked this bleak for us. But we won't slow down just because the numbers are looking good for us. A landslide will send a clear message to America that the REAL Americans are taking back our country.:patriot:
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