* Still (Barely) Close Enough To Steal *

The following numbers and estimates came from pollster.com. For purposes of this analysis, I've made the assumption that in any battleground state in which the trend is toward a margin of less than 8 points for the Democratic candidate, there's a possibility of it being stolen by McCain. This is based on their continuing disenfranchisement of Democratic voters and their control of the highly suspect electronic voting machines and the MSM. I've finally decided that PA was a ruse and with the failure of the latest "mugging" news story, it's unlikely that PA can be stolen.

Positive poll numbers reflect Obama advantage; Negative poll numbers reflect McCain advantage.



Note, however, that Virginia is just barely in the category of "not too close to be stolen". There's still time for McCain to bring it close enough to steal. And since McCain hasn't held a lead in NM since early March, I'm actually more confident in that state than Virginia. Clearly the Repugs have not given up on VA, it's essential and would allow them to lose NM and two other states (NV plus ND or MT; or NH plus ND or MT.)

The good news, of course, is that Obama only needs to maintain all the states on his side plus New Mexico. He doesn't even need to win ANY of the yellow states.

Or, Obama could lose VA but win NM and CO which would put him at 269 EV (a tie). If he also wins 1 EV in Nebraska this would avoid the spectacle of the House of Representatives intervening in the election.

These are, of course, pessimistic estimates and there's a good chance that Obama will win well over 300 EV, taking many of the "yellow" battleground states. But I'm not an optimist by nature so I'll continue to look at worst case scenarios.

Our long national nightmare is nearly over, but now is not the time to celebrate. It's still within stealing range, and I expect the McCain camp to switch from PA to VA within the next day or so.

judging by all the shenanigans going on with early voting, purging, finding McCain paid a fraudster etc

I felt pretty good when I dropped my ballot in yesterday. Which surprised me since I'm such a pessimist. I felt calm and confident, instead of anxious like in 2004.

Still, ya can't be too cautious these days with everything that's been going on.

We will win.

:eyes:

Keep it up, OP. I think it's clear Obama will win a fraud-free election. The single biggest issue to all of us is, or should be, election integrity.

Hosting karaoke? Granted, it'a part time with no benefits, but at least I can drink on the job!

:P

One of the three might suffer as a result. :hi:

hell, just about the only time I'm not thinking about the election these days is when I'm hosting. But I'm one of those gloomy Democrats who thinks that something is just bound to go wrong. It's like watching sports teams in my area (Seattle).

That just took 35% of your worry away.