What was up with Chuck Todd saying that the "real" poll numbers in PA are less than 10 points?

He said this on Countdown last night. He said that all of the polls that have come out saying Obama is winning by double digits are wrong.

Three of the last 14 polls have shown Obama winning by double digits, and 5 of 6 in the last three days.

Is this just Chuck Todd trying to keep it close, or does he know something we don't?

First or last name.

You betcha! :silly:

You know, just like the ones that lost them the House in '06.

Duck Wad is blowing smoke. He got nuthin'.

Like everyone else in the MSM, Todd has a vested interest in portraying this as a close race, but in his defense, I think he honestly is having trouble believing some of these polls. Double digit leads for a Democrat in states like PA and OH just don't square with recent history.

Why can't Obama outperform "recent history"? Have you been paying attention these past eight years? People are energized and pissed. I voted in a red state yesterday, and it was like going to a three hour Obama rally. And, it was cold, wet, and windy.

And, aren't these polling agencies worried about their reputations? It seems hard to believe that I should trust C. Todd because of how he feels, and not the companies that do this for a living.

I don't buy the PA polls. I think Obama's up, but not buying double digits for a second.

Why should we believe someones gut rather than the actual polls? Aren't we starting to sound like freepers when we ignore things that don't agree with what we want or expect?

I'm not concerned, I feel good about Obama's chances on Nov. 4th both here in PA and in the country at-large, but I don't believe that Obama will win PA by double digits, nor do I believe he would win by double digits if the election were held today. I'd love to be wrong.

which has 255 STRONG obama EV's for Obama, 51 lean!

:rofl:

It'll likely be closer than double-digits, which doesn't matter as winner takes all - and I'm fairly certain it'll be Obama.

Why? Are you guys really that skeptical?

We can't realistically expect Obama to win it by 14 points. Bill Clinton barely got 50% there.

Sorry. I'll stick with the polls. You're gut feeling, which is based on how things went 12 years ago, I'll leave to you. And, it seems like you think Clinton could do better than Obama - hmmm.

Again, I expect Obama to win there big. But not by Double Digits. 7 or 8 points

Is that like "real Virginia" or "real Americans"?

The latest polls, as reported by realclearpolitics.com:

Poll Date Sample MoE Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread

RCP Average 10/16 - 10/23 -- -- 51.5 40.5....Obama +11.0

Morning Call 10/19 - 10/23 608 LV 4.0 52 40..Obama +12
SurveyUSA 10/21 - 10/22 620 LV 4.0 53 41.....Obama +12
Big10 Battleground 10/19 - 10/22 566 LV 4.2 52 41..Obama +11
Quinnipiac 10/16 - 10/21 1425 LV 2.6 53 40...Obama +13
National Journal/FD 10/16 - 10/20 412 RV 4.9 51 41..Obama +10
Susquehanna 10/16 - 10/18 700 LV 3.7 48 40...Obama +8

Even the lowest poll has Obama up by 8. Granted, there is a margin of error. And the race may tighten, too. So he may win only by a couple of points, but big deal. I'm sure McCain would trade places to get those numbers!

Sorry, I don't remember where I heard that, so I can't quote a source -- but I'm pretty sure it was MSNBC. They claimed it had Obama ahead by only two points. I think that was a couple days ago, though.

He said that? Ok..strange.

If he's a republican, whatever, but, if it's not true, why would some one say it on air?

I think the states we need to win, PA and CO, are a lot closer than these polls. And IN, VA, MO, I'm not counting on them at all. I hope people vote and don't lose sight of how much work it takes to get that vote out.