Who are these Undecideds? Could they be the embodiment of the 'Bradley Effect'?

I am worried about something. In every poll where Obama has a 7 or 8 point lead (PA comes to mind), there seems to be an 'Undecided' vote of about 7% to 9%. I keep hearing that those Undecideds may indeed be whites who may not like McCoward but cannot bring themselves to vote for a black man. The pundits are suggesting that these 'Undecideds' are really the racists who will break for McShame at the last minute.

One or two things are at play here:

1. The punditry is using the 'Undecideds' to help steal a close election as a buffer.
2. The 'Undecideds' could split 50-50, with 1/2 going to Obama and the other 1/2 for McShame.

I haven't figured out yet in my mind what could be going on here, but I am very worried about this group of voters. I think they may be the racists who will break for McShame. If so, I wonder how that will impact the battleground states like VA.

to be members of one or more of these four groups: independents; females; senior citizens; and/or conservative democrats. In the period between the first presidential debate and now, the "undecideds" have moved towards Obama at an approximate 2 to 1 ratio. The remaining "undecideds" can certainly be a factor, although recent history suggests those who remain undecided at this point tend to support the candidate with the lead.

we have Obama, as you are aware, Obama is black. as you are also aware, some people don't like that he is black, but black is part of the package that Obama brings.

now, John Kerry was white, nobody voted against him because he was white, he had that advantage, but he didn't have Obama's advantage in money, organizational ability, oratory, concise and effective communication of the issues and so forth.

Obama's race is a disadvantage among racists, but what we got in this deal was a candidate whose strengths have brought us and our party more votes than we would have gotten with any other white candidate that ran.

think about that.

and think about how Douglas Wilder won the Virginia governorship in the 1980's!!! Virginia! Yes, that place, 20+ years ago.

and quit bringing us down. this is not constructive.

do something about this if you have a concern, phone bank, volunteer, canvas. Obama needs people to call folks in Pennsylvania --help!

my ass off in VA. I live in MD and drive back and forth to all parts of VA. I have spoken to voters of all stripes throughout that state. And yes, I have spoken directly to these Undecided voters and I think that my fears are legitimate. I don't need to be lectured by you. If you cannot offer anything constructive, don't offer anything at all.

I really don't. There may be people who are just not voting, because they can't vote for either, but I don't think anyone is undecided. Sorry. Don't buy it. I don't buy the bradley effect either.

in the primaries, 13% of white PA voters said race was a factor in their vote.

this is the dirty little secret that's been forgotten in this process. it's also why it's been so important to downplay race.

i believe that race certainly IS a huge factor in the "undecided" category. i think it's mostly whites who would vote obama if not for all the "rumors" and "questions about his past" stuff. many of those white DEMOCRATS in the PA primary got on camera and talked about their concern with him being muslim, etc.

I think it's been along time since the primaries, but i think we sometimes underestimate the subconscious stuff that drives the fears and rumors. I think there are a lot of people who subconsciously want reasons not to vote for him.

As for the Bradley effect...

I think we're mostly going to see the OPPOSITE on election day. I think many of the people who are undecided or anti-Obama will in fact vote for him when the moment comes. Certainly if there are those who do the opposite, it's my belief it will be a much smaller population... compared to those who swing to him at the last minute... and compared to the massive turn-out obama will have.

are likely mostly disgruntled republicans or republican leaning independents at this point, because most of the others are fully decided already and have been so for a while now.
b

:sarcasm:

:rofl:

then you'd understand precisely what I'm talking about. Again, if you cannot offer anything constructive, then don't even respond. Why waste your time responding to a 'concerned' individual like myself? Just to be a smart-ass? What's the point? Why even respond?

and still others who don't appear to be undecided; they simply don't want to reveal who they are supporting. Either they are ashamed to admit that they'll be voting for McShame; or, they are ashamed to admit their racists. I spoken to these people in Deep Southern Virginia. They do exist.

Amazing, since she's already voted. If you ask, she's "undecided." What's really going on is that she's voted for Obama but is married to a bigot who throws a temper tantrum every time Obama is brought up. She voted for Obama but isn't going to talk about it.

The one true undecided that I came across was hung up on abortions. Definitely anti-McCain, but concerned about abortions.

I pitched her the old "Democratic party policies actually lead to fewer abortions" line (which on later research I was slightly uncomfortable with) and she was easily swayed and agreeing with me by the end of the call. But I suspect that whoever gets the last crack at her (like her priest) will probably control the vote.

Whatever Obama loses to "Bradley effect" he makes up in participation and enthusiasm in places like NC and GA.

"Undecideds" may end up going to McCain because they're prejudiced, but they're NOT people who falsely SAY they're going to vote for Obama but then don't. As long as Obama is at 50%, he'll be ok. Even if he's at 48-49%, depending on the number of undecideds, he'd probably get at least enough of them to give him the win (if there are enough of them) IMO.

obviously seriously FUCKED UP.

There were 7% undecideds in just about every Presidential election the past 20 years.

In those years, you didn't attribute them all to the other side... why now?


If it is because Obama is black.... then you are exhibiting the same stereotypical racist feelings that we accuse the right of.


The 7% undecided this year are no different than the 7% undecided in ANY year.

...and that's why the pulled it off.

R's went after absentee's, there's no such thing as a 'bradley' effect and no empirical data showing a repetition of it...MsM racial meme for ratings