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McCain/Palin support keeps dropping!! = TPM Track = Six Poll Composite

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L. Coyote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 08:54 AM
Original message
McCain/Palin support keeps dropping!! = TPM Track = Six Poll Composite
Edited on Sun Oct-26-08 09:00 AM by L. Coyote
"Obama is ahead 51.6%-42.8%" Wahooooo

McCain is dropping from 43.1% to 42.8%, slip sliding away .....

==================
TPM Track Composite: Obama's Big Lead Inches Up Yet Again
By Eric Kleefeld - October 25, 2008, 5:03PM

Here's our daily composite of the six major national tracking polls. Barack Obama already-solid national lead may be inching up even further:

• Gallup: Obama 51%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-45% Obama lead yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 52%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-45% Obama lead from yesterday.

• ABC/Washington Post: Obama 53%, McCain 44%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 43%, with a ±3.3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 40%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Zogby: Obama 51%, McCain 42%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 51%-41% Obama lead yesterday.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 51.6%-42.8%, a lead of 8.8 points, compared to the 51.6%-43.1% Obama lead from yesterday.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/tpm_track_composite_obamas_lea_5.php
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Ozma Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 08:56 AM
Response to Original message
1. Thanks for doing the math! n/t
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BzaDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 08:57 AM
Response to Original message
2. For us not math-inclined, why are the polls weighted by the square root of their sample sizes?
Why not just their sample sizes?
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L. Coyote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 09:00 AM
Response to Reply #2
5. conforms to margin-of-error shift
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Jackpine Radical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 09:04 AM
Response to Reply #2
7. Because reliability is a function of sqrt(n)--if that helps.
Or, more precisely, the standard error of a proportion is the square root of the product of the 2 proportions (e.g. .55, .45) divided by the sample size. In computer-style formula writing, SE=sqrt((p*1-p)/n).
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 09:50 AM
Response to Reply #2
12. A poll of 900 is better than a poll of 450, but not twice as good
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Laura PourMeADrink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 08:57 AM
Response to Original message
3. do you mean dropping from 43.1 to 42.8?
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L. Coyote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 09:01 AM
Response to Reply #3
6. Copy and Paste hazard corrected. Thanks.
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L. Coyote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 08:58 AM
Response to Original message
4. dKOS Trendlines: Obama 51 to McCain 40
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fascisthunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 09:08 AM
Response to Original message
8. America doesn't seem to be fooledd by these liars
only the mentally handicapped dittohead populace seems to accept their BS. Gee, what a surprise...
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Laura PourMeADrink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 09:23 AM
Response to Reply #8
9. There were times over the years when I never thought it would happen - that
the populace would ever "get it". It takes time for CW to come around, doesn't it. Guess
the first clue was probably that they finally figured out that Bush was bad 75%
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fascisthunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 09:34 AM
Response to Reply #9
10. That Bush was Bad and McCain Who Voted along with Bush 95% of the Time
is probably worse... since he's a suck up follower to the religious right. My how some change stripes for power... desperate and phony.
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L. Coyote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 10:40 AM
Response to Reply #10
14. and then came Palin
July 2008: Palin on Ted Stevens: "we can help lead the rest of the U.S."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YptTFDsktVQ
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fascisthunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 03:35 PM
Response to Reply #14
15. ooops.... Looks Like Palin and Senator Stevens were close
they go back a ways.... as Senator Stevens intimated, while Palin unabashedly concurred.
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lonestarnot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 09:47 AM
Response to Original message
11. Woohoo!
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L. Coyote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 10:14 AM
Response to Reply #11
13. No McWahoo
wahoo is Lakota for shrub (little bush) :rofl:
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