Arizona - in a virtual tie?

I live in Az, and I'm not holding my breath - but me thinks it's time for Obama or Biden to come pay us a visit.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14942.html
Could McCain lose his home state?
By MIKE ALLEN | 10/25/08 10:49 PM EDT



The Dems' Project New West has its sights set on Arizona and they say McCain's lead is down to a slim 4 points.






Democrats are circulating a poll showing Sen. John McCain losing ground in his home state of Arizona, an ominous sign for his beleaguered campaign as state after state turns blue.

Project New West, which aims to build the Democratic Party in the Intermountain West, says the Republican leads Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) in the Grand Canyon State, 48 percent to 44 percent.

The pollsters call that a “dramatic shift” from a survey they took in mid-September, which had McCain ahead by 14 points, 54 percent to 40 percent.

“Bad News for McCain: Presidential Contest in Arizona has Closed in Arizona And McCain Now Leads By Just 4 Points,” says a memo from pollsters Andrew Myers of Myers Research and Strategic Services and Lisa Grove of Grove Research.

The poll of 600 likely Arizona voters was taken Thursday and Friday, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

McCain has represented Arizona in the House or Senate since 1982.

In 2000, President Bush won Arizona by 6 percentage points. In 2004, he widened that to 11 percentage points.

Most polling has showed McCain winning his home state easily. The Real Clear Politics average of Arizona polls gives McCain an 11.3-point advantage over Obama.

The McCain campaign did not respond to requests for comment.

I/m not sure about my town of Sierra Vista, although I have seen a lot of Obama bumper stickers lately. A visit by our guys might swing this state.

I am not seeing all that many McCain supporters either. I think that is an indication that the enthusiasm level for the Republicans is not very high. It would be sweet to carry AZ for Obama, but it is a long shot.

it will be quite close and that will be a real shock to McSame! He's had problems with many repubs in AZ for years now, as told by the heads of county repub parties themselves, throwing his weight around, displaying petty vindictiveness and unwarranted tempers, etc. He's not as popular there as he still thinks he is. He'll still likely win, but it won't be by much, frankly.

Just like my own state of SD. I'm pretty sure McSame will still win here, but it will be much, much closer than you'd think, closer than in other recent prez races.

is in 2004 there were Bush/Cheney stickers and signs everywhere.
My neighborhood was full of them. I was constantly grumpy.

Now - I have seen only one sign - at the entrance of Sun Lakes.
And very few bumperstickers. I have seen more Obama stickers tho.

Like I said, I won't hold my breath, but I do think that if Obama or Biden campaigned in Phoenix, they just might be surprised how many people show up.

I'm in the far east valley. I see very few signs or bumper stickers for either presidential candidate, but the few I *do* see are Obama over McCain by about 4 to 1.

I'm talking the Gold Canyon, Apache Junction, East Mesa corridor.

It's seriously much higher for Obama/Biden. Surprisingly so.

I've seen quite a few Obama stickers here!

get back to his home state.

then this state would be in play, and that bodes well for Dems in 2012 and beyond.

.....our own home town right wing rag gave a glowing endorsement to McPutz today. This means the low information voter, the schmucks in this state will believe the gospel of the repulsive and McPutz will take the state. BTW, Arizona ranks 49th in education funding. Any wonder.

The Arizona 'Republican' is what I call them.

"BTW, Arizona ranks 49th in education funding. Any wonder."

Yes, people move here for low property taxes, not realizing that those taxes pay for schools.

They are either retirees, so it's not their kids getting a bad education, or they simply don't know or care.

I've met a large number of people who were "educated" in Phoenix-area public schools. Unfortunately they missed out on a great deal of basic information, and since they never went to better schools, they get overly defensive if the subject is brought up.

Sadly the only informed Arizonans I meet went to Brophy - a Catholic school.

There are lots of LIVs here. It's really sad.

Voters in Arizona are watching the huge crowds in Colorado and probably asking 'why not us?'

Not every election is about winning a particular race, but setting the foundation to win in the future. That could be the case here if Obama or Biden pays a visit now.

The last poll out of AZ was over a month ago. "Most polling" doesn't exist for Arizona.

The dream scenario for me would be winning Arizona and Texas!