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Let's predict the Election Results here (Popular Vote, Electoral Vote, State Results)

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Colobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 06:44 PM
Original message
Let's predict the Election Results here (Popular Vote, Electoral Vote, State Results)
Edited on Sun Oct-26-08 06:50 PM by Katzenkavalier
Let's do it and we will kick this thread up on Election Day who see who was right and who wasn't. My predictions are:

Popular Vote: Obama 51.1%, McCain 46.9%, Others 2%

Electoral Votes: Obama- 344 , McCain- 194

States won by Obama:
Florida
North Carolina
Viriginia
Maryland
D.C.
Delaware
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
New York
Connecticut
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
Maine
Indiana
Michigan
Illinois
Wisconsin
Iowa
Minnesota
New Mexico
Colorado
Nevada
California
Oregon
Washington
Hawaii

States won by McCain:
Alaska
Idaho
Montana
North Dakota
South Dakota
Wyoming
Nebraska
Utah
Arizona
Kansas
Oklahoma
Texas
Missouri
Ohio
Arkansas
Louisiana
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
Tennessee
Kentucky
West Virginia
South Carolina

Observations: Based on my predictions, McCain can technically grab Florida, PA and Virginia away from Obama and the latter would still win in the electoral college 283 to 255. In other words, Obama is the big favorite to win... and most probably he will. GOBAMA! :bounce:
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Colobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 06:47 PM
Response to Original message
1. Come in and make your predictions,
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scheming daemons Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 06:48 PM
Response to Original message
2. You left 31 electoral votes unaccounted for. There are 538 total.
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Colobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 06:51 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. Sorry, McCain 194
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Colobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 06:53 PM
Response to Original message
4. Kick.
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brazos121200 Donating Member (626 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 06:53 PM
Response to Original message
5. My prediction: Obama 53.6% of the vote, McBush 44.9%, all
others 1.5%. Obama will get 349 electoral votes to McBush's 189.
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Colobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 06:55 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. What state are you giving Obama that I didn't?
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brazos121200 Donating Member (626 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 07:00 PM
Response to Reply #6
12. I gave mccain North Carolina, and Obama Ohio.
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Colobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 07:23 PM
Response to Reply #12
20. Interesting.
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 06:56 PM
Response to Original message
7. My guess: Obama 53% to McCain 45%.
Alaska: McCain 56% Obama 41%
Alabama: McCain 57% Obama 40%
Arizona: McCain 54% Obama 45%
Arkansas: McCain 55% Obama 44%
California: Obama 57% McCain 42%
Colorado: Obama 53% McCain 46%
Connecticut: Obama 58% McCain 40%
Delaware: Obama 59% McCain 40%
D.C.: Obama 92% McCain 6%
Florida: Obama 50% McCain 48%
Georgia: McCain 52% Obama 47%
Hawaii: Obama 60% McCain 39%
Idaho: McCain 61% Obama 37%
Illinois: Obama 59% McCain 39%
Indiana: McCain 50% Obama 49%
Iowa: Obama 54% McCain 44%
Kansas: McCain 56% Obama 42%
Kentucky: McCain 54% Obama 44%
Louisiana: McCain 56% Obama 42%
Maine: Obama 56% McCain 41%
Maryland: Obama 60% McCain 39%
Massachusetts: Obama 64% McCain 34%
Michigan: Obama 55% McCain 44%
Minnesota: Obama 56% McCain 42%
Mississippi: McCain 54% Obama 45%
Missouri: Obama 51% McCain 48%
Montana: McCain 53% Obama 46%
Nebraska: McCain 58% Obama 40%
Nevada: Obama 52% McCain 47%
New Hampshire: Obama 54% McCain 45%
New Jersey: Obama 57% McCain 42%
New York: Obama 62% McCain 36%
North Carolina: Obama 50% McCain 49%
North Dakota: Obama 50% McCain 49%
Ohio: Obama 51% McCain 48%
Oklahoma: McCain 61% Obama 38%
Oregon: Obama 55% McCain 43%
Pennsylvania: Obama 54% McCain 44%
Rhode Island: Obama 62% McCain 36%
South Carolina: McCain 55% Obama 44%
South Dakota: McCain 54% Obama 45%
Tennessee: McCain 56% Obama 42%
Texas: McCain 54% Obama 44%
Utah: McCain 63% Obama 35%
Vermont: Obama 64% McCain 33%
Virginia: Obama 52% McCain 47%
Washington: Obama 55% McCain 43%
West Virginia: McCain 53% Obama 45%
Wisconsin: Obama 55% McCain 43%
Wyoming: McCain 60% Obama 39%

I think that works out about right in terms of popular vote overall. I didn't weight the results exactly, but I think that's about right.
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blue_onyx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 06:56 PM
Response to Original message
8. Obama will win by...
Obama 56% to McCain 44%

Obama 396 to McCain 142

States won by Obama:
Florida
North Carolina
Virginia
Maryland
D.C.
Delaware
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
New York
Connecticut
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
Maine
Indiana
Michigan
Illinois
Wisconsin
Iowa
Minnesota
New Mexico
Colorado
Nevada
California
Oregon
Washington
Hawaii
Ohio
Georgia
Montana
North Dakota
Missouri
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Liberal_in_LA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 06:56 PM
Response to Original message
9. Obama 51%, Electoral votes = 350.
Edited on Sun Oct-26-08 06:57 PM by Liberal_in_LA
I'm too lazy to list all the states.
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 06:57 PM
Response to Original message
10. Pop Vote: Obama 52.5%, McCain 44.1%, Other 3.4%. EV: Obama 381, McCain 157
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S_E_Fudd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 06:57 PM
Response to Original message
11. My superstitious nature won't allow it...
Sorry
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Colobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 07:01 PM
Response to Reply #11
13. Give it a shot!
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S_E_Fudd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 07:07 PM
Response to Reply #13
19. Ok...if you don't mind me jinxing it...
Obama wins

HI
WA
OR
CA
CO
NM
NV
MN
IA
MO
IL
WI
IN
MI
OH
ME
NH
VT
MA
RI
CT
NJ
NY
DE
MD
VA
NC
FL
DC
PA

Total 375

McCain the rest for 163

Possible switches GA, ND, MT, AZ to Obama

My mega-upset special: TX to Obama


Course I could be waaaay off base and McCain wins...
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IsItJustMe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 07:04 PM
Response to Reply #11
16. Know what you mean. What is that phrase, knock on wood and never count your chickens.
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saltpoint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 07:01 PM
Response to Original message
14. Obama holds all of John Kerry's states and adds
Colorado
Virginia
Nevada
New Mexico and
Iowa

--and will carry half or more of

North Carolina
Missouri
Florida and
Indiana

--with a remote chance in

Montana
North Dakota
West Virginia and
Arizona.

Obama with 52.3% of the popular vote.

Democratic House seats: +24
Democratic Senate seats: +7
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IsItJustMe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 07:02 PM
Response to Original message
15. Florida and Indiana are to close to call, me thinks.
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Colobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 07:04 PM
Response to Original message
17. Obama can even lose Indiana along FLA, PA, and VA and still win with 272 EVs.
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iceman66 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 07:06 PM
Response to Original message
18. Obama will win handily but we will NOT get 60 votes in the Senate
even though we SHOULD thanks to the "Diebold effect".

Our opponents have already proven they can steal elections. It does not seem like the polls will be close enough for them to credibly steal it for McCain, but this is not so in the down-ticket races.
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FlyingSquirrel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 07:43 PM
Response to Original message
21. 368-170, popular vote 52.1% - 46.1% - 1.8%
368:

D.C.
Hawaii
Vermont
Rhode Island
Maryland
New York
Massachusetts
Illinois
Delaware
California
Connecticut
Iowa
Oregon
Washington
Maine
New Jersey
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Minnesota

Virginia
Colorado
New Mexico
New Hampshire

Ohio
Nevada
North Carolina
Florida
Missouri
Nebraska (1)
North Dakota

Razor-thin margins for those last five but I'm gonna call 'em anyway. Other than that, possible upsets in MT and IN would make it 371, 379 or 382.
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