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Here is what it comes down to Election Night, Electoral Vote wise.........

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KansasVoter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 06:58 PM
Original message
Here is what it comes down to Election Night, Electoral Vote wise.........
Edited on Sun Oct-26-08 07:00 PM by KansasVoter
We need 42 Electoral Votes from this group of states:

State-Evs
FL = 27
IN = 11
VA = 13
OH = 20
NH = 4
MO = 11
PA = 21
NC = 15
CO = 9
NM = 5
IA = 7
NV = 5

We right now are 7 or more points ahead in the poll averages in the following states:

VA, NH, PA, MN, IA which equals 50 Electoral Votes which gives us 277 EVs

If you drop the poll threshhold to 5 points or above, we win the following states:

VA, OH, NH, PA, CO, NM, IA which equal 79 Electoral Votes which gives us 306 EVs

Looking good if the states stay strong for Obama!
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liberal N proud Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 07:01 PM
Response to Original message
1. Iowa is going blue
That leave 35. If he can take Ohio and Pennsylvania that would be 41.
I am working all next week through the election trying to make sure Ohio goes blue.
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KansasVoter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 07:06 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Thank you for working! I am working the MO side since kansas is a back ass state!
Edited on Sun Oct-26-08 07:06 PM by KansasVoter
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liberal N proud Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 07:11 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. We lived in Missouri until a few years ago.
Edited on Sun Oct-26-08 07:33 PM by liberal N proud
Visited last weekend, looks like at least that part of the state is strong Obama. We were there for Homecoming at the university.
The parade had every candidate local, state and Presidential represented except McCain/Palin. There was a College Republican entry into the parade but they had nothing for McCain. The college Democratic organizations entry on the other hand was passing out Obama buttons and bumper stickers all up and down the crowd lined on the streets. It was great.

9 more hard long days of knocking on doors and counting the contacts. I think that everything past Wednesday is GOTV for which I am an organizer. Should be intense
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Gregorian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 07:18 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. That's really impressive.
I have not had the courage to face the voters. Perhaps one day. I'm also under a bit of duress without amenities right now. Like electricity. But that's no excuse.

I think there ought to be a huge parade for people all around this country to celebrate those who helped out in the election.
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 07:19 PM
Response to Original message
5. It's really as simple as this: Obama is winning NH, CO, PA, IA, and NM for sure.
That's it right there. Done. The rest is gravy.
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Dawgs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 07:24 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. Exactly. Since the Palin bump Obama has led in every poll in every one of those states.
Edited on Sun Oct-26-08 07:25 PM by Dawgs
No reason to think that the polls can be that wrong. This thing is over.
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KansasVoter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 07:26 PM
Response to Reply #5
8. I agree, but CO being so red worries me.
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 10:37 PM
Response to Reply #8
13. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
Blondiegrrl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 10:56 PM
Response to Reply #5
14. That's my thinking too. Up until recently, I was a little unsure about CO,
but Obama's lead seems to be increasing and/or stabilizing there, so I'm feeling a lot better about it.

In addition to those states, I think he will most likely win VA as well. That's my conservative estimate. He'll probably do better than that and snag a few more tossup states.
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elizm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 07:25 PM
Response to Original message
7. If Obama just adds VA and Iowa to Kerry's map he is at 272.
He doesn't even need Ohio, CO, NM...although the tsunami would be a breathtaking sight to behold... and I may die from the sheer happiness!
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KansasVoter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 07:28 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. Ohio is plus 6 now. Looks good.
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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 07:39 PM
Response to Original message
10. Thanks for this post! It makes it all very clear. Bookmarking! nt
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democraticinsurgent Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 07:43 PM
Response to Original message
11. We may know all we need to know by 7pm
...if Indiana and Virginia go blue, it is likely over. Not mathematically but plausibly. Not many scenarios exist where McCain can win without those two states.
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KansasVoter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 07:57 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. Indiana is even now. It will be tough to win it. But if we win it and VA it is over.
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Stagecoach Donating Member (468 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-26-08 10:58 PM
Response to Reply #11
15. The thing is
They won't call either of those states as soon as they close. It'll take a few hours for those to be declared.
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