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Obama's "Strong Dem" EV's declined overnight at electoral-vote

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Terran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 09:03 AM
Original message
Obama's "Strong Dem" EV's declined overnight at electoral-vote
I've been checking electoral-vote.com obsessively every day and noticed that today's "Strong Dem" states are totalling 254, down ten from yesterday. Feeling panic swelling in my heart, I'm scanning for what changed, but not to worry: it looks like Wisconsin declined by 1%, knocking it into the "Weak Dem" category, but the site still shows a 9% lead overall there. Whew!

I kind of like the fact they peg states where he has such big leads as "weak" for him...sort of keeps one grounded! :crazy:
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Bicoastal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 09:04 AM
Response to Original message
1. You forgot to mention that MO and IN are blue again--
--THAT'S big news.
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Terran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 09:47 AM
Response to Reply #1
12. It is indeed.
I was just focusing on the stability of those reliable "stong dem" states. We have enough to worry about without worrying about any of them too!
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donco6 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 09:05 AM
Response to Original message
2. Slate's Poll Tracker has 272 safe, 39 leaning for Obama.
85 tossups and 123 safe for Mccain with 19 leaning.
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NRaleighLiberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 09:06 AM
Response to Original message
3. It is a good site, but a day behind. RCP is a better resource for up to the minute info.
www.realclearpolitics.com

Then at night, go to fivethirtyeight.com for good analysis of the day's polls.

Does make it hard to sleep, though, after obsessing about the numbers for hours!
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Xipe Totec Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 09:06 AM
Response to Original message
4. I'm really worried about D.C. - Obama support only 82%
Compared to 90% for John Kerry in 2004.

:scared:
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O.M.B.inOhio Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 09:08 AM
Response to Original message
5. I love NPR's electoral college tool (link). And can you believe ND and MT?
http://www.npr.org/news/specials/election2008/2008-election-map.html#/president-nprOvM/
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NRaleighLiberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 09:14 AM
Response to Reply #5
8. Yes, nice tool. I fiddled with it, and my conclusion - Obama with 364 EV at the end.
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O.M.B.inOhio Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 09:20 AM
Response to Reply #8
11. And even if you give all the tossups to McCrook, plus CO (due to SOS Coffman), Obama still gets 282.
Fire up the paper shredders at the White House now!
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The Stranger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 09:12 AM
Response to Original message
6. Pennsylvania just shifted from SOLID OBAMA to LEANING OBAMA.
Is everyone still counting their chickens?
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Essene Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 09:14 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. the only thing to worry about right now is voter turn-out
the rest is noise.
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WhollyHeretic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 09:16 AM
Response to Reply #6
9. Where? Electoral-vote.com still has it strong Obama
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Terran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 09:48 AM
Response to Reply #9
13. Yeah, 12 point lead in PA
I'd say that's pretty solid!
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The Stranger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 10:25 AM
Response to Reply #9
15. Here:
10/30 Pennsylvania Solid Obama »»» Leaning Obama Obama 311 - McCain 142 Obama +6.3


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5
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high density Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 09:17 AM
Response to Original message
10. Doesn't E-V.com just consider the most recent poll released for a state?
I prefer the methodology of the other sites, like fivethirtyeight.com, that take multiple recent polls into account.
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Terran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 09:57 AM
Response to Reply #10
14. No, I think the site averages multiple polls when available
For instance, the note on PA says: Source: more than ten polls (Oct. 27). Wisconsin looks like two polls are being used.
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