Right now, Kerry is doing BETTER than GORE ( latest state polls).

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

This is good news, just as Kerry is starting to come back after his two-week slide and is finally kicking AWOL's butt.

OH, TN, WV are three states important where the latest Zogby polls have Kerry trailing by 9-11%. These must be swift-boat anomalies. Expect Kerry to come right back in each of them as Bush's desertion and coke sniffing become household topics.

Below are the state by state comparisons. Note that the percentages are 2-party only. Nader et al are excluded. We know who gets the Nader vote.

The calculations are:
Gore % = Gore/(Gore+Bush)
Kerry % = Kerry/(Kerry +Bush)

......Gore% Kerry % DIFF
AL 42.86% 40.00% -2.86
AK 32.18% 38.50% 6.32
AZ 46.88% 48.50% 1.63
AR 47.42% 49.15% 1.73
CA 55.79% 54.00% -1.79

CO 45.16% 50.00% 4.84
CT 59.57% 53.50% -6.07
DE 56.70% 56.50% -0.20
DC 90.43% 88.50% -1.93
FL 49.95% 50.15% 0.20

GA 43.88% 41.50% -2.38
HI 60.22% 53.50% -6.72
ID 29.47% 35.00% 5.53
IL 56.12% 57.00% 0.88
IN 41.84% 44.00% 2.16

IA 50.52% 51.85% 1.33
KS 38.95% 40.00% 1.05
KY 41.84% 41.50% -0.34
LA 45.92% 42.00% -3.92
ME 52.69% 52.50% -0.19

MD 58.33% 55.50% -2.83
MA 64.52% 63.00% -1.52
MI 52.58% 53.30% 0.72
MN 51.06% 53.40% 2.34
MS 41.41% 34.50% -6.91

MO 48.45% 50.20% 1.75
MT 36.26% 40.00% 3.74
NE 34.74% 35.50% 0.76
NV 47.92% 50.30% 2.38
NH 49.47% 52.30% 2.83

NJ 58.33% 52.00% -6.33
NM 50.05% 54.85% 4.80
NY 63.16% 59.50% -3.66
NC 43.43% 47.00% 3.57
ND 35.11% 36.00% 0.89

OH 47.92% 44.55% -3.37
OK 38.78% 40.50% 1.72
OR 50.05% 54.85% 4.80
PA 52.58% 51.40% -1.18
RI 65.59% 62.00% -3.59

SC 41.84% 44.50% 2.66
SD 38.78% 43.00% 4.22
TN 47.96% 45.20% -2.76
TX 39.18% 38.00% -1.18
UT 27.96% 27.50% -0.46

VT 55.43% 57.50% 2.07
VA 45.83% 48.00% 2.17
WA 52.63% 54.25% 1.62
WV 46.94% 45.50% -1.44
WI 50.05% 50.00% -0.05
WY 29.17% 30.00% 0.83

AVG 48.12% 48.27% 0.15

I expect Kerry to approach the debates much differently than Gore, and to rattle W's teeth.

Looking pretty good... :)

Otherwise why bow out of one of the debates.

I hope Kerry says he plans on being there to answer questions and hopes Bush will reconsider and join him.

when we need to do "better" than winning an election to take back the White House...

Thanks for posting this.

compared to Gore and with a better position of voter support. Negate any other Bush featherbedding you hear on TV. This is rock solid. It is incredible they can ignore the comparison that practically gives the election to Kerry at this point. Yet most DUers want them down on their knees begging forgiveness and offering US comfort?

Bush and allies and collaborators acting as one would expect. And losing- so watch out for more garbage. I'd rather see Rove in action than see nothing but smiles of confidence and indolent Bush campaigning.

will win by more than Gore did.