North Carolina: 75% of 2004 total votes have already voted as of this morning

PolNewf

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Sun Nov-02-08 12:07 PM
Original message

North Carolina: 75% of 2004 total votes have already voted as of this morning

Party ID of voters:
Dem 50.8%
Rep 30.6%
Ind 18.5%

Age
18-29 15.0% (this jumped from 11% a few days ago)
30-44 23.4%
45-64 40.0%
65+ 21.5%

Race
White 69.6%
Black 26.1% (22% of population)
Other 4.3%

Sex
Men 42.9% 42.9%
Women 56.3% 56.6%
Unk 0.1% 0.4%

Ballot
Absentee 10.5% 13.1%
One-Stop 89.5% 86.9%

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

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GalleryGod

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Sun Nov-02-08 12:08 PM
Response to Original message

1. Oh, Lawdy! Get your life vest, Libby!

:woohoo:

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Smuckies

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Sun Nov-02-08 12:09 PM
Response to Original message

2. Woah, amazing. We'll win NC for sure.

:bounce:

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grantcart

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Sun Nov-02-08 12:27 PM
Response to Original message

3. There are 532,222 more Democrats than Republicans that have voted already

Almost 800,000 more Democrats have voted in early voting than in 2004

Independent votes in 2004 154,275

Independent votes in 2008 202,418 increse 48,143

Republican votes in 2004 409,213

Republican votes in 2008 814,299 increase 405,086

Democratic votes in 2004 531,758

Democratic votes in 2008 1,330,555 increase 798,797

McCain will have to get more than 66% of the votes on election day to win North Carolina and save his campaign.

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PolNewf

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Sun Nov-02-08 12:27 PM
Response to Original message

4. Using Rasmussen latest poll percentages

Total Early votes: 2,661,110

Dem (50.8%): 1,351,844
Rep (30.6%): 814,300
Ind (18.5%): 492,305

Obama
Dem (87%): 1,176,104
Rep (7%) : 57,001
Ind (46%): 226,460

McCain
Dem (13%): 175,740
Rep (93%): 757,299
Ind (54%): 265,845

Obama : 1,459,566 (54.8%)
McCain : 1,198,883 (45.1%)
Difference: 260,682 (9.8%)

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Tribetime

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Sun Nov-02-08 12:30 PM
Response to Original message

5. I love that # for women turnout

man could this end early?

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FVZA_Colonel

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Sun Nov-02-08 12:38 PM
Response to Original message

6. It looks like the early youth vote is, at least, not going to drop off from previous levels.

Edited on Sun Nov-02-08 12:44 PM by FVZA_Colonel

I imagine we will see an overall gain in youth early voting, but a small one compared to other groups. Where we'll really see the surge is on November 4th, and in Absentee ballots.

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PolNewf

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Sun Nov-02-08 12:57 PM
Response to Original message

7. Going from my last numbers McCain needs a huge election day margin

If turnout doesn't change this year that would leave 25% of the vote remaining. McCain would need to win that 25% by 30 points (65%-35%).
If turnout increaes by 10% this year that would leave ~32% of the vote remaining. McCain would need to win that 32% by 22 points (61%-39%).
If turnout increaes by 20% this year that would leave ~38% of the vote remaining. McCain would need to win that 38% by 18 points (59%-41%).

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