Your gut feeling as of today on EV's

I note that the RCP count dropped to 291 today. I'm still sticking with 306.

I'll bet all the Kerry states and OH, VA, IA, NM, and CO

If you answer the survey, please weigh in with your guess on battleground states.

I'd also be curious, regardless of what you think the final EV count is, to learn your answer to the number of EVs that it would take for Obama to claim a mandate -- a sign that the American people want fundamental change, not merely a new executive.

VA, NC, GA, FL, PA, OH, IN, MO, CO, NM, NV, AZ.

Essentially, I am putting more stock in the +17% line in the polls labeled "Already Voted" than in the rest of the polling.

Which is still a big win! I think it will be Obama 294 to McCain 244. I don't know what is still considered a battleground state, but I think Obama will get North Dakota. McCain will get Florida, Missouri, Indiana, Montana,Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio. Obama will win Virginia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Colorado. As for a mandate, I think that depends more on the popular vote than the EV results. I think something like 56% for Obama would be a mandate.

Essentially, 291 is "their final answer"

We've pretty much seen that 291 as the Worst Case Scenario for weeks.

There are still quite a few "undecideds" there and I'm going to guess most of them will vote for McCain.

Even if undecided break 4-1 for McSame, Obama would win

OTOH, Mason Dixon has McSame up 2.

I'm not buying it. I bet as many stay home or ultimately vote Obama as break for McCain.

take heart, read this from Columbus Dispatch:

The winner of the last Dispatch Poll before a presidential election has carried the state every time in modern Ohio history, although the final survey was a dead heat four years ago between Sen. John Kerry and President Bush, who won by 2.1 percentage points.

If Obama's lead of 52 percent to 46 percent in the new poll holds, he would become the first Democrat to win more than 50 percent of the Ohio vote since Lyndon B. Johnson did in 1964.

The survey shows he has sprinted to a 14-point lead among those who already have cast a ballot under Ohio's new early-voting law, and he is up by a ratio of almost 3-to-1 with voters who registered for the first time this year. Such voters now make up about 10 percent of the electorate.



http://www.dispatchpolitics.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/11/02/copy/POLL02.ART_ART_11-02-08_A1_93BOK6G.html?adsec=politics&sid=101

Because Obama doesn't need it to win. Also, I think the old axiom about the winner always winning Ohio will be turned on its head this time. This is an unusual election and old patterns will be broken. We have an African-American who has motivated Af-Am to vote like in no other presidential election and we have the Republican party at a very low approval rating.

heh, I wonder why, lol.

Which is Kerry + IA, CO, and NM.

My best is 391.

Perhaps I'm too optimtistic about 1-2 states, but I don't care if I'm wrong - when Obama is elected president ;)

I'm betting somewhere between high 200's (270+) and low 300's. While it appears to be possible for Obama to have a complete "blowout", I think that the more likely scenario, accounting for electoral shenanigans, possibly lower-than-expected youth turnout, and the massive amount of smearing that Obama has received, is that he will win comfortably but probably without a massive landslide. I do NOT think it will be close and I think he will win by a wide enough margin that it will be difficult for McCain et. al to demand a recount/challenge the results.

I'm tending conservative too. Of the 291 it seems he pretty much has, I'm giving McCain all the other undecided states (as shown on www.pollster.com) except for North Dakota. That would result in 294 for Obama. Oh, and I'm giving Ohio to McCain.

Ed Schultz? The proximity to Canadian healthcare? What is causing that state (and Montana) to drift Blue?

I'm really pretty astonished by it. It's not like N. Dakota has had a big influx of people from blue states (that I know of).

Obama could lose ALL of the current "toss ups" AND even Pennsylvania and still win in a
"squeaker" 270-268. For that to happen, however, I think that the polls would've had to tighten (in reality not fantasy-land) considerably within this last week and, despite some crap polls, it did not appear to happen. I don't honestly think it's going to be THAT close however. Some of those "toss ups" states are undoubtedly going to fall to Obama and I DOUBT that Pennsylvania will go to McCain/Palin so I believe that he will at least get 270+.

There's no way Obama can lose unless there is election fraud.

I believe the Republicans and media will set the bar ridiculously high by claiming anything less than 400+ EVs isn't a mandate so that Obama will have no way of coming close to *their* expectations.

If Bush can claim a 2% "mandate" in 2004 and even a 0% popular "mandate" in 2000, then Obama can claim a whatever percentage win (whatever it may end up being) as a "mandate" as well and I sincerely hope that nobody fails to mention that to the corporate media whores when they inevitably bring it up.

It's become increasingly obvious over the course of this election that the corporate media whores in concert with the Repugs will continue to bait and hound Obama/Biden and the Democratic Congress and it will be incumbent on each and every one of us to continue to organize and push back against them if we are to move forward with bringing much needed CHANGE about in this country. Otherwise, there is the good possibility of some kind of orchestrated Repug resurgence in 2-4 years that will seek to drag the country backwards like they did once after the 1994 mid-term elections and then again after 2000. I believe that we MUST look at an Obama/Democratic victory as "the beginning of the end" and not the END.

I think Obama "gets it" and won't rest on his laurels but he and Biden are going to need each and every one of us just as much as he has during this GE period. He and Biden and even a Democratic Congress (that will still have a modest number of Repugs, "Blue Dogs", and LOSERMAN) won't be able to do it alone and they shouldn't have to. We've ponied up with our donations and votes but to achieve success we must NOT let our guard down and continue to work to achieve the kind of change that Obama has inspired us all to believe in.

All of our roles will continue on after the election. As Obama has said before, he's looking to let citizens actually participate (in a greater capacity than now) in their government again. That means we'll have to be there, telling our thoughts and plans.

And as far as mandates go, it doesn't really matter to me. Like you said - a win is a win. I don't care how much he wins by, as long as we can make it happen.

...and this ain't scientific or being done for a poli-sci grade.

Kerry + IO, NM, CO, NV, MT, ND, MO, IN, OH, VA, NC, FL. Maybe GA.

Less optimistic scenario has us losing FL and being around 300ish.

More optimistic has us winning some portion of IN, OH, MO and/or GA to put us closer to 400 EVs.

IA, CO, and NM really have put the pressure on McCain though. He really HAS to win PA or it's over for him, if we hold there, and we will, it's over. We don't even have to win VA, NC, GA, IN, OH, FL, MO or NV.

FL would be a great payback for 2000.

270-280.

Anything more will be icing on the cake.

Simply because I'd rather lowball expectations (better for my nerves, lol) and so I can feel all giddily shocked if he exceeds that..:P

and especially FLA in the bag.

I don't even think we need to sweat NM, nor CO for that matter.

And my secret obsession, as a resident of AZ, is see it as close as humanly possible, maybe even turn blue, finally.

AT LEAST! FL will be close, GA, too. But the rest will be in the bag.

And that includes the possibility of Florida being stolen (because that's 27 chickens I won't count until they're hatched, plucked, and fried)

If it's anything under that, not only has it been partially stolen, but we're gonna have to hear horseshit about ACORN and other right wing myths for the next 8 years, as opposed to any real discussion of the ACTUAL theft that took place.

Kerry states plus: Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, Iowa, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.

Lurking Freepers?

Election Theft Fear?

I'm giving Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, and possibly Florida to McCain... ever other swing/battle state to Obama.

:grr:

but we won't need them.

I'm predicting Kerry states + IA, NV, CO, NM, VA, OH, FL.

I'm a pessimist.