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**********What are your elecoral/Popular vote predictions**********

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book_worm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-02-08 04:08 PM
Original message
**********What are your elecoral/Popular vote predictions**********
I've finally made mine:

Obama: 53%
McCain: 45%

As usual the electoral vote would reflect a 8-point national victory:

Obama: 402 McCain: 136
(Obama wins Kerry states plus: Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, Iowa, New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, and thanks to an energized black turnout--Georgia)

In 1988, Bush I beat Dukakis by 53-45 and took EV 427-109.

What are your predictions?
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dmallind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-02-08 04:13 PM
Response to Original message
1. 52-46 and 364-174
Edited on Sun Nov-02-08 04:14 PM by dmallind
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-02-08 04:14 PM
Response to Original message
2. Obama 51.5, McCain 45.2....Obama 352, McCain 186
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Lakerstan Donating Member (599 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-02-08 04:22 PM
Response to Original message
3. Obama - 326, McCain - 212 - and that's skewing things toward McCain...
Giving McCain Indiana, Missouri, Florida and Georgia off of your list. Not saying Obama can't/won't win them - just cautiously optimistic (mini-concern troll living in my brain).

Popular: 51% Obama, 46% McCain, the rest for Barr, etc...
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Motown_Johnny Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-02-08 04:32 PM
Response to Original message
4. 52-47-1 with 286 EV.. yes it is conservative but it is still a win
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deadmessengers Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-02-08 04:33 PM
Response to Original message
5. Obama wins 50-47, 291-247
Obama wins all the Kerry states + Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Nevada, and Virginia.
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Dawgs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-02-08 04:36 PM
Response to Original message
6. O 52.5 M 46.5
EV 336-212
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Lakerstan Donating Member (599 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-02-08 05:05 PM
Response to Original message
7. Check out what the pundits think:
Edited on Sun Nov-02-08 05:06 PM by Lakerstan
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/opinions/pages/pundit-predictions/index.html

Click on each name to see how they predict the electoral/popular vote

Or click here:

http://news.aol.com/elections/article/pundits-make-election-predictions/235299?icid=100214839x1212651039x1200771978
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book_worm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-02-08 06:33 PM
Response to Reply #7
14. Very interesting.
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pot luck Donating Member (326 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-02-08 05:10 PM
Response to Original message
8. PV: O 52.2 - M 46.1, EV: O 322 - M 216
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-02-08 05:17 PM
Response to Original message
9. O 56% M 42% EV Obama 397 McCain 141

I am speculating that many McCain supporters and undecideds are going to be discouraged by the long lines to vote, especially in the big blue states like CA and NY, if they haven't voted by absentee many will just stay home.
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Darian Donating Member (37 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-02-08 05:30 PM
Response to Original message
10. O: 53% 396 EV, M: 44%142 EV
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HughMoran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-02-08 05:33 PM
Response to Original message
11. 5-6 points, 311 EV's
I'll gladly err on the side of caution every time though - it's in my nature.
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Stop Cornyn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-02-08 05:44 PM
Response to Original message
12. I like your EV numbers, but I'm expecting Obama - 347 EVs, 52%; McCain - 191 EVs, 46%
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blue_onyx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-02-08 06:03 PM
Response to Original message
13. Obama 55% vs. McCain 44%
EV: Obama 399 vs. McCain 139

Kerry states plus: Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, Iowa, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.
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Tribetime Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-02-08 06:37 PM
Response to Original message
15. Obama 54.38% 380-400 elecoral
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