New Electoral Vote Count

DC's political Report has Kerry leading in Electoral Votes, both in states leaning towards Kerry, plus in states too close to tell:


Kerry:

15 States for 201 Electoral Votes:

12 States for 183 EV Outside Polling Margin Of Error

3 States for 18 Electoral Votes Within Margin of Error

Bush:

19 States for 182 Electoral Votes:

18 States for 174 EV outside of Margin of Error

1 State for 8 EV within Margin of Error

12 States too close to tell have 138 Electoral Votes:

Kerry leads in 9 of these states for 106 EV

Bush leads in 2 of these states for 23 EV

1 State Kerry and Bush tied for 9 EV


5 States with No polls for 17 EV

2 states likely for Kerry for 6 EV

3 States Likely for Bush for 11 EV


TOTALS

Kerry - 313 EV

Bush - 216 EV


lets say we give Bush the state that is tied, and Bush has 225 EV.

This is the first electoral vote calculation on DC's political report that has Kerry leading Bush by a significant margin in the electoral college when ALL of the electoral voteds are added up. Though Kerry has had a lead instates that have been certain blue, up until this week, DC's report totals when adding states too close to tell and states that have no polls had Bush in the lead by anyhere from 10 to 25 electoral votes. This weeks calcualtion of EV's now has Kerry well ahead in electoral votes. This electoral vote calculation is based on state polls as of September 7th.

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm

DC's Political Report polls for the Electoral College usually leads other polling sites, reporting trends earlier than other sites, But other sites are starting to come around showing a Kerry lead in Electoral Votes again:

Electoral Vote.com (Date Sept 8)

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 264 Bush 222

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

These are the two most recent electoral college predictors, nasing the predictions on the latest state polls. The other projection polls are anywhere from three to seven days old now.

It seems that things are starting to go back to where they were before the Republican convention. The electoral-vote also has Kerry leading again. Rasmussen has new tracking numbers by states which show things going back to Kerry's side.

The two latest web sites that project electoral college votes done yesterday and today suddenly have Kerry leading again, while several othere like election projection and robert silvey were last updated on September 2nd and September 5th.

The effects of crossing the magic 1000 threshold in Iraq, the less than spectacular economic data of the last few days, recent release of reports questioning Bush's military record (and the inconsistance between Bush's most recent statements about his record and the actual record) Seem to be bringing a number of people back around from Bush to Kerry again.

Arkansas leans Bush, not Kerry, according to Zogby. http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com has it backwards.

But even Zogby is pointing out the strong possibility of a Kerry electoral coollege win:

To analyze Zogby's results, we start by assuming that the District of Columbia and the 34 states that aren't in the battlegrounds poll will vote for the same political party that they did in the 2000 election. Thus, President Bush begins our calculations with 189 electoral votes and Mr. Kerry with 172. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the White House.

Then, we add in the electoral votes from the latest poll, regardless of the margin of error or the spread between the candidates. Mr. Kerry's 12 states control a total of 135 votes, while Mr. Bush's four have 42. If you add up the numbers, you find that Mr. Kerry would win the Electoral College 307-231....

And, of course, even with his convention-time gains, the president is still short of the strongest results he got in earlier Zogby polls. At one point in June, Mr. Kerry was ahead just nine states to seven -- and Mr. Bush led the Electoral College analysis, 285-253.


http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-an0907.html

It appears that Kerry/Edwards are taking a page from the Karl ROve playbook, and have begun attacking Bush's suppoosed strong point, atacking his strength in the area of terrorism and tearing it to pieces in the latest Kerry television advertisements.

In the last two days, Kerry has reveresed a number of leads Bush took in a number of battleground states:

Kerry is now ahead in Florida,Missouri,New Hampshire,Michigan, Pennsylvania,Nevada, Wisconsin, Minnisota, Iowa, Mew Mexico,Oregon,Maine and Washington. Last week at this time, more than half of these states had Bush leading in them. Less than a week after the convention, and the Bush bounce seems to have begun to disappear in many all of these states, while Kerry is beginning to get gain leads of the same percentage points that he had just after his own convention in July. According to Zogby's polls, anyway.

In fact, if you go back to the period between Kerry slecting Edwards and just after his own convention, Kerry's polling numbers in the battleground states as of the latest ZOgby polls are beginning to resemble the polling data from that time.

Zogby indicated last week that he didnt think the polls showing Bush with double digit leads were accurate, pointed out how they got those numbers today, and we now are seeing the results that Zogby predicted the day after the REpublican convention ended. Zogby predicted that Bush would actually get a 4 or 5 point bounce after the convention that would last for several days and then everything would go back to the way it wasbefore the convention. A number of polls, like ARG and others are beginning to show the same thing. National polls tend to follow state polls so as more state polls start reflecting Kerry leads, the national polls should show similar results.

THe anniversary of 9/11 coming up, with Osama bin Laden and those who actually planned, financed and trained people for the attacks on America still free, will be a rather stark reminder that the war in Iraq is doing nothing to keep us safe from terrorism. Passing the 1000 mark in American dead so close to this anniversary should also have a negative effect on Bush's polling numbers. Along with the media rehashing Bush's military record, with help from "Texans for Truth" should give Bush the same porblems that Swift Boat Veterans" gave Kerry.

Bush's attempts to avoid debating Kerry might not have an effect on Bush's base,but the undecided swing voters might well be effected by such blatent political cowardice.

I thought that was a swing state, but suddenly it is 'strong bush'? And the most recent is Zogby, which everyone here seems to like.