IMO, no states will be called outright unless the difference in exit polling is huge

thesubstanceofdreams

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Sun Nov-02-08 06:33 PM
Original message

IMO, no states will be called outright unless the difference in exit polling is huge

Given the fiascoes with exit polling, I don't think the networks will call any states as soon as polls close, unless the difference in their exit polls is huge (at least 10 points) and consistent with pre-election polls. So don't freak out if PA, VA, etc, are not called for Obama outright (If NY is not called outright for Obama then definitely freak out; if states like SC are not called for McPalin outright that's good as it means it's not a blowout there).

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FLyellowdog

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Sun Nov-02-08 06:35 PM
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1. How can the exit polls be accurate with so many voting early?

Is there some kind of formula they'll be using to take that into account?

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OmahaBlueDog

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Sun Nov-02-08 06:40 PM
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2. Agreed --- anything in the "solid" column will get called

States like OH, FL, PA, MO, NC, VA won't get called until at least 10-11 Eastern.

I think networks are going to be very guarded about early voting returns because we really don't know if the upward trend in early Democratic voting is merely enthusiasm that will be countered on Tuesday, or a trend that will carry into Tuesday.

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book_worm

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Sun Nov-02-08 06:41 PM
Response to Original message

3. that usually is how it goes. Otherwise it will either be "too early to call" or "too close to call"

and they will wait for the actual vote count before calling.

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