EXIT POLLS CLAIM OBAMA +15 IN PA... DEVELOPING...

Unsane

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Tue Nov-04-08 05:47 PM
Original message

EXIT POLLS CLAIM OBAMA +15 IN PA... DEVELOPING...

Edited on Tue Nov-04-08 05:48 PM by Unsane

game over

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LiberteToujours

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Tue Nov-04-08 05:48 PM
Response to Original message

1. omfglolcats

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kwolf68

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Tue Nov-04-08 05:48 PM
Response to Original message

2. Why would he post news like this?

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Unsane

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Tue Nov-04-08 05:49 PM
Response to Reply #2

5. because it's news, and it's breaking

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Katha

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Tue Nov-04-08 05:49 PM
Response to Original message

3. EXIT POLLS ARE NOT RELIABLE.

That being said, Obama will definitely take PA.

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Tempest

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Tue Nov-04-08 05:50 PM
Response to Reply #3

8. Democrats are more likely to answer exit poll questions

If people get excited about the exit polls, they're going to biting their fingernails when the real votes come in.

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pnwmom

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Tue Nov-04-08 05:53 PM
Response to Reply #8

15. Actually, there's no evidence to back that up.

Why do the pollsters who did the exit polling say that? Because they started out with a premise: that the 2004 vote results were CORRECT, and that that the exit polls had been wrong. After eliminating other possibilities, the only one left was that Democrats are more likely to answer the questions.

In other words, from the outset they eliminated the possibility that election fraud had anything to do with the discrepancies. So all we have is some circular reasoning here -- and no facts with which to back it up.

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Tempest

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Tue Nov-04-08 06:00 PM
Response to Reply #15

18. Actually, there is

Edited on Tue Nov-04-08 06:01 PM by Tempest

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit.html

2. Exit polls have consistently overstated the Democratic share of the vote. Many of you will recall this happening in 2004, when leaked exit polls suggested that John Kerry would have a much better day than he actually had. But this phenomenon was hardly unique to 2004. In 2000, for instance, exit polls had Al Gore winning states like Alabama and Georgia (!). If you go back and watch The War Room, you'll find George Stephanopolous and James Carville gloating over exit polls showing Bill Clinton winning states like Indiana and Texas, which of course he did not win.

Rasmussen also found it to be the case:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/beware_of_exit_polls

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Phredicles

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Tue Nov-04-08 06:29 PM
Response to Reply #3

24. Sure, but how far off could it be?

I mean, even if it's wrong by 14%, we're still in good shape...

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beachmom

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Tue Nov-04-08 05:49 PM
Response to Original message

4. Subtract at least 7 points. Exit polls are highly unreliable.

They were unreliable in '04, and in the primaries. And even adjusting is not what is recommended. Basically, I give these numbers little credence.

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high density

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Tue Nov-04-08 05:49 PM
Response to Original message

6. My ass claims Obama +95 in PA

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rucky

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Tue Nov-04-08 05:51 PM
Response to Reply #6

11. Watch out for Scranton

I hear it sucks ass.

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Tesibria

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Tue Nov-04-08 05:50 PM
Response to Original message

7. Gawker says only 4% - where are you getting your numbers

cause I'm .. throwing up
http://gawker.com/5076425/first-state-exit-poll-numbers-are-tighter-than-recent-polling

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maseman

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Tue Nov-04-08 05:50 PM
Response to Original message

9. stop stop STOP!

Nothing is over until the final results are in. Sorry but FUCK exit polls.

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Mz Pip

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Tue Nov-04-08 05:51 PM
Response to Original message

10. He claimed Kerry was winning, too

I don't trust anything from Drudge.

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Cattledog

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Tue Nov-04-08 05:51 PM
Response to Original message

12. Exit polls are Bullshit!

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stillcool

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Tue Nov-04-08 05:52 PM
Response to Reply #12

13. in other countries they are used...

to detect fraud. I guess our country is different, but I can't imagine why. Can you?

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high density

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Tue Nov-04-08 05:53 PM
Response to Reply #13

16. Well our country is full of wussy Repukes who evidently don't want to admit

that they've voted for McCain or Bush.

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stillcool

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Tue Nov-04-08 06:23 PM
Response to Reply #16

19. For 4 years?

Edited on Tue Nov-04-08 06:24 PM by stillcool47

wasn't that when exit polls became unreliable?

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FVZA_Colonel

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Tue Nov-04-08 05:52 PM
Response to Original message

14. Remember what Nate said about Exit Polls:

IGNORE THEM!: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit.html

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Arkana

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Tue Nov-04-08 05:54 PM
Response to Original message

17. IT'S DRUDGE.

DO NOT BELIEVE THIS EVEN FOR A SECOND.

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adoraz

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Tue Nov-04-08 06:26 PM
Response to Reply #17

21. what advantage does he have lying about something like this?

Edited on Tue Nov-04-08 06:27 PM by adoraz

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Nia Zuri

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Tue Nov-04-08 06:29 PM
Response to Reply #21

25. Polls aren't closed, people won't bother to stand in line if they think

it's a blow out. It's close, people need to hold on and keep voting!!

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adoraz

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Tue Nov-04-08 06:33 PM
Response to Reply #25

26. yeah, but that is probably true for both dems and republicans

if republicans know it will be a blow out, they wouldn't want to bother either.

I agree with you though. Lets keep voting!!!!!

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adoraz

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Tue Nov-04-08 06:25 PM
Response to Original message

20. for those saying exit polls are BS

they may be, to an extent, but 15% is a HUGE lead. Even if it is way off, this is still great news.

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alcibiades_mystery

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Tue Nov-04-08 06:27 PM
Response to Original message

22. PA polls NOT closed...get out and vote...nothing automatic!!!

Go go go.

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Nia Zuri

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Tue Nov-04-08 06:27 PM
Response to Original message

23. So no need to vote?

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