POLL: Tweety trails Specter by 13 points in PA. 33% undecided.

Lots of Undecideds in Matthews/Specter Match

Raleigh, N.C. – A Public Policy Polling survey of Pennsylvania voters conducted shortly
before last week’s election found that MSNBC host Chris Matthews would have a shot if
he ran as a Democrat for the US Senate against long time Republican incumbent Arlen
Specter in 2010.

Specter polls at just 40% in a potential match up with Matthews. That’s still a 13 point
lead over the potential challenger, who gets 27%, but 33% of the electorate is undecided
about how they would vote in such a contest, an indication that they’re at least open to
the thought of supporting Matthews.

There is good news and bad news for a possible Matthews candidacy within the numbers.
30% of Democrats say they would support Specter if Matthews was the candidate. He
would likely have difficulty winning if he didn’t have his party more lined up behind him
than that. At the same time 32% of Republicans say they’re not sure who they would
vote for in such a contest, an indication that his celebrity could make it possible for him
to win some crossover support.

“Arlen Specter would definitely start out as the favorite if Chris Matthews challenged
him,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But this poll provides
clear evidence that a Matthews candidacy is not a non-starter. Pennsylvania voters would
listen to what he has to say and give him a shot.”

Matthews is most popular with young voters, among whom he has a 33-20 advantage.
Specter does well with older voters, leading 54-23.

PPP surveyed 1,529 likely voters from October 31st to November 2nd. The survey’s
margin of error is +/-2.5%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and
weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Complete results are attached and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MatthewsSpecter.pdf

gushing on about his man crushes will be embarrassing. If I lived in PA I think I'd skip over that race on the ballot.

If Matthews stand on the issues were agreeable, I'd consider him.

Unless, of course, that particular election were, say, two whole years into the future. If that were the case, a 40 to 27 advantage for Specter is practically meaningless--except that he's vulnerable.

Now I could be proven wrong, but based on the history of PA senate races, and all of Matthews skeletons, I don't think he can win.

He's shown himself as too much of a liberal with his current job, and against a moderate like Specter (who has constantly faced challenges from the right, only narrowly surviving by 2% in the 2004 primaries) it's just poison and suicide.

PA is still a swing state, and Bob Casey who we elected to the senate in 2006 was the first democrat to win a senate race in the state in like four decades.

Celebrity politicians also have a horrible track record in our state, and that's exactly what Matthews would be, a celebrity politician. I can't think of a single one who's been elected to statewide office. In 2006 the republicans tried to run a football player for governor, hoping that he could steal the black vote away because he was black, but he got creamed in the black vote by the usual margins, and lost 2 to 1 overall to Rendell.

As a PAer I'd MUCH rather have our governor, Ed Rendell (who's term limited in 2010, when we elect a new governor) run for the senate. But the problem is Ed Rendell has already said he's not interested in running for public office again (though he did say it years ago, so maybe he could change his mind, I hope he does).

One of the problems for us in PA at finding a good candidate to run is that most of the good democrats are interested in running for Governor, not senator.

Mark my words, the only way Matthews is going to stand a chance at winning the senate seat is if the republicans defeat Specter for us in the primaries, and therefore run a hardcore neocon in the general election.

because he will actually energize conservatives about the "liberal media" myth. Also, I will not forgive him for his shenanigans in the primary. I will move to PA and vote Specter because of Tweety's two decades of Clinton-hatred, mostly conservatism until he thought it wasn't fashionable to be a con. Matthews is a conservative in Democrat clothing.