Coffee Time: "Looking ahead to 2010" and beyond

I know I've ticked a few DUrs off by suggesting this election was more of a shift back to "the middle" than a shift to the left, but that's simply because I think we're still in very reactionary times and still undoing some of the "culture wars" and Reagan era mania. We're still somewhere around where the electorate was in 1992 going by this NY Times map.


But here's the good news as I see it.

I think the GOP tossed out the more inclusive Reagan era "coalition" that included moderate Democrats and independents for a more divisive "culture wars" coalition starting in 1994. This is why the social conservatives and religious-right have been able to gain power and redefine the "base" on their terms. It's much more about identity politics than real policy ideas. In fact, the policy ideas have been empty rhetoric about trickle down economics, meritocracy, "all government is bad" laissez faire libertarianism, and growing strains of both nativism and theocracy. What's really been pulling all these different philosophies and camps together is a raw "culture wars" circling of the wagons to fight the evil "liberals."

The good news is that coalition has collapsed... with unprecedented mutiny from the moderates and more pragmatic fiscal conservatives who are obviously tired of all the nearly fascist rhetoric and culture wars non-sense.

If you see what I am saying there and appreciate that good news, let's chew on the fact that this does NOT mean those same folks are all suddenly "progressives." The collapse of some of the far-right ideology does not mean a zero-sum game gain for progressives.

It does put progressives right now at the helm... and allows Obama to redefine the "center" on progressive terms. :)

More good news.

Obama won without winning white voters. 74% of the electorate was white, compared to 81% in 2000. This is the future, as uncomfortable as that may be for the "majority." Obama brought in 67% of hispanics (a 17% jump). He brought in 95% of blacks. He brought in 78% of jews. Etc. This coalition of "ethnic" america is very significant... and not going to vanish. As an aside, I find the term "ethnic" problematic, because it implies there is something "non-ethnic"... but that's for "white america" to figure out.

I think this combined with the collapse of mainstream credibility for some key pillars of the Conservative ideology makes for a compelling moment in which Obama could easily stay in office for 8 years followed by another 8 years of Biden. EASILY. This would require them simply being extreme pragmatists and not being seen as ideologues.

The left has better, more pragmatic ideas. The moderate Republicans will want to be part of serious governing... and will continue to abandon the culture wars.

THE BAD NEWS

The culture wars aren't over. Obama only won 53% of the population. Mccain still brought in 58 million votes in spite of the endless reasons not to vote for Mccain/Palin. Many people still are ignorant about how the world, our economy and our government function. Many many people still buy into raw meritocracy, laissez faire ideology and even trickle down economics. We've yet to fully break away from the shackles of 19th century simplifications of how the world operates. "Mixed economy" still sounds like "socialism" to a very large portion of the population.

A significant chunk of America thinks this nation is supposed to be a 1950s christian capitalist fantasy, run by moral christian leaders where all our problems are merely "natural business cycles." There's a moral imperative for these patriotic people to have consumer confidence. Oy veh.

A significant chunk of America literally feels like they are "at war" in terms of CIVILIZATION being at stake. Secular society, the war on terror, globalization, atheism, diversity, etc... these things all combine together to feel like a real threat to their entire way of life. They will fight back, even if they aren't clear on exactly why they are so scared.

Let's be clear on this.

There are enough people like this to usher in a 1994-style backlash lead by the same types of demagogues who supported the original (i.e. Rush, Hannity, etc). The coalition may never be as strong or as broad, but that doesn't mean they cant dig in their heels and fight back. That doesn't mean they don't hold enough sway in many parts of the country to stir up just enough support to take back significant seats in Congress... especially in the House.

The economy isn't likely to become very rosey over the next 2 years, folks. Expectations are a tad too high right now, and we're in a position where the back-lash can be predictably driven by snide "where's my change?" slogans. Even if Obama and the Dems do a fairly competent job steering us through these next 20 months or so, that doesn't mean the people in these "purple" areas will all see it that way.

Our preemptive response?


Those red areas almost directly correlate to democratic incumbent congressional seats. I assume those were the most nasty advertisement areas for anti-Obama propaganda, as well.

1. We're not going to be able to "defeat" the nativist or white christian pastoral nationalist sentiments. All the fear and emotion underlying the perceptions of "pro-America" and "real america" and... how only rural white christian america is authentic... is not going away. This will INTENSIFY in the coming years for a chunk of alienated whites.

What needs to be understood is the nature of that alienation. Bashing it on the head will not work. What will help start to dissolve some of that alienation is a sense that they have a future in America, that the world won't end, that a secular public sphere & a diverse society can be a good thing. What might also help is breaking up this idea of "whiteness" by letting people embrace their own heritage, differences and complexities with more pride. Everybody knows Obama is part Kenyan, but he's also Irish, English and German. These people are alienated by their own loss of culture, their confusion about the future and place in the world. It's not a zero-sum war of civilization... although that's how they experience it right now. THIS WONT BE RESOLVED ANY TIME SOON, so we should expect to see more nasty stuff in the coming decade(s). Perhaps even an increase in domestic terrorism at the most extreme. Perhaps merely a more intense culture war backlash in some parts of the country.

2. The pendulum swings. Steam must be released. The "balance of power" argument will gain a lot of steam.

There will be some credible criticisms of WHATEVER Obama and the Dem Congress do in the coming 20 months. Depending on how the issues and criticisms get framed, that can mean votes going the other way. And those votes may not even represent a complete rejection of Obama. It may represent a simple interest in having more "balance" in Congress.

I read the other day that http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/11/11/one.party.poll/index.html">59% of Americans support a one-party rule right now. We're seeing the media already focused on this issue and it's not even 2009 yet. This will be how everything gets framed going into the next election... and the important issues will similarly be spun with that in mind.

Let's be frank... keeping that at 59% won't be easy.

That will require the Dems "governing from the center" and appearing to be entirely non-partisan and entirely pragmatic. Obama can easily maintain decent approval ratings moving ahead, but it will be far harder for the Congress to do so. I'm not sure what the solutions are given how unpredictable the future always is... given the big challenges ahead. But we can at least be more aware of what's at stake.

I think we'll see moderate Republicans in Congress absolutely desperate to break away from the reactionary social conservatives. They will want to hold onto their own power and they know they have to look non-partisan and pragmatic in the coming months. This is the common ground. This is how Dems hold onto power, ironically.

Embrace those mutinous Republicans. Embrace the Liebermans, too. TAKE THE MIDDLE... and be bi-partisan (with the handful of Republicans breaking rank). Help those GOP'rs call the bluff on the social conservatives. Help them redefine their own Party on more moderate terms. Even if this means allowing the moderate GOPers to maintain some seats in 2010 or to perhaps gain a few... the bigger win is 8-16 years of a center-left Government.